Flash flood watches (green shaded areas), 8:37 a.m. PDT Oct. 23, 2021. The purple lines indicate the perimeters of fires in 2021.
The National Weather Service has issued numerous flash flood watches for areas near many of the recent California wildfires. Heavy rain could bring ash and debris flows to locations below recently burned areas. At 8:37 a.m. on Saturday the NWS had not listed any major flash flood warnings in Oregon or Washington.
The atmospheric river combined with a bomb cyclone are bringing massive amounts of precipitation to areas of Northern California, Oregon, and Washington.
Precipitation accumulated during the 48-hour period ending at 8:56 a.m. PDT Oct. 23, 2021. The purple lines indicate the perimeters of fires in 2021.
Precipitation accumulated over the 48-hour period ending at 8:56 a.m. PDT Oct. 23 showed approximately 1 to 2 inches near the Dixie Fire, one-half to 1 inch near the Caldor Fire, and 1 to 3 inches in northwestern California near the McCash, Monument, and River Fires. About 1 to 2 inches were recorded near the fires of 2020 in the Napa and Santa Rosa area, and up to 3 inches at the Doe and Hopkins Fires of 2020.
And more is on the way.
Predicted 72-hour cumulative precipitation. The purple lines indicate the perimeters of fires in 2021.
The video below is an October 22 briefing from the National Weather Service about the storm system that is bringing heavy rain and mountain snow, along with the potential for urban flooding and ash and debris flows to recently burned areas.
Claremont-Bear Fire, Sept. 8, 2020, which eventually became part of the North Complex of fires. Photo by Lori Mallory Eckhart.
Esquire magazine has a story written by Robert Langellier who left the Ozarks for a job as a firefighter for one season on the Truckee Hotshot crew in California. He describes in very engaging detail what a hotshot experiences, and introduces us to several characters on the crew. One is a fifty-three-year-old sawyer who has been dealing with a decades-old shoulder injury which had become bone-on-bone. He needed replacement surgery but could not afford to be out of commission for an entire fire season.
You can read the entire article, which I recommend, but here are a couple of samples:
The brush, mostly towering willow and ceanothus shrubs, was thick. Adam Jarkow, then a fifty-three-year-old sawyer, slashed a tunnel through it, while I launched the fallen branches and leaves out of the way. The pace, due more to work ethic than imminent danger, was frantic. The whine of four chain saws obliterated a sense of time, and the crush of willows did as much to space, the sweet smell of coyote mint below swallowed by the waft of two-stroke fuel.
The seeming paradox of needing to keep western forests from burning too much or too little is part of all forest management, not just wildland firefighting.
Forecasts are still being fine-tuned, but it appears likely that areas of Northern California, Oregon, and Washington will receive huge amounts of precipitation over the next seven days, with portions of Northern California getting more than 10 inches.
At least four waves of atmospheric rivers are barreling across the Pacific targeting the West Coast. The animated GIF below illustrates the progression of these “rivers.”
Predictions are subject to change, but the first band, beginning Thursday morning, will have the heaviest impacts in WA, OR, and northwest CA.
Sunday morning will bring another, centered in Central California.
The third wave will start to come through Tuesday, with the heaviest precipitation expected in Northern CA and OR.
The forecast could change over the next seven days, but the prediction is that another wave will primarily impact OR and WA on Thursday, Oct. 28.
With it already being the second half of October, it is likely that these atmospheric rivers will bring an end to the wildland fire season in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. Most of Southern California south of Santa Barbara is expected to receive less than a half inch of precipitation, so if the rest of of the year there is warm, dry, and windy the area could still see more wildfire activity.
The three-month temperature and precipitation outlook issued today predicts November through January conditions in SoCal that will be warmer and drier than average. But if significant precipitation occurs in the next seven days, it would require some serious Santa Ana wind events to dry the soils and vegetation enough to enable large fires to occur.
Three-month temperature and precipitation outlook issued October 21, 2021.
And allow them more time at home during the fire season
Inyo Hotshots on the KNP Complex of fires, Sept. 29, 2021. InciWeb.
Guest post By Tim Swedberg
On September 26, Wildfire Today published an article titled, Survey of Wildland Firefighter Spouses Finds the Job Creates Stress for the Family. The Survey tabulated responses from 1,841 persons including 1,599 from the Forest Service. One of the findings was “78.1 percent of respondents feel stress due to wildland firefighters’ absence.” Respondents also identified the need for “less demanding work schedule that provides for more days off.”
The critical issue is fatigue and its effects
Much of the work/rest research was completed over 20 years ago at the Missoula Technical Development Center (MTDC) and the University of Montana. The Spring 2002 MTDC No. 5 Health and Safety Report provided recommendations focused on: work/rest, assignment length, shift length, and much more.
From this research the National Wildfire Coordinating Group provided a guidance letter dated February 6, 2004, which states, “for fatigue management purposes and in line with credible research recommendations, a 2-day-off-after-14-day assignment standard (exclusive of travel) has been adopted”.
The 2002 research recommendations were a step forward, but (to the best of my knowledge) there has been little or no new wildland firefighter fatigue research commissioned or developed that could drive revision of the current policy.
Considering the increased deployment tempo, fire intensity, and size of current-day fires, it is both prudent and essential to revisit and validate or update the existing 20-year-old work/rest/fatigue recommendations with new and on-going research information. The Joint Fire Science Program, Forest Service Research Stations, and universities can lead in the development of critical new information to update fire management policy.
Is there a way to address the concerns of 78 percent of families that “feel stress due to wildland firefighters’ absence”? The answer is YES!
Back to the roots of Hot Shot crews
In the late 1940’s El Cariso, Del Rosa, and the Los Prietos Hot Shots were created as 30 person crews. In those early days all 30 firefighters would deploy to an incident.
1970 El Cariso Hot Shots
Today, I suggest a return to the 30-person (3 modules) Interagency Hotshot Crew (IHC) strength. Rather than dispatch all 3 modules, only 2 modules would respond. This leaves a 10-person module at home for a week of quality rest exclusive of travel. After 7 days the module left at home would replace one of the modules on the fire and one of the modules on the fire would return home for a week. This weekly rotation would continue throughout the fire season and could be accomplished without exceeding the 14-day assignment standard as no crewmember would work beyond 14 days. The rotation provides certainty for families that once every three weeks the firefighter will be working at their home unit.
Adoption of this suggestion means that Incident Management Teams will always receive a full two-module IHC Type 1 crew as is common practice today. The rotation also provides the IHC crew with 10 fresh replenishments every seven days exclusive of travel.
Clearly existing work/rest policies are detrimental to both firefighters and their families as evidenced by the Wildfire Today reporting of November 4, 2017 Suicide Rate Among Wildland firefighters is “astronomical.” The good news is, a fix could be developed and adopted without legislation. Let’s see if the rotating 30-person crew can diminish stress at home and on the fireline. I look forward to your thoughts.
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Tim Swedberg is a retired Palomar Hotshot firefighter and captain, fuels manager on the Mt. Hood National Forest, and during his last 10 years served as Communications Director for the Joint Fire Science Program — for 40 years of total service.
One of the provisions in that legislation, the creation of a “Federal Wildland Firefighter Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Database”, is interesting. About three years ago the Firefighter Cancer Registry Act of 2018 which passed July 7, 2018, required that the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), an agency within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), establish a Firefighter Cancer Registry. The goal was to better understand the link between workplace exposures and cancer among firefighters. NIOSH has been piddling around with this for four years, led by Kenny Fent, accomplishing very little.
Kudos to the legislators who will attempt to get it done another way, after apparently giving up on the NIOSH Firefighter Cancer Registry.
