Forest Service Chief squanders opportunity to request more funds for treating fuels

Also tells Congress “we’re on the right track with our air tankers”

Whaley Prescribed Fire Black Hills of South Dakota
The Whaley Prescribed Fire on the Black Hills National Forest in South Dakota, January 13, 2016. Photo by Bill Gabbert.

In testimony April 15 before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies, U.S. Forest Service Chief Vicki Christiansen spoke to members of Congress remotely from a spacious office. She had two clear opportunities to accept or ask for more funding in two very important inadequately budgeted areas, fuels treatment and aerial firefighting. In one case when told by a member of Congress “You’re going to need some more help in the resource department,” she incredibly said, “No.”

Doubling or tripling the treatment of fuels

Later, at 48:00, Rep. Mark Amodei of Nevada had been talking about slow, medium, and fast lanes for fuel treatments: “If we want to start getting to the point with the National Forest Lands where we can say our stewardship is in the medium lane as far as fuels management then you’re going to need some more help in the resource department.”

Chief Vicki Christiansen, speaking to the Appropriations committee: “No. What I can speak to Congressman is the science. It is the policy of Congress and the Administration on how fast we go.”

(The Representative then seemed to become a little exasperated, perhaps wanting the Chief to say, “Yes, we could make more progress treating fuels if you could increase our funding.”)

Rep. Mark Amodei: “As a budget reality if this committee wants to help you with fuels, I’m just going to say it — you can disagree with me — we need to do better.”

Chief Vicki Christiansen: “We need to do better. We need to do better. We have more to do to make a difference, a significant difference, on the landscape.”

The need to do more was repeated in another discussion about treating fuels at 57:00. In a discussion with Representative Susie Lee (Nevada) the Chief said their data shows that when a wildfire spreads into an area that has been treated to reduce fuels, 86 percent of the time the fire behavior reduces significantly into a low-intensity fire. Their goal now, she said, is to “treat 40 percent of a fireshed in order to have a resilient forest.”

Rep. Susie Lee: “How realistic is it to be able to treat 40 percent of a fireshed?”

Chief Vicki Christiansen: “Well, that’s why we have to up our game two to three times what we are doing now. ”

Rep. Susie Lee: “OK.”

The Chief did not explain how she is going to increase fuels treatment by “two to three times” on stagnant funding.

Vickie Christiansen Appropriations Committee Forest Service fuels aircraft
Vicki Christiansen testified remotely before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies April 15, 2021.

Funding for aerial firefighting

At 34:05 in the video below Rep. Mike Simpson from Idaho was discussing aerial firefighting, and point blank asked — how much money do you need? She replied at the end of a long, off the subject meandering discourse, “We think we are really on the right track with our air tankers,” without mentioning budget needs.

“One thing I’ve been dealing with,” Rep. Simpson said, “are the aviation assets of the Forest Service… Are we going to have a clear outline for the next 10-year plan for what the Forest Service needs in terms of air assets? How the five and ten year contracts you’re looking at will affect us and benefit us and what we need to put into our budget to so that the Forest Service has the necessary equipment to address these wildfires?”

Chief Vicki Christiansen: “All great questions. But I have to say, you know it was, let me see, 16 years ago I was the new state forester in the state of Washington and my first time before this committee, you were ranking member………. [three and a half minutes later:] Relative to your question about air tankers, the contracting air tanker community has really come on line they are meeting our needs of contemporary air tanker capacity for wildland fire in the U.S. We are studying the question about going to a 10-year contract, what the pros and cons are. We’re nearly complete with that report. It will be going through clearance in a matter of a few days and it will be getting to the committee here shortly. So we’d be glad to discuss more about air tankers. But we think we are really on the right track with our air tankers. And thank you for being such a help and an advocate for getting us get the right resources.”

Rep. Mike Simpson: “Thank you.”

10-year contracts and fuel treatments

In December, 2020 Congress directed the Forest Service and the DOI to submit a report within 90 days that considered awarding 10 year contracts for aircraft available for wildland fire suppression activities.

Fire Aviation wrote about these critical issues in December, 2018 and October, 2020. Here is a brief excerpt from the latter:

These one-year firefighting aircraft contracts need to be converted to 10-year contracts, and the number of Type 1 helicopters must be restored to at least the 34 we had for years.

In addition to aircraft, the federal agencies need to have much more funding for activities that can prevent fires from starting and also keep them from turning into megafires that threaten lives, communities, and private land. More prescribed burning and other fuel treatments are absolutely necessary.

The longer we put this off the worse the situation will become as the effects of climate change become even more profound.

Technology in the Forest Service

In Chief Christiansen’s five-page prepared testimony, several tech-related initiatives were mentioned:

We are also investing in several key technology and modernization portfolios; including, Data Management, Enhanced Real Time Operating Picture, Decision Support Applications, and Modern Tools for a Modern Response. Additionally, implementation of the Large Fire Assessment process, as directed by the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 (Fiscal Year 2021 Omnibus), is helping us better account for our actions while fostering a learning culture.

Chief Christiansen said (at 18:15 in the hearing) the agency is investing $8 million in a pilot program to utilize a system for tracking the location of firefighters. They are also standing up a program for Unmanned Aerial Systems by purchasing their first 20 aircraft.

The agency has signed an agreement with the Department of Defense and committed funds to access a system that uses satellites to detect fires “which already supported over 500 fires just this year alone in 2021.” She did not say if she was referring to the fiscal year which began October 1 or the calendar year.

A 9-year USFS aerial firefighting study left many questions unanswered

After 9 years and more than $11 million

Air Tanker 02 Drops on the Creek Fire
Air Tanker 02 Drops on the Creek Fire on Camp Pendelton Marine Base, December 24, 2020. CAL FIRE image.

-This article was first published on Fire Aviation-

In fiscal year 2018 the U.S. Forest Service spent more than half a billion dollars, $507,000,000, on air tankers, helicopters and other firefighting aircraft.

The agency’s spending on aircraft contracts, support, and fire suppression operations has gone on for decades with little meaningful oversight. The Forest Service has been repeatedly asked to justify the expense by the Government Accountability Office, the Department of Agriculture’s Inspector General, and Senators and Representatives in committee hearings — “How do you know air tankers are effective?”

A report by the GAO in August, 2013 said, “None of the agencies’ studies and strategy documents contained information on aircraft performance and effectiveness in supporting firefighting operations, which limits the agencies’ understanding of the strengths and limitations of each type of firefighting aircraft and their abilities to identify the number and type of aircraft they need,”

The Inspector General’s investigation concluded, “[The Forest Service] has not used aviation firefighting performance measures that directly demonstrate cost-impact…”

In 2012 the Forest Service began the Aerial Firefighting Use and Effectiveness (AFUE) study to address those concerns. After nine years and an annual cost of $1.3 million plus overtime for the field data collectors, a report about the study was quietly released August 20, 2020 during the peak of an exceptionally busy wildland fire season.

The AFUE had very ambitious goals initially when Tom Harbour was the Director of Fire and Aviation for the U.S. Forest Service.

“AFUE was initially intended to eventually help answer questions about the size and composition of aviation assets needed by the USFS,” Mr. Harbour told Fire Aviation recently.

From the agency’s AFUE website:

The desired outcome is to support training, mission selection and execution, and overall aerial fleet planning to enhance effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, potentially reducing aviation and fire suppression costs by answering a general, but complex question: “What are the best mixes of aircraft to do any fire suppression job?”

The data in the study was collected by four crews, or modules, of three to four single resource qualified firefighters, each with 10 to 25 years of firefighting experience. The modules mapped aerial drop activity and recorded incident objectives, outcomes, and conditions for aerial suppression actions that supported tactical and strategic incident objectives. The module coordinator coordinated crew movements.

AFUE personnel applied analysis protocols to data after observing 27,611 drops from 2015 to 2018 at incident locations throughout the USA in 18 States and across all nine Forest Service regions.

Other studies

This was not the first time that a study took on the task of determining the aircraft mix needed to assist wildland firefighters in the United States or to evaluate aerially applied fire retardant. The Inspector General’s report listed seven, most of which are on the Wildfire Today Documents page.

Additional studies not mentioned in the Inspector General’s report:

Size of USFS Large Air Tanker Fleet
Number of USFS Large Air Tankers on Exclusive Use contracts at the beginning of each year.

Which fires were analyzed in the AFUE study?

The fires at which data was collected were primarily large that escaped initial attack, since it takes time to mobilize the modules. Smaller fires that were stopped by ground and air resources are likely underrepresented; that is, fires on which aircraft were most effective may not show up in the data. Fires burning during high or extreme fire danger that grew large because of the burning conditions may be overrepresented. As conditions become extreme, firefighting aircraft are less effective.

From the study:

[T]he sample may be biased towards incidents with substantial aircraft activity and especially those with any airtanker activity. Because AFUE was launched primarily to evaluate large and very large airtankers, choices were consistently made to observe fires with airtanker activity. Recognizing that many fires that receive any airtanker drops typically only receive a few drops, the sample could be underrepresenting fires with limited airtanker activity. Further, many aerial firefighting drops occur on remote fires that make direct observation challenging.

What were the findings of the AFUE?

Much of the AFUE report is based on two performance measures that the study used to determine the effectiveness of an aircraft, Interaction Percentage (IP) and Probability of Success (POS). IP, a term apparently invented, is defined as the proportion of drops that interacted with fire. POS is the number of effective drops divided by the total number of drops with known and interacting outcomes.

Interaction Percentages firefighting aircraft AFUE
Interaction Percentages, from AFUE

The interaction percentage data compares apples and oranges. Helicopters and scoopers primarily drop water, while fixed wing tankers that are not scoopers almost always drop long term fire retardant. Since water is a very short term fire retarding agent, it is usually dropped directly on the flaming front. If it were dropped out ahead of the fire, much of it would run off the fuel, soak into the ground, or evaporate before the fire reached that location.

Long term fire retardant dropped by air tankers is usually placed ahead of the fire. It might be dozens of feet away, or when pretreating a ridgeline, protecting a point, or securing a planned indirect fireline it could be thousands of feet away from the flaming front. Retardant, much more viscous than water, adheres to the vegetation more so than water, retains moisture for a while, and can even interfere with the process of combustion after it dries.

Therefore, comparing the interactions of water dropping and retardant dropping aircraft is not a reasonable exercise. Water droppers should always be very close to 100 percent on the interaction scale, while retardant droppers will have lower numbers, in part because some of the drops are done to support indirect firelines or ignition operations that did not interact with the main fire.

Helicopter 3PA, an AS350B (N833PA)
Helicopter 3PA, an AS350B (N833PA) on the Elephant Butte Fire southwest of Denver, July 13, 2020. Photo by skippyscage.com.

The chart which shows small Type 3 helicopters having 100 percent interaction does not mean that dropping 100 gallons of water is going to have a larger overall fire-slowing result than a 75 percent interaction DC-10 very large air tanker dropping 94 times as much liquid.

The interaction rates of single engine, large, and very large air tankers all range from about 74 percent to 80 percent. And in the helicopter category, it is about 87 percent to 100, with the small 100-gallon Type 3 having the highest number. The largest Type 1 helicopters carry 2,500 to 3,000 gallons; their interaction percentage is about 10 points higher than the average retardant dropping air tanker.

Drop Outcomes, AFUE
Drop Outcomes, AFUE

The study also rates the aircraft on the probability of success, only taking into account drops that actually interacted with the fire. When used on a large fire the helicopters averaged about 0.73 and the retardant dropping air tankers, about 0.72. If excluding the small Type 3 helicopters which are not often used to drop water on large fires, the helicopter average increases to about 0.84

What did the AFUE study recommend?

Continue reading “A 9-year USFS aerial firefighting study left many questions unanswered”

CAL FIRE Director, “Our hand crew capacity is really dismal”

Inmate hand crews are at 30-40 percent capacity

California Drought Monitor, April 13, 2021
California Drought Monitor, April 13, 2021.

As California faces a looming fire season with about 90 percent of the state in moderate to exceptional drought, the Director of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, Thom Porter, is concerned about the wildfire readiness of the agency.

Below is an excerpt from the Mendocino Voice, April 9, 2021:

“The operational concerns that I have are really in boots on the ground,” said Porter. “We’re fairly well staffed — on the wildland side of the department — at the engine company level, dozers are pretty good. We’re really good on aircraft and feeling better all the time on our aircraft program — but our hand crew capacity is really dismal.”

In the past, Cal Fire has had 190 prison crews available for the season. This year they have less than 70, according to Porter. Out of  “So we’re somewhere between 30% to 40% capacity currently with the inmate program,” said Porter. “Not good.”

The prisoner crews, which Cal Fire usually refers to as the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) crews, have been slashed during COVID, as outbreaks have significantly shrunk training programs. “We’re well over 1000 [firefighters] short now,” said Porter. “That is the biggest vulnerability and as far as me, Thom Porter, director of Cal Fire, I’m concerned.” However, some of this gap in firefighter staffing may be filled with some $80 million that Governor Gavin Newsom has allocated to Cal Fire using emergency funds.

Update on the snow drought

The snow water equivalent is below 50 percent in parts of the southwestern quarter of the U.S.

Snow Drought, April 11, 2021
Snow Drought, April 11, 2021.

I learned years ago that it is folly in February, March, or April to attempt to predict the outcome of the summer/fall wildfire season in the Western United States. If the weather in the summer is relatively cool and wet, the fire season will not be extremely busy.

Having said that, a glance at the snow water equivalent dated April 11 shows that it is far below normal in the Western states except for Washington, Oregon, Montana, and northern Idaho.

It is below 50 percent in some areas of California, Utah, Arizona, South Dakota, and New Mexico. In southeast Arizona it is zero to four percent of average.

Couple that with the higher than average temperatures and lower than average precipitation expected in some of these areas and, dare I say it, if the predictions are correct, there could be more wildfire activity than average in the southwestern one-quarter of the U.S. this year.

The following outlooks were produced about three weeks ago, so they should be taken with a grain of salt.

Precipitation outlook May through July, 2021
Precipitation outlook May through July, 2021.
Precipitation outlook, May through July, 2021
Precipitation outlook, May through July, 2021.

Senate unanimously passes Washington state’s wildfire legislation

The bill enhances wildfire suppression capability, forest health, and community resilience

Cougar Creek Fire, Okanogan-Wenatchee NF, Washington
Cougar Creek Fire, Okanogan-Wenatchee NF, Washington. Photo by Kari Greer, August 16, 2018.

Legislation appropriating additional funding to beef up Washington state’s wildland fire suppression capability on the ground and in the air passed unanimously in the Senate Friday. It had already passed the House in the same manner and now heads back to the House which will accept or reject the changes made in the Senate. The legislative session is slated to adjourn April 25.

The number of acres burned in Washington wildfires last year, 812,000, was more than four times the average in the 2000s. In eastern Washington, 80 percent of the buildings were destroyed by the Babb-Malden Fire in September, 2020. The number of acres blackened in  Oregon last year, just across the border, was the second highest ever recorded.

The bill appropriates $125 million for the Department of Natural Resources to create for the first time a dedicated fund to suppress and mitigate wildfires over the next two-year budget period.

A similar bill was introduced last year but failed to pass, possibly because it also stipulated that a portion of the funds would be raised by establishing a surtax on home insurance premiums. This latest version left it up to the legislators to come up with a source for the money.

For two of the last three years, Washington had the worst air quality in the world due to smoke from wildfires.

The requested funds can be sorted into four categories:

Wildfire Response — $75.2 million

The bill creates positions for 100 more firefighters, adding three 20-person hand crews, 20 dozer operators, and two 10-person “post-release” crews comprised of formerly incarcerated persons who served on state fire response crews.

The bill also allows the purchase of two intelligence gathering fixed wing aircraft to be used on fires. Their ten very old UH-1H Huey helicopters would receive upgrades of some systems including night-flying capabilities. Washington does not own any air tankers, but in 2020 they had approximately six privately owned single engine air tankers (SEATS) on contract.

Forest Restoration — $31.4 million

The legislation fully funds and accelerates the DNR’s 20-Year Forest Health Strategic Plan, which calls for restoring natural wildfire resistance to 1.25 million acres of forest.

Workforce Development — $5.9 million

Provides career pathways for foresters, firefighters and mill workers.

Community Resilience — $12.6 million

Makes investments at the home, neighborhood, and community levels to reduce wildfire risk and protect communities. Includes investments in defensive strategies at the community level such as fuel breaks, prescribed fire, and creating defensible green space, plus direct assistance to home owners to secure their property and neighborhood with programs like FireWise.

California to authorize $536 million for wildfire mitigation

About double what has been spent in recent years

Zogg Fire
Zogg Fire, in Northern California, looking west from West Peak at 3:46 p.m. PDT Sept. 27, 2020. AlertWildfire.

A bill expected to be signed by California’s Governor next week will authorize $536 million for forest management and wildfire mitigation in the state. This is about double what has been spent in recent years.

The final survey of the season found the snowpack at 59 percent of average, and most of the state’s reservoirs are at considerably lower levels than their historical averages. Most of California is in drought, ranging from moderate to exceptional, according to the April 6 Drought Monitor.

Drought Monitor, April 6, 2021
Drought Monitor, April 6, 2021.

After budget cutbacks last year anticipating that the COVID-19 pandemic would reduce incoming funds, California ended up with a significant surplus.

Anticipating a greater need for wildfire mitigation, and now having dollars available, the Governor’s office released a statement that read in part:

“With California facing another extremely dry year, it is critical that we get a head start on reducing our fire risk. We are doing that by investing more than half a billion dollars on projects and programs that provide improved fire prevention for all parts of California.

“Key parts of the Administration’s initial proposal have been supplemented by legislative ideas that will pay dividends over the years, such as greater investments in forest health projects, improvements on defensible space, home hardening against fires, fire prevention grants, and prevention workforce training. The plan includes public and private lands vegetation management, community-focused efforts for prevention and resilience and economic stimulus for the forestry economy.”

About $22 million is being committed to help low-income and disadvantaged homeowners implement structure hardening to make them more resistant to wildfire.

At least $123 million is going toward the Fire Prevention Grants program. The funding will be awarded using criteria that maintains fire risk severity as the primary factor, and then prioritizes projects that protect a larger population base or number of structures relative to the size of the grant.

Democratic Sen. Bill Dodd, a member of the Senate Wildfire Working Group, said the new spending package includes more than $280 million for forest management and $200 million for fuel breaks.