The National Interagency Fire Center has issued a wildland fire outlook for June through September, 2009. Only three areas are showing above normal fire potential: west-central California, north-central Washington, and the east Minnesota/north Wisconsin area.
I am sure the people who put this outlook together are great at their jobs, but personally I think the most important factor that affects the intensity of a fire season is the weather DURING the fire season. If it is hot, dry, and windy, firefighters are going to be busy.
For more information: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf