Tag: weather

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued January 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts wildfire potential will be higher than normal in the Southern Plains February through April, 2021. This will include portions of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Most of the southwest one-quarter of the United States is currently experiencing severe, extreme, or exceptional drought.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“La Niña will continue to significantly affect the weather and climate patterns through winter and into spring. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest through winter into spring with drying expected to increase across portions of the Plains and Southeast. Recent cool and wet weather in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic along with climate outlooks suggest normal to below normal significant fire potential is likely for large portions of the Southeast, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. However, an early and active start to the fire season is expected for the southern High Plains during late winter.

“Given the background drought and anticipated warmer and drier than normal conditions across the Southwest and southern Plains, significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal during the spring. Lower elevations in the Southwest are favored to have above normal significant fire potential beginning in March and April. Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and most of Texas are forecast to have an active spring fire season before green-up in March and April and possibly beginning as early as February. Above normal significant fire potential is also likely to extend north into southern Kansas and southeast Colorado in March and April.”

Continue reading “Wildfire potential expected to be above normal in Southern Plains, February through April”

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued December 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts wildfire potential will be higher than normal in the Southern Plains through March, 2021. This will include portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Most of the southwest one-quarter of the United States is currently experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“La Niña and current fuel conditions remain the principal drivers of significant fire potential into spring. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest into the winter with drying expected to increase across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast. Offshore wind events will continue to be a concern across southern California in December given the dry fuels and lack of forecast precipitation through early December. Wind events may also drive short duration large fire activity in portions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and northern California, especially at lower elevations.

“Warmer and drier than normal conditions are expected across the southern tier of the US this winter and into spring due to La Niña and other large-scale climate forcing. As a result, drought intensification and expansion across portions of the Plains, Southwest, southern California, Texas, and along the Gulf coast into Georgia are likely. Above normal significant fire potential is forecast in portions of the Southwest, southern and central Plains, and the Southern Area, especially near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts this winter into spring due to these warmer and drier conditions. Strong wind and low relative humidity (RH) events could occasionally increase significant fire potential in portions of the Great Basin as well.”

Continue reading “Higher than normal wildfire potential predicted for the Southern Plains through March, 2021”

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued November 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts wildfire potential will remain above normal in parts of California through November. The potential in the Southern Plains is likely to be above normal December through February.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“La Niña and current fuel conditions are the main drivers of significant fire potential through fall and winter. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest into the winter with drying expected to increase across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast. Offshore wind events will continue to be a concern across northern California in November and likely into December for southern California. Significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal in downslope and offshore wind favored locations in California during November. The focus will shift to southern California in December as precipitation is likely to quell large fire concerns across northern California by then.

“Over the winter, the expected warming and drying trend across the southern tier of the United States due to La Niña and other large-scale climate forcing will likely result in above normal significant fire potential in portions of the southern Plains. Drought intensification and expansion from the southern Plains into southern California is likely. Strong wind and low relative humidity events could occasionally increase fire activity in portions of the Great Basin and Southwest this fall into winter as well. However, outside of the southern Plains, significant fire potential will likely remain near normal for the rest of the United States.”