Areas of Texas and Florida are under Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches today. In Texas the Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8 p.m. on Tuesday due to windy and dry conditions. In Florida the Red Flag Warnings are valid until 6 p.m. for St. Johns, Putnam, Flagler, and Marion counties, and until 7 p.m. in Polk County
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The map above was current as of 2:50 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for March through June, 2013. If the predictions are accurate the south part of Florida could be busy during the period, and activity in Minnesota, the southwest, and in parts of California should pick up later.
Below is an excerpt from the NIFC report:
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“The March, April and May through June 2013 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
March
February snow in the Plains and rain in the Southeast will keep fire potential normal to below normal, despite continuing drought conditions.
Very dry February for Florida will favor early start to season and increasing potential for significant fires.
April
Continuing rainfall deficits will keep significant fire potential above normal over most of Florida.
Despite February snows, soil moisture deficits in the Upper Midwest will increase significant fire potential as the snow cover dissipates.
Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will have below normal significant fire potential.
May and June
Dry fuels will drive above normal significant fire potential for central parts of the Southwest and mountains and foothills of southern California.
Above normal significant fire potential continues in Florida and on the lee side of Hawaii.
Significant fire potential will decrease to normal in the upper Midwest as greenup commences.”
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for some areas in southwest Texas until 6 p.m. CT today for strong winds and low humidites.
It as has been 1 year, 2 months, and 21 days since the U.S. Forest Service issued a solicitation for next-generation large air tankers, but no contracts have been awarded.
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The map above was current as of 10:20 a.m. MT on Thursday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued Red Flag Warnings for some areas in Texas and Alabama, and Fire Weather Watches for other areas in these states. I had to manipulate the colors in the map above in order to make it easier to see the Watch areas. Light yellow on light green is difficult to see on their original map.
The map below is produced by the NWS’ Storm Prediction Center, but uses the term “Critical Fire Weather” instead of Red Flag Warning.
Fire Weather outlook for February 20, 2013. Click to enlarge.
It as has been 1 year, 2 months, and 20 days since the U.S. Forest Service issued a solicitation for next-generation large air tankers, but no contracts have been awarded.
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The maps above were current as of 9:15 a.m. MT on Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
Areas in southern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas are under a Red Flag Warning today for strong winds and low relative humidities. In Arizona and New Mexico it is in effect from 1 p.m. until 7 p.m. MT, and in Texas, from noon until 6 p.m. MT.
The Prescott National Forest is working a fire (map), according to a report on Twitter from @SWCCNewsNotes at 10:24 a.m. today:
The fire was discovered late in the day on Monday, and firefighters planned to take suppression action on it Tuesday morning. It is located in Crooks Canyon, about 2.5 miles southwest of historic Palace Station. More info HERE about the Crooks Fire.
When wildfires start in these areas, firefighters need to keep in mind that the contracts for legacy large air tankers expired at the end of 2012, and currently no large air tankers are under national exclusive use contracts. It as has been 1 year, 2 months, and 19 days since the U.S. Forest Service issued a solicitation for next-generation large air tankers, but no contracts have been awarded.
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The map above was current as of 10:30 a.m. MT on Tuesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
From National Academy of Sciences. Map of changes in area burned for a 1ºC increase in global average temperature, shown as the percentage change relative to the median annual area burned during 1950-2003. Results are aggregated to ecoprovinces (Bailey, 1995) of the West. Changes in temperature and precipitation were aggregated to the ecoprovince level. Climate-fire models were derived from NCDC climate division records and observed area burned data following methods described in Littell et al. (2009). Source: Figure from Rob Norheim.
Most of us have heard the predictions that climate change and higher temperatures will increase the number of acres burned in wildfires. But I experienced a Holy Crap moment when I saw the map above that illustrates where those changes will occur and by how much. According to a National Academy of Sciences paper titled Climate stabilization targets: emissions, concentrations, and impacts over decades to millennia, a 1°C increase in global average temperature will cause the annual area burned in the western United States to rise from 74 percent to 656 percent relative to the median annual area burned during 1950-2003.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is reporting that last year was the hottest on record for the contiguous United States, shattering CRUSHING by a wide margin the previous record set in 1998. The average temperature of 55.3 degrees Fahrenheit was 1 degree above the previous record and 3.2 degrees higher than the average for the 20th century. That is a huge difference.
What is wrong with this picture: fires are getting larger, and budgets for fire suppression are decreasing. If the predictions are correct, the number of acres burned will continue to increase even more. The people that beg for our votes and then get sent to congress need to not just write strongly-worded letters about the shortage of fire suppression resources, they need to realize that they hold the purse strings and it is their job to actually take action by approving budgets and passing legislation, instead of what happened in December. Letters are meaningless, meant to be a smoke screen to obscure the reality that little is being accomplished.
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Below is a brief version of the paper referenced above:
