Wildfire potential, January through April, 2011

The National Interagency Fire Center has released their significant wildfire potential outlook for January through April. According to their analysis, the primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

• La Niña: An ongoing strong La Niña episode is expected to result in drier and eventually warmer than usual weather across the southern tier of states and into the southern & central Great Plains, contributing to increased fire potential.

• Drought: Persisting and developing drought across portions of the southern and central U.S. will promote above normal significant fire potential during the winter and north and westward expansion of this enhanced potential in early spring.

• Fuel Dryness: Increasing dryness across the southern tier of the U.S. this winter will expand above normal significant fire potential westward across southern New Mexico & southeast Arizona and northward towards the Colorado front range & central plains during late winter into early spring.

monthly wildfire outlook Jan 2011

seasonal wildfire outlook Feb-Apr 2011

Outlook for wildfire potential, December-March

The National Interagency Fire Center has released their outlook for wildfire potential for December, 2010 through March, 2011.

wildfire Outlook December 2010wildfire Outlook January-March 2010

NIFC says:

• La Niña: Persistent warmer and drier than normal weather is expected this winter over the southern tier of states contributing to increased fire potential.

• Drought: Persisting and developing drought across the south-central and southeast U.S. will lead to above normal significant fire potential during winter.

• Fuel Dryness: Increasing dryness across the southern tier of the U.S. this winter will expand above normal significant fire potential westward into southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona by March.

The complete outlook can be found at NIFC.

Here is the Drought Monitor, revised November 23, 2010.

Drought Monitor Nov 23 2010

Wildfire potential for September through December, 2010

The National Interagency Fire Center has released their outlook for wildfire potential for September through December, 2010.

According to their Predictive Services section, the primary factors influencing the outlook are:

• Tropical Moisture: Above normal rainfall due to an anticipated active storm pattern will likely lead to lower fire potential across the southeastern states in September.

• Drought: Areas of long-term dryness stretching from northeast Texas to the Mid-Atlantic States will lead to above normal fire potential during the fall fire season.

• Offshore Winds: Anticipated offshore winds in southern California combined with dry conditions will produce elevated fire potential into the fall.

Click on the images to see larger versions wildfire potential

wildfire potential

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