Lion Fire update, October 6, 2017

Above: A firing operation on the Lion Fire October 5, 2017. USFS photo.

(Originally published at 8:27 a.m. PDT October 6, 2017)

Firefighters in the Sequoia National Forest are using strategic fire as one of their main tools on the Lion Fire 30 miles northeast of Porterville, California in the Golden Trout Wilderness.

On Thursday a helicopter using a plastic sphere dispenser ignited fire on a rocky 9,000 to 10,000-foot elevation ridge, letting it back down the very steep slope toward the valley below. The incident management team reported Friday morning that the fire had grown to 8,100 acres, an increase of 250 acres over the previous day.

map perimeter of the Lion Fire
3-D map showing the approximate perimeter of the Lion Fire based on satellite data from October 5 and 6 2017.

Resources assigned include 8 hand crews, 3 helicopters, and 2 engines for a total of 221 personnel.

As promised Thursday the National Interagency Coordination Center stopped listing the Lion Fire Friday on their daily Situation Report because of a lack of “significant activity” even though it doubled in size on Wednesday. The fire is not being totally suppressed, but is being managed to protect private property.

Perimeter of the Lion Fire October 5, 2017
Perimeter of the Lion Fire October 5, 2017. USFS map with large black text added by Wildfire Today.
Lion Fire
Lion Fire. USFS photo, uploaded October 3, 2017.

 

Red Flag Warnings in the forecast for areas in California

Red Flag Warning wildfire California
Red Flag Warning (red) and Fire Weather Watch (yellow). October 6, 2017.

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 p.m. PDT Friday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for the Ventura, Los Angeles County, and Santa Monica Mountains. The wind will be northeast at 15 to 25 with gusts up to 40 mph. These conditions will moderate on Saturday, but will return on Sunday and Monday.

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued in much of northern California for similar conditions beginning Sunday morning through late Monday night. Forecasters expect 15 to 30 mph north to northeast winds gusting to 40 mph along with minimum humidity between 8 and 15 percent.

Lion Fire in Sequoia NF doubles in size

Above: Lion Fire in Sequoia National Forest. Photo uploaded to Inciweb October 5, 2017.

(Originally published at 11:22 a.m. PDT October 5, 2017)

After burning for 11 days since it started on September 24, the Lion Fire roared through the Sequoia National Forest Tuesday and Wednesday, doubling in size to 7,850 acres.

The fire is 10 miles northeast of Camp Nelson and 30 miles northeast of Porterville, California in the Golden Trout Wilderness.

Firefighters are working to protect the structures at the privately owned R.M. Pyles Boys Camp.

The Lion Fire is not being fully suppressed. Most of the current spread has been in an area that burned in the 2011 Lion Fire.

“This fire is spreading mostly through ground fuels in this remote part of the Wilderness,” stated District Ranger Eric LaPrice. “Efforts to contain the fire will be made along routes where firefighters can work safely while avoiding stands of dead trees and inaccessible terrain.”

Smoke is expected to settle into the valleys in the late evening and early morning hours due to inversion patterns that normally hold the smoke in low-lying areas.

A weather station about 8 miles southwest of the fire recorded single digit humidities Wednesday night into mid-day on Thursday. During that period west to northwest winds were blowing at 4 to 11 mph with gusts of 11 to 16 mph.

Oddly, the National Interagency Fire Center’s Situation Report said Thursday, while showing a 4,050-acre increase in size, “Last report unless significant activity occurs.” We might be confused about how NIFC defines “significant activity”. But they often distribute less information about fires that are not being suppressed.

The best thing you will see today

Above: Screen grab from the video of the Samoa fire crew.

Take a break from the depressing national news and watch the best thing you will see today. It shows a fire crew from Samoa apparently walking out of the forest, perhaps at the end of the day. And they are singing, acappella, a hymn — with some of the firefighters singing harmony.

It was filmed at the Helena-Fork Fire on the Shasta-Trinity National Forest in northwest California. The video was posted September 27, 2017 by Lori Light.

The video below was uploaded by Dean Vernarecci October 9, 2015, titled, “The Samoa fire hand crew do the HAKA at the Gasquet Fire”.

Below is another video of a fire crew from Samoa on a wildfire assignment. It was posted August 27, 2017 by Ronneesu who described it: “Prior to demobing, American Samoa Fire Crew shared culture and spirit with staff at Modoc National Forest Supervisor’s Office, Alturas, CA.”

Some home insurance companies refusing to renew policies in wildfire-prone areas

Firewise defensible space structure

One of the most serious problems facing firefighters today is the movement of residents into the Wildland/Urban Interface, the WUI. As a wildfire spreads toward flammable structures that are near or in some cases surrounded by burnable vegetation it can be very difficult to protect them. Often as a fire grows in a WUI area containing dozens or hundreds of homes there are not enough firefighters to park a fire engine at every house.

Some structures are easier to protect than others. “Firewise” refers to homes that are designed and maintained to be fire resistant. A few burning embers (that can be transported in the wind for a mile) in most cases will not ignite a home built to withstand fire. It is the other homes, with flammable siding, roofs, and decks, and that have brush or trees providing an efficient path for the fire to spread up to the structure, that is a nightmare for the fire department. In some cases as a fire approaches, this second category of homes will be written off since it may not be possible to save them, even with a fire truck parked in the driveway. Without vegetation clearance of 30 to 100 feet, it can be unsafe for firefighters to remain at the site as an intense fire approaches.

Gunbarrel Fire
Firefighters at the Gunbarrel Fire west of Cody, WY apply foam and install sprinklers at Goff Creek Lodge, August 26, 2008. Photo by Michael Johnson.

A difficult to defend home is not only a problem for the owner, but it also affects the community. As it burns in a wildfire, it creates huge amounts of radiant and convective heat. Combined with the airborne burning embers put into the air as it burns, it can ignite other homes nearby. If multiple unprepared homes burn, the effects of the conflagration are multiplied making it difficult for even Firewise structures to survive. In addition, unprepared homes suck up more firefighting resources, which can make it difficult or impossible for there to be enough firefighters, crews, engines, and aircraft to suppress the wildland fire — they are often tied up because of some irresponsible residents.

In a perfect world all structures in a WUI would be Firewise. Inevitably, however, a sizeable percentage of homeowners will do nothing to make their structures defensible. There are two ways to encourage, or even force, them to take action before a fire strikes. Zoning laws and insurance companies. Laws can, for example, ban wood shingle roofs, and require vegetation clearances up to 100 feet, as well as other requirements. Many jurisdictions do this.

Insurance companies have an extremely powerful tool at their disposal that is rarely used. According to the NW News Network, at least two companies in Washington and Oregon are refusing to renew the policies for some home owners, or for structures in wildfire prone areas.

Below is an excerpt from NW News:

Some insurance companies are choosing not to renew policies in wildfire-prone areas of the inland Northwest. That’s sending home owners scrambling to find new coverage for their properties. Northwest-based insurers such as Pemco and Grange Insurance are getting choosier about how much risk they’ll take on. This according to property owners who’ve been dropped recently and posted about their frustrations online.

One customer from Chelan, Washington, complained Pemco refused to renew her homeowners insurance despite 17 years with no claims. The common thread among the non-renewals is location in wildfire country.

Oregon’s insurance regulators looked into this and said some insurers updated their wildfire risk rating models.

“There have been some non-renewals, rate increases, and moratoriums on new business, because updated risk models showed certain areas to be at especially high risk of wildfires,” wrote Jake Sunderland, a Department of Consumer and Business Services spokesman, in an email.

Refusing to write policies in a large area is not the best solution. Some companies will only insure structures after inspecting them to be sure they are Firewise and have defensible space.

Wildfire potential, October through January

On October  1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October through January. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If the prediction is accurate, October should see higher than normal wildfire activity in the northern Rockies and along the California coast.

Below are:

  • The highlights of the NIFC report;
  • NIFC’s graphical outlooks for September through November;
  • NOAA’s long range temperature and precipitation forecasts; and
  • Drought Monitor

“Abundant rain and mountain snowfall across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Basin in mid-September ended the record dry conditions and brought fire danger indices down to seasonal levels entering October. While drought conditions continue across these areas, short-term fire impacts have been minimized. The Southeast continued to receive sufficient moisture, keeping the region at low potential for wildfire. Temperatures were above average for the month across the West. However, there was a significant cooling occurred with the mid-month rain and snow. By month’s end, temperatures had returned to average levels. In the East, temperatures were generally below average.

“Three historically significant weather events occurred during the month. Hurricane Harvey made landfall on the Texas Coast, dropping 45 to 50 inches of rain and producing catastrophic flooding in southeast Texas, including the Houston area. Hurricane Irma battered the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico before making landfall in Florida as a major hurricane. Hurricane Maria crossed Puerto Rico with strong winds and considerable flooding, causing catastrophic damage to the island.

“Weather patterns along the West Coast allowed fuels to dry and become receptive to fire should events arise. October marks the beginning of the fall fire season in California as the state becomes susceptible to offshore winds. Events are typically multi-day in duration and vary in intensity. Indicators suggest that this could be an active season for the development of these events during October and November before the state exits its season in December. The fall is also typically a peak in fire activity for the Southeast. While normal significant fire potential is expected for most areas during this outlook period, the Southeast will need to be monitored for above normal conditions and activity in November.”


wildfire potential November

wildfire potential December January
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