Tag: weather

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their forecasts are accurate, the three west coast states and the western portions of Idaho, Nevada, and Montana will have above normal wildfire activity into October.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

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July

– Higher than usual temperatures; minimal summer precipitation; and already dry fuels will combine to continue above normal potential across most of the pacific coast states, as well as the northern Rocky Mountains and northern and western Great Basin.

– Fuels that were exposed to drying earlier than usual as well as hot and dry conditions throughout May and June have led to above normal potential throughout Alaska.

– Abundant spring and early summer precipitation and moist fuels will alleviate much of the fire concern for the Rocky Mountains, Southwest, and areas east of the Mississippi.

August

– Much of the above normal area from July will linger into August, with the exception of some of northern California. Above normal conditions will spread slightly westward to encompass more of the Great Basin.

– Most of the areas experiencing below normal potential will return to a more normal condition, with only some of the Central Rockies and Ohio Valley below normal.

September through October

– Almost all of the above normal potential will return to normal through this period, leaving only far southern California as above normal.

– Below normal fall conditions will develop across inland portions of the southeast.

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UPDATE: And, as a bonus, here is the Drought Monitor that was released July 2, 2015. Portions of California, Nevada, and Oregon are in Extreme or Exceptional Drought. Nine of the eleven western states have areas in Severe Drought or worse.