Tag: potential

The Predictive Services section of the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook today for the period March through June. At least we are pretty sure those are the dates that are covered. As sometimes happens with this monthly report, there are several errors or typos at the beginning of the document relative to dates that are included in the report. The problem with the errors is, we have to wonder if any other portions of the report are invalid.

But here are some excerpts from the report issued today:

The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

La Niña: The ongoing strong La Niña episode is expected to weaken this spring of although its effects will continue to be felt. Warmer and drier weather is expected to occur across the southern tier of states and into the southern & central Great Plains with a corresponding increase in significant fire potential.

Drought: Persisting and increasing drought across portions of the southern and central U.S. and along the mid-Atlantic seaboard will result in increasing significant fire potential during the late winter and spring.

Fuel Dryness: Unusual dryness across the southern tier of states observed this winter will expand areas of above normal significant fire potential westward across southern New Mexico & into southeast Arizona and northward into the Colorado front range & central plains. Increasing fuel dryness is also expected to expand northward from Florida to the southern and mid-Atlantic seaboard.

Since much of the central and northeast United States is dealing with extreme winter weather and blizzard warnings today, wildfire potential may not be uppermost on the minds of many of us. However portions of Texas, Florida, and Georgia have “above normal” wildfire potential for the next four months.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, who prepared this wildfire potential outlook, the primary factors influencing this analysis are:

• La Niña: The ongoing strong La Niña influence is expected to continue well into 2011. This tends to result in drier and eventually warmer than usual weather across the southern tier of states and into the southern & central Great Plains, contributing to increased fire potential.

• Drought: Persisting and developing drought across portions of the southern and central U.S. will promote above normal significant fire potential during the late winter, expanding westward and northward in early spring.

• Fuel Dryness: Dryness across the southern tier of the U.S. this winter will expand areas of above normal significant fire potential westward across southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona and northward into the Colorado Front Range and central plains.

The National Interagency Fire Center has released their significant wildfire potential outlook for January through April. According to their analysis, the primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

• La Niña: An ongoing strong La Niña episode is expected to result in drier and eventually warmer than usual weather across the southern tier of states and into the southern & central Great Plains, contributing to increased fire potential.

• Drought: Persisting and developing drought across portions of the southern and central U.S. will promote above normal significant fire potential during the winter and north and westward expansion of this enhanced potential in early spring.

• Fuel Dryness: Increasing dryness across the southern tier of the U.S. this winter will expand above normal significant fire potential westward across southern New Mexico & southeast Arizona and northward towards the Colorado front range & central plains during late winter into early spring.

The National Interagency Fire Center has released their outlook for wildfire potential for December, 2010 through March, 2011.

NIFC says:

• La Niña: Persistent warmer and drier than normal weather is expected this winter over the southern tier of states contributing to increased fire potential.

• Drought: Persisting and developing drought across the south-central and southeast U.S. will lead to above normal significant fire potential during winter.

• Fuel Dryness: Increasing dryness across the southern tier of the U.S. this winter will expand above normal significant fire potential westward into southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona by March.

The complete outlook can be found at NIFC.

Here is the Drought Monitor, revised November 23, 2010.

The National Interagency Fire Center has released their outlook for wildfire potential for November, 2010 through February, 2011.

The complete outlook can be found at NIFC.

Here is the Drought Monitor, revised October 26, 2010.

The National Interagency Fire Center has released their outlook for significant wildfire potential through January, 2011. If it turns out to be correct, firefighters in the southern states and southern California are going to be busy. Click on the images to see larger versions.

The National Interagency Fire Center has released their outlook for wildfire potential for September through December, 2010.

According to their Predictive Services section, the primary factors influencing the outlook are:

• Tropical Moisture: Above normal rainfall due to an anticipated active storm pattern will likely lead to lower fire potential across the southeastern states in September.

• Drought: Areas of long-term dryness stretching from northeast Texas to the Mid-Atlantic States will lead to above normal fire potential during the fall fire season.

• Offshore Winds: Anticipated offshore winds in southern California combined with dry conditions will produce elevated fire potential into the fall.

Click on the images to see larger versions 

More information

The National Interagency Fire Center has released their prediction for wildfire potential for the next four months. If this turns out to be accurate, there is not going to be a lot of overtime earned during this period. Click on the images below to see larger versions.

More information.