This is the prediction for the distribution of wildfire smoke at 6 p.m. MDT July 23, 2018.
Category: Uncategorized
Fires in Southwest Oregon were very active Sunday
Above: The map of Southwest Oregon shows heat on wildfires detected within the last week. The red dots are the most current.
(Originally published at 10 a.m. PDT July 23, 2018)
Firefighters in Southwest Oregon are still battling wildfires ignited by the lighting storms that passed across the state a week ago. The good news is they got a reprieve Sunday when additional lightning that was predicted didn’t show up.
Here is a brief summary of the fire situation in Oregon prepared by the Northwest Coordination Center Monday morning:
The warming and drying trend in Oregon will continue [Monday]. This trend is moving north into Washington. Smoke covered the Southwest Oregon fires through the morning [Sunday] and cleared out by early afternoon. As the smoke cleared, large fires in Southwest Oregon exhibited more active growth through the afternoon and into the evening.
Four Incident Management Teams are prepositioned in the Geographic Area and ready for assignments if needed: NW Team 7 (Knerr), NW Team 8 (Johnson), NW Team 10 (Lawson), and PNW Team 2 (Schulte).
The Garner Complex consists of six fires east of Cave Junction. Together they have burned over 11,000 acres. Sunday 50 Oregon National Guard personnel arrived to staff ten road blocks around the clock.
The 1,200-acre Timber Crater 6 Fire in Crater Lake National Park is one of several fires ignited by lightning in and around the Park July 15. On Monday the Incident Management Team described their situation:
With the number of new fires in the Northwest this week, firefighting resources are strained. However, the Timber Crater 6 Fire is being aggressively managed for full suppression, commensurate with values at risk and the overriding objective of public and firefighter safety.
Some western states hit hard by lightning Sunday
![lighting strike map](https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/LIghtning_7-23-2018.png)
In spite of the weather forecast, the lightning predicted for Southwest Oregon on Sunday didn’t really pan out, but portions of other western states received thousands of strikes. Firefighters may have some followup to do in Northeast Montana, Southwest Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, the Sierras in California, and states in the Great Plains.
During the rest of this week Southern California will likely experience temperatures much higher than normal, possibly setting a few daily records. Weak hot and dry sundowner winds could occur near Santa Barbara bringing compressional heating and high fire danger.
Here’s more weather information from the National Interagency Fire Center, issued July 23:
A critical fire weather scenario will begin to set up as shards of monsoonal moisture begin to filter further into the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies. These storms, while still isolated, will be dry and should trigger new starts as the stage begins to set for the next few days after [Monday], which should be pretty convective.
Could the Ferguson Fire burn into the Rim Fire?
Four miles separate the two fires
![Ferguson Fire Rim Fire](https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Rim-FergusonFires_7-28-2018.jpg)
At its peak the 2013 Rim Fire east of Sonora, California, had over 5,000 personnel assigned. At over 257,000 acres it stands today as the fourth largest wildfire in the recorded history of California, 30 miles wide, west to east. Most of the blaze was in the Stanislaus National Forest but it spread into Yosemite National Park where it burned almost 79,000 acres of the Park’s back country, but never made it to the most visited area, Yosemite Valley.
CLICK HERE to see all of the articles on Wildfire Today about the Ferguson Fire, including the most recent.
The Ferguson Fire which as been burning for 10 days already has 2,900 personnel assigned and reached 30,000 acres Saturday. So far it has not destroyed any structures. As large as it was, the Rim Fire burned a surprisingly small number of structures — 11 homes, 3 commercial buildings, and 98 outbuildings. But if the Ferguson Fire grows east in a big way, several communities would be at risk, including El Portal, Foresta, Yosemite West, and possibly Wawona.
For the last week the Ferguson Fire has been slowed by inversions that typically do not break until mid-afternoon, after which it has been adding several thousand acres each day. If the weather changes and brings a strong wind with a westerly component, the complexion of the fire will change dramatically. In two days in mid-August, the Rim Fire burned nearly 90,000 acres.
Saturday night only four miles separated the Ferguson Fire from the footprint of the 2013 Rim Fire. If it does burn into it, the resistance to control should decrease, allowing firefighters a better chance to stop it in that area. If the north end of the Ferguson Fire spreads northeast three miles it will burn into Yosemite National Park. From that point, Yosemite Valley would be 13 miles to the east.
The Fire History map the Incident Management Team uploaded to InciWeb on July 21 is very cluttered and extremely difficult to decipher, but there have been some fires in the last 20 to 40 years years north of Highway 140 and east of the Ferguson Fire which, to a certain extent, may help firefighters a bit.
Lightning and low humidity predicted for Southwest Oregon and Northern California
With fewer aircraft available this year, and 14,000 firefighters already committed, suppressing multiple new large fires could be a challenge.
![Red Flag Warning July 22, 2018](https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/RedFlag_7-22.jpg)
While Southwest Oregon is still dealing with the lightning-caused fires that started a week ago, forecasters expect another round of lightning starting Sunday afternoon. The locations affected will be Southwest Oregon and Northern California, including National Forests in the area: Siskiyou, Rogue River, Shasta-Trinity, Fremont-Winema, and Klamath.
The best chance for lightning is Sunday, but it could linger through Tuesday.
Adding to the lightning threat is low relative humidity which is expected to reach into the teens in most locations Sunday.
And piling on to the wildfire danger is the current condition of the fuels. Oregon and Washington are at or over the historic high Energy Release Component (ERC). The ERC is a number related to the available energy (BTU) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. A high ERC indicates more resistance to control — fires are harder to suppress.
With large numbers of firefighting resources already tied up on fires in Oregon, Utah, and California another flurry of rapidly spreading fires could severely test the mobilization capacity of the wildland firefighting agencies. Today over 14,000 personnel are committed to fires, including 362 hand crews, 926 engines, and 126 helicopters.
Before the 2018 fire season started the U.S. Forest Service reduced the number of large air tankers on exclusive use contracts by one-third, leaving only 14 to be shared across the United States. Other air tankers on Call When Needed contracts can supplement the fleet, if they are available, but their daily availability costs average 54 percent higher than those on season-long exclusive use contracts. Their hourly costs average 18 percent higher.
In 2017 the Type 1 helicopters on exclusive use contracts were cut from 34 to 28, and that continues in 2018.
Poll: Preparedness Level 5 this year?
When do YOU think we will move to PL 5 this year? And, will there be a “Moses Letter” this year?
The National MAC Group just moved the national fire Preparedness Level up to 4, “due to increased significant wildland fire activity from central TX to WA state, the commitment of IMTs, and the potential for new wildland fires across multiple GACCs”. The highest level is 5.
NIFC has more information about Preparedness Levels, but here is the criteria for PL 5:
National mobilization is heavily committed and measures need to be taken to support [Geographic Areas]. Active GA’s must take emergency measures to sustain incident operations.
– Full commitment of national resources is ongoing.
– Resource orders filled at NICC by specifically coordinating requests with GACCs as resources become available.
– Potential for emerging significant wildland fires is high and expected to remain high in multiple geographic areas.
Please take our poll. Answers must be clicked by the end of the day on Monday, July 23, 2018.
When this year will the national preparedness level be moved to PL 5? The week of...
- August 5 (35%, 123 Votes)
- August 12 (27%, 94 Votes)
- July 29 (17%, 60 Votes)
- August 19 (9%, 32 Votes)
- It won't move to PL 5 (7%, 24 Votes)
- July 22 (2%, 8 Votes)
- September 2 or after (2%, 7 Votes)
- August 26 (1%, 4 Votes)
Total Voters: 352
![Loading ... Loading ...](https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/plugins/wp-polls/images/loading.gif)
Sometimes when we’re in PL 4 or 5 the honchos in Washington will distribute a “Moses Letter”, telling regional and local units to Let My People Go so they can go fight fire and save lives.
Exodus 8:1
Then the Lord said to Moses, “Go in to Pharaoh and say to him, ‘Thus says the Lord, “Let my people go, that they may serve me.”
Of course they don’t actually CALL IT a “Moses Letter” and probably won’t quote the Bible if they do send one, but we are in a new norm now, for many reasons.
For bonus points, let us know in the comments if you think the folks in the head shed will send a Moses Letter this year.