News and opinion about wildland fire
Friday’s weather includes Red Flag Warnings in the west and a hurricane on the east coast
Above: Weather forecast, current at 9 a.m. MDT September 2, 2016. Weatherunderground. Black text added by WildfireToday.
The weather map for the United States today has quite a range of conditions across the country. While Hurricane Hermine, now downgraded to a tropical storm, batters the southeast, a cold front is bringing strong winds and low humidities to some areas in the west. There is a chance of isolated dry thunderstorms in northwest Wyoming and eastern Montana.
On September 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September through December, 2016. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. Below are highlights from the outlook.
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September is typically a month of significant change in fire conditions, especially across the northern tier of the United States. Days shorten, lessening available solar radiation to dry and heat fuels; longer nights are cooler with generally higher humidity. These conditions slowly reduce fire activity and typically end normal fire season activity throughout the month. This is expected to be the trend this season as well.
Throughout the northern portions of the Great Basin including portions of the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountain Areas above normal conditions will transition through the month to normal conditions and by the end of September normal conditions indicate minimal fire activity throughout this area. Occasional dry cold fronts during September and possibly October will present the potential for large fires on the landscape to grow rapidly; however, these conditions will be short in duration followed by opportunities for successful firefighting efforts. California will remain at above normal levels of fire activity throughout much of the state as dry conditions will continue and fall will bring the increased potential for offshore flow events.
In October, November and December diminishing activity in the northern tier will transition to heightened activity across the southern tier; especially in central and southernCalifornia and the Southeast. California is not expected to see any significant events that will alleviate long term drought and very dry fuels. This will come with enhanced potential for offshore flow, increasing the potential for very dry and windy conditions. The southeastern United States is a significant wildcard moving into the fall months.
Tropical systems the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico could provide substantial relief to some if not all of the area.
If this dry area remains, fall fire activity in the Southeast will be amplified and could become significant throughout the fall and winter. It is possible significant changes will occur, but the current conditions dictate elevated potential is likely.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized12 Comments on Smokejumpers used on the Holy Fire in southern California Above: Smokejumpers descend over the Holy Fire August 31, 2016. USFS photo.
(Originally published at 11:08 a.m. PDT September 1, 2016. Updated at 1:44 p.m. PDT September 1, 2016)
Until yesterday smokejumpers had never parachuted into a fire on the Cleveland National Forest. This was the only National Forest in California that had not yet inserted jumpers in this manner. Occasionally jumpers are assigned to a fire but arrive in a conventional manner, on the ground.
They were ordered for the Holy Fire just off of Trabuco Creek Road 2.2 miles east of the city of Robinson Ranch in Orange County, California. The fire burned 155 acres between the road and the Bell View Trail at the top of the ridge above Trabuco Canyon. The fire ran to the top of the north-facing slope and stopped thanks to the efforts of firefighters on the ground, the change in topography and fuels, and the heavy use of helicopters and air tankers, including a DC-10.
Thursday morning there were 273 personnel assigned to the Holy Fire, which got its name from the nearby Holy Jim Canyon.
The Cleveland National Forest stretches between the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area and the outskirts of San Diego.
Jason Foreman with the Redding Smokejumpers said the 16 jumpers were dispatched from Redding and Porterville using a U.S. Forest Service Sherpa and a contract Dornier aircraft, each with 8 firefighters. The arrival of the Dornier out of Porterville was delayed due to the very busy air space in southern California. The jumpers from Porterville landed on the ground at approximately 6:30 p.m. PDT, while the Redding squad all completed their jumps by 7:50 p.m Wednesday, Mr. Foreman said.
“A critical piece of line needed to be secured in an expeditious manner. The terrain to get to the ridgeline was steep and had limited access” Olivia Walker, spokesperson for the Cleveland National Forest said when asked why local firefighters were not used instead of the smokejumpers. “There were no personnel available to staff the section of line that was used to insert the Smokejumpers on”, she explained.
Four firefighters suffered heat-related injuries and were extracted by helicopters. The fire was managed in a unified command with the U.S. Forest Service and the Orange County Fire Authority.
Access to the base of the fire was via Trabuco Creek Road. A 3-mile hike from Robinson Ranch on the Bell Ridge Trail would take you to the top of the fire. The terrain at the fire is very steep. Hikers on the trail would have a 1,500-foot elevation change — up.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized1 Comment on Red Flag Warnings, September 1, 2016 
The National Weather Service has posted Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches for areas in seven states: South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and California.
The Red Flag map was current as of 8:50 a.m. MDT on Thursday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts and maps. For the most current data visit this NWS site.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized2 Comments on “Slow is smooth. Smooth is fast.” That’s the title of a video, all in slow motion, showing firefighters working on the Bybee Creek Fire in Crater Lake National Park.
Squad 21 out of the Fremont-Winema National Forest working on the Bybee Creek Fire in Crater Lake National Park. Video shot and edited by David Corr.
NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, as part of an experimental program (above), has produced a smoke forecast for 5 p.m. on Wednesday, August 31, showing that many areas in the western U.S. are affected by smoke from wildfires.
Below is their forecast for 5 p.m. MDT on Thursday, September 1, 2016.
The last map, below, predicts elevated wildfire danger on September 1 in parts of California, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Montana. Isolated dry thunderstorms could be in the cards for areas in Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming.
