West Fork 2 Fire, now part of the Lolo Creek Complex southwest of Missoula, InciWeb photo
The National Multi-Agency Coordinating Group (NMAC) raised the national Preparedness Level (PL) to the highest possible today, PL 5. The criteria for PL 5, according to the Mobilization Guide (page 52) is:
Wildland fire or other incidents nationally have the potential to exhaust all agency fire resources. Eighty percent (80%) of Type 1 and Type 2 [Initial Attack] crews are committed, as well as the majority of other National Resources. Significant fire potential is likely to remain high in at least three (3) Geographic Areas with no indication of improvement in the next seven (7) days.
Preparedness Levels are based on burning conditions, fire activity, predicted weather and resource availability. They indicate the overall current and expected fire activity on a national or local basis. The levels range from 1 (minimal activity) to 5 (very high activity).
Since 1990 we have been in PL 5 ten times, but the last time was in 2008. PL 5 was reached in 1990, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, and 2008.
The primary reasons for going to PL 5 today were:
The high level of current fire activity in Idaho, Oregon and Utah, plus emerging large fires in California and Montana.
A weather forecast that calls for the possibility of widespread lightning and hot and dry weather over an extended period.
Some shortages of national resources.
The national Situation Report lists 48 uncontained large fires. In some cases the report appears to count each “complex” as one fire, even though complexes consist of multiple individual fires.
Committed today on fires, are 10 Type 1 Incident Management Teams, 21 Type 2 Teams, and 2 NIMO teams.
Five of the eight military MAFFS C-130 air tankers have been activated.
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches for enhanced wildfire danger have been issued by the National Weather Service for areas in Idaho, California, and Oregon.
The Red Flag Warning map above was current as of 7:20 a.m. MDT on Tuesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
The maps below shows the distribution of wildfire smoke in the United States at 5:20 a.m. MDT August 20, 2013.
Wildfire smoke, at 5:20 a.m. MDT, August 20, 2013Wildfire smoke, dense levels only, at 5:20 a.m. MDT, August 20, 2013
Map of Lolo Complex. The red line was the fire perimeter at 2 a.m. MDT, August 22, 2013. The pink line was the perimeter about 24 before that. (click to enlarge)
As you can see in the map above, the Lolo Creek Complex did not spread much in the 24 hours before it was mapped at 2 a.m. on Thursday, and firefighters reported very little additional movement of the fire during the day. A heat detecting satellite found very little heat on the fire Thursday afternoon, and some of that may have been from a burnout operation conducted by firefighters to check the eastward movement of the fire.
The weather forecast for the fire area includes strong southwest winds on Friday, at 17 mph gusting to 29 mph. The relative humidity will not be extremely low, bottoming out at 28 percent. There will be a 30 to 50 percent chance of thundershowers Friday and Saturday. The nearest weather station we could find was the one at the Fire Lab in Missoula about 11 miles to the northwest, which recorded 11 percent RH at 4:28 p.m. Thursday.
Lolo Creek Complex above Fort Fizzle, August 22, 2013.
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(UPDATE at 9 a.m. MDT, August 21, 2013)
Lolo Creek Complex as seen from the Missoula Airport at 6:09 p.m. MDT, August 20, 2013
The Lolo Creek Complex has been very active over the last 24 hours, continuing to spread to the north and east. It added about 3,600 acres, bringing the total to 8,600 acres. Late into Tuesday night the fire was still spreading on the north and southeast sides, but not as rapidly as it was moving across the landscape Tuesday afternoon.
Map of Lolo Creek Complex at 2 a.m. MDT, August 21, 2013. The red line is the perimeter at 2 a.m. Wednesday. The pink line is the perimeter 24 hours before. (click to enlarge)
As you can see on the map of the Lolo Creek Complex above, the fire spread 2.5 miles to the east during the 24-hour period ending at 2 a.m. Wednesday, making it as far as Chicksman Gulch. It is now within 2 miles of the outskirts of Lolo, and 6 miles from the south edge of Missoula.
Map of Lolo Complex at 11 p.m. MDT, August 19, 2013 (click to enlarge)
The Schoolhouse and Westfork 2 fires, which were on opposite sides of Highway 12 eight miles southwest of the outskirts of Missoula, have burned together and are now called the Lolo Creek Complex. As of 11 p.m. Monday night the fire was still five miles west of Lolo.
The Incident Management Team released this information about the fire Tuesday morning:
“The Lolo Creek Complex, consisting of two fires, formerly the Schoolhouse Fire and the West Fork II Fire, is estimated at 5,000 acres. Extreme fire danger and Red Flag conditions hampered initial attack efforts and the fire experienced rapid growth yesterday, driven by winds of 40-50 mph. Firefighters continue to focus on structure protection and will work today to establish a safe anchor point and begin to contain the fire. Firefighters conducted a burnout last night along the Elk Meadows Road to remove unburned fuel along this possible fuel break. The fire is being managed jointly by the Lolo National Forest and the Montana DNRC.
A National, Type 1 Incident Management Team is en route to the fire, and will be briefed on the situation today. Predicted weather over the next several days will continue to challenge firefighters; heavy smoke will impact air operations, and the potential for fire growth is very high.
There are confirmed structure losses, including homes. Additional information should be available later today. There are voluntary evacuations for residents along Bear Creek Road and down to Sleeman Road. There is an evacuation shelter at Christ the King Church, 1400 Gerald Street, in Missoula. Missoula County Disaster & Emergency Services has established a hotline for affected residents with information on shelters, care for large animals, and other information. The number is 258-4636.
No injuries have been reported.”
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(Originally published at 8:39 p.m. MDT, August 19, 2013)
Lolo Creek Complex as seen from Missoula at 8:13 p.m. MDT, August 19, 2013
The Lolo Creek Complex was formed today after the West Fork 2 fire blew up on the south side of Highway 12, west of Lolo, Montana. The fire is just a few miles from the Schoolhouse Fire on the north side of the Highway. Now the two fires are being managed as a complex. They are on both sides of Highway 12, eight miles southwest of the outskirts of Missoula and five miles west of Lolo. The fires have burned about 3,500 acres.
Map of Lolo Creek Complex showing heat detected by a satellite at 2:57 p.m. MDT, August 19, 2013. The location of each square can be as much as a mile in error. (click to enlarge)
Highway 12 is closed at the junction of Highway 93 but residents are being allowed into the area. Fire managers and local law enforcement are also coordinating pre-evacuation notices as needed for impacted areas near Bear Creek Road and other areas west of the town of Lolo.
Fry’s Type 2 Incident Management Team that has been managing the Nimrod fire will take over the complex.
This video of scenes from the Beaver Creek Fire has some excellent fire and aviation footage. It’s a little over-edited, but you won’t be bored during the three minutes.
Here is the description from SCVP Cordovano Video & Production:
I shot this video before, during and after being evacuated from my home due to the Beaver Creek Wildfire. I am taking this chance to celebrate the power of nature and its natural cycles as well as celebrating the power of modern technology.
Douglas Burts, who posted this video shot at the Tetlin Juction Fire August 16, 2013, called it Alaska Firenado. While I’m not sure that there is an official definition of the term, there is definitely rotation in this smoke column, and it appears to be more than just horizontal roll vortices. Whatever we call it, this fire behavior is very impressive.
