Greenwood Fire burns nearly 26,000 acres in northeast Minnesota

Twenty miles northwest of Silver Bay

12:29 p.m. CDT August 26, 2021

Greenwood Fire, August 15, 2021 Minnesota
Greenwood Fire, August 15, 2021. US Forest Service photo.

The Greenwood Fire has burned nearly 26,000 acres in Northeast Minnesota in the 10 days since it started from a lightning strike August 15. The fire is 20 air miles northwest of Lake Superior and the community of Silver Bay.

The vegetation that is burning, brush and timber, has very low fuel moistures, similar to late fall conditions. The Energy Release Component which can help predict the intensity and rate of spread of a fire, is extremely high, between the 90th and 97th percentile.

Greenwood Fire
Greenwood Fire in northeast Minnesota, August 23, 2021.

On Wednesday the  fire was active in the southern portion. Firing operations were conducted along Highway 1 and the Jackpot Lake Road and along Highway 2 at the southwest end of the fire.

Greenwood Fire map Aug. 25, 2021
Greenwood Fire map Aug. 25, 2021

The priority Thursday is to hold and improve after Wednesday’s firing operations. With the support of air resources, engines, bulldozers, and other equipment crews will reduce the burnable natural fuels near homes and near the edge of the fire.

A total of 476 personnel are working on the fire, including cooperators and contractors.

The weather forecast for Thursday includes a 40 percent chance of rain in the afternoon which will be the beginning of a wet pattern that should persist until Sunday morning, bringing more than an inch of precipitation. This could mean photographs like these will not be possible for a while.

Greenwood Fire Minnesota
Greenwood Fire, defensive burn-out operation, August 22, 2021. InciWeb.

The Greenwood Fire and others were easily detected by the GOES-16 satellite:

Firefighters on Caldor Fire concentrating on dozers and firing operations

It has burned more than 136,000 acres 12 miles southwest of Lake Tahoe

7:51 a.m. PDT August 26, 2021

Map of the Caldor Fire 1223 a.m. August 26, 2021
Map of the Caldor Fire. The pink line was the perimeter mapped by a fixed wing aircraft at 12:23 a.m. PDT August 26, 2021. The blue line was the perimeter 50 hours earlier. The pink shaded areas had extreme heat during the mapping flight.

The northeast side of the 136,000-acre Caldor Fire 12 miles southwest of Lake Tahoe was active Wednesday night. The fire added about 10,000 acres over the last 24 hours. The spot fire north of Highway 50 has continued to spread east, growing to approximately 2,600 acres. The photo below was taken in that area.

To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Caldor Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.

Caldor Fire, Wrights Lake Rd
Caldor Fire, Wrights Lake Road north of Hwy. 50, Aug. 25, 2021. CAL FIRE photo.

The weather forecast for Thursday predicts 7 to 8 mph winds out of the southwest and northwest with relative humidity in the teens. Friday will be about the same but with lower humidity. These conditions will allow the fire to keep spreading.

Resources assigned as of Wednesday evening included 243 fire engines, 27 water tenders, 21 helicopters, 80 hand crews, and 51 dozers for a total of 2,897 personnel.


Caldor Fire Google 3-D lookin northeast at 1255 p.m. PDT August 25, 2021 copy
3-D map of the northeast end of the Caldor Fire looking northeast. The red line was the perimeter at 10:07 p.m. PDT August 24, 2021.

Firefighters on the 126,000-acre Caldor Fire are hoping to slow the spread with extensive use of dozers. They are constructing firelines out ahead from which they plan to ignite backfires or other burning operations. This will remove the available fuel so that when the fire reaches those barriers it will stop, at least at those locations.

The fire is still about 14 miles southwest of Lake Tahoe.

On the map below produced by the Incident Management Team the “xxxxxx”  indicates dozer lines completed at the end of the day August 24. Crews are working on extending these lines and tying in the various segments. Air tankers are slowing the spread on the northeast side in Division J to give the dozers time to complete the lines.

Caldor Fire map
Map of the Caldor Fire, by the Incident Management Team for day shift August 25, 2021.

On Wednesday the fire primarily spread to the northeast along Highway 50 toward Twin Bridges. Firing operations continued on the southwest side but were slowed by numerous small spot fires that were quickly extinguished. The north side of the fire is backing downhill to the north toward Highway 50 achieving results not unlike a well-planned prescribed fire.

The spot fire across Highway 50 has grown to about 2,000 acres and spotted to the east across Wrights Lake Road.

The weather conditions recorded at Barney Ridge were moderate in the afternoon with 5 to 8 mph winds gusting at 12 to 16 mph out of the southwest while the relative humidity was around 20 percent. The forecast for Thursday is for 8 to 11 mph winds out of the west with humidity in the mid-teens.

The fire has destroyed 465 residences and 178 other structures. The El Dorado County Sheriff in collaboration with CAL FIRE has released a map displaying properties that have been inspected for any damage or that have been destroyed by the Caldor Fire.

Continue reading “Firefighters on Caldor Fire concentrating on dozers and firing operations”

Study finds exposure to wildfire smoke can increase premature birth risk

Smoke from wildfires may have contributed to thousands of additional premature births in California between 2007 and 2012.

Satellite photo, smoke in Northern California
Satellite photo. Most of Northern California covered by a layer of smoke, at 9:11 a.m. PDT Aug. 7, 2021.

Exposure to wildfire smoke during pregnancy increases the risk that a baby will be born too early, a new Stanford University study suggests.

Exposure to wildfire smoke during pregnancy increases the risk that a baby will be born too early, a new Stanford University study suggests. (Image credit: Getty Images)

The study, published Aug. 14 in Environmental Research, finds there may have been as many as 7,000 extra preterm births in California attributable to wildfire smoke exposure between 2007 and 2012. These births occurred before 37 weeks of pregnancy when incomplete development heightens risk of various neurodevelopmental, gastrointestinal and respiratory complications, and even death.

Wildfire smoke contains high levels of the smallest and deadliest type of particle pollution, known as PM 2.5. These specks of toxic soot, or particulate matter, are so fine they can embed deep in the lungs and pass into the bloodstream, just like the oxygen molecules we need to survive.

The research comes as massive wildfires are again blazing through parched landscapes in the western U.S. – just a year after a historic wildfire season torched more than 4 million acres of California and produced some of the worst daily air pollution ever recorded in the state. During the 2020 fire season, more than half of the state’s population experienced a month of wildfire smoke levels in the range of unhealthy to hazardous.

This year could be worse, said Stanford environmental economist Marshall Burke, a co-author of the new study. And yet much remains unknown about the health impacts of these noxious plumes, which contribute a growing portion of fine particle pollution nationwide and have a different chemical makeup from other ambient sources of PM 2.5, such as agriculture, tailpipe emissions and industry.

One possible explanation for the link between wildfire smoke exposure and preterm birth, the authors say, is that the pollution may trigger an inflammatory response, which then sets delivery in motion. The increase in risk is relatively small in the context of all the factors that contribute to the birth of a healthy, full-term baby. “However, against a backdrop where we know so little about why some women deliver too soon, prematurely, and why others do not, finding clues like the one here helps us start piecing the bigger puzzle together,” said co-author Gary Shaw, DrPH, a professor of pediatrics and co-primary investigator of Stanford’s March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center.

Extreme wildfires

The new results show wildfire smoke may have contributed to more than 6 percent of preterm births in California in the worst smoke year of the study period, 2008, when a severe lightning storm, powerful winds, high temperatures and a parched landscape combined for a deadly and destructive fire season – one that has now been dwarfed by the record-setting infernos of 2020 and ongoing blazes like the Dixie fire in Northern California.

“In the future, we expect to see more frequent and intense exposure to wildfire smoke throughout the West due to a confluence of factors, including climate change, a century of fire suppression and construction of more homes along the fire-prone fringes of forests, scrublands and grasslands. As a result, the health burden from smoke exposure – including preterm births – is likely to increase,” said lead author Sam Heft-Neal, a research scholar at Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.

The research provides new evidence for the value of investing in prescribed burns, mechanical thinning, or other efforts to reduce the risk of extreme wildfires. Given that premature births cost the U.S. healthcare system an estimated $25 billion per year, even modest reductions in preterm birth risk could yield “enormous societal benefits,” said Burke, an associate professor of Earth system science at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). “Our research highlights that reducing wildfire risk and the air pollution that accompanies it is one way of achieving these societal benefits.”

‘No safe level of exposure’

The researchers analyzed satellite data of smoke plumes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to identify smoke days for each of 2,610 zip codes. They paired these data with estimates of ground-level PM 2.5 pollution, which were developed using a machine learning algorithm that incorporates data from air quality sensors, satellite observations and computer models of how chemicals move through Earth’s atmosphere. They pulled additional data from California birth records, excluding twins, triplets and higher multiples, which commonly arrive early.

After accounting for other factors known to influence preterm birth risk, such as temperature, baseline pollution exposure and the mother’s age, income, race or ethnic background, they looked at how patterns of preterm birth within each zip code changed when the number and intensity of smoke days rose above normal for that location.

They found every additional day of smoke exposure during pregnancy raised the risk of preterm birth, regardless of race, ethnicity or income. And a full week of exposure translated to a 3.4 percent greater risk relative to a mother exposed to no wildfire smoke. Exposure to intense smoke during the second trimester – between 14 and 26 weeks of pregnancy – had the strongest impact, especially when smoke contributed more than 5 additional micrograms per cubic meter to daily PM 2.5 concentrations. “If one can avoid smoke exposure by staying indoors or wearing an appropriate mask while outdoors, that would be good health practice for all,” Shaw said.

The findings build on an established link between particle pollution and adverse birth outcomes, including preterm birth, low birth weight and infant deaths. But the study is among the first to isolate the effect of wildfire smoke on early births and to tease out the importance of exposure timing.

“Our work, together with a number of other recent papers, clearly shows that there’s no safe level of exposure to particulate matter. Any exposure above zero can worsen health impacts,” said Burke, who is also deputy director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “While as a society it will be extremely difficult to fully eliminate all pollutants from the air, our research suggests that further reductions in key pollutants below current ‘acceptable’ levels could be massively beneficial for public health.”

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Mike.

Firefighter killed while working on Oregon fire identified

Frumencio Ruiz Carapia
Frumencio Ruiz Carapia

The firefighter who died Monday while working on a wildfire southeast of Eugene, Oregon has been identified as 56-year old Frumencio Ruiz Carapia of Medford.

Mr. Carapia was working on the Gales Fire when he was struck by a falling tree, according to a news release Tuesday from Lane County Sheriff’s Sgt. Tom Speldrich.

Despite immediate efforts by those around him, Ruiz Carapia died at the scene, the news release said. No other injuries were reported.

The 14,000-acre Gales Fire is part of the Middle Fork Complex of fires. Personnel across the complex shared a moment of silence Tuesday morning in his memory.

Mr. Carapia was a member of a contract Type 2 Initial Attack hand crew. Two other firefighters who were injured were treated at the scene.

“The wildland firefighting community and our partners mourn this loss,” said Incident Commander Brian Gales of Northwest 13 Incident Management Team. “Our thoughts and prayers are with his family.”

Gales Fire map

A preliminary investigation showed the accident wasn’t the result of any tree cutting but that the tree unexpectedly snapped and fell to the ground, according to the sheriff’s office.

After his death Monday first responders formed a procession in the firefighter’s honor as his body, wrapped in an American flag, was wheeled past them before being prepared for transport back home.

Friends of Ruiz Carapia have established a GoFundMe page to support his wife and children.

U.S. Senator Ron Wyden put out a statement regarding Ruiz Carapia’s death on Tuesday evening:

“A sad reminder about the dangers that firefighters face to protect all of us here in Oregon. My deepest condolences to the family, friends and loved ones of Mr. Carapia.”

We send out our sincere condolences to the family, friends, and co-workers of Mr. Carapia.

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Al and others.

Why are fires in the West growing larger this year?

Drought — fuel moisture — energy release component

Observed precipitation
Observed precipitation during the 30 days before August 23, 2021.

There are a number of ways to analyze the behavior of wildland fires using data that is easily available. The amount of moisture in the live and dead vegetation is a critical factor in determining how readily it will burn, because it has to be cooked off before the grass, brush, or woody vegetation will vigorously combust.

The amount of precipitation over days, weeks, months, and years affects how wildfires burn. The map above depicts precipitation during the 30-day period ending August 23, 2021.

The Drought Monitor is one way of using an index to express how the precipitation compares to normal for an area. As you can see below most of California is in either Exceptional Drought (the highest level of drought) or Extreme Drought. The only areas in California that are not, are a tiny sliver in the extreme northwest corner, and the five southernmost counties. Both drought categories can also be found in areas of Oregon and Idaho which I will get to later.

Drought Monitor, August 17, 2021

Extended drought lowers the moisture content of both live and dead vegetation. When that occurs, it takes less energy out of a fire to cook off the moisture, and that energy instead goes toward enhanced combustion of the material and then preheating and igniting nearby vegetation, resulting in faster spread of the fire.

The observed precipitation map at the top of the page shows that most of California received less than 1/10 inch in the 30-day period. This, and the multi-year drought has led to the 1,000-hour time-lag fuels, woody material 3 to six inches in diameter, being extremely dry. Fuel monitoring stations in the foothills of the Sacramento Valley and the Northern Sierras are finding moisture levels lower than kiln-dried lumber, which is usually 8 to 12 percent. Both stations recently have been recording levels around 6 percent, which is near and sometimes below the lowest levels ever recorded for the date (the red lines on the charts). The Incident Management Team on the Caldor Fire said the 1,000-hour fuels are at three percent moisture.

1,000 hour fuel moisture Sacramento Valley-Foothills fire

In these charts, “Min” is the historic minimum for the date. “Max” is the historic maximum for the date.

1,000 hour fuel moisture, Northern Sierras

Knowing the moisture content of the fuel is an ingredient in determining another index, the Energy Release Component (ERC) which can help predict the intensity and rate of spread of a fire. It is defined as a number related to the available energy (BTU) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. The ERC is considered a composite fuel moisture index as it reflects the contribution of all live and dead fuels to potential fire intensity. As live fuels cure and dead fuels dry, the ERC will increase and can be described as a build-up index. The ERC has memory. Each daily calculation considers the past 7 days in calculating the new number. Daily variations of the ERC are relatively small as wind is not part of the calculation.

Since mid-May the ERCs at two locations in Northern California have been flirting with the historic daily highs, either slightly above or slightly below. This is consistent with the observed fire activity this year on several large fires in the northern part of the state. The Dixie Fire is closing in on three-quarters of a million acres, and the Caldor Fire in nine days has blackened 117,000 acres. Fire Behavior Analysts at the fires are describing historically low fuel moistures.

Here is an excerpt from the recent Fuel Model Summary for the Caldor Fire:

There is a heavy dead and down component with drought-stressed fuels. Live fuels are cured to levels normally seen in late September, and fuels are extremely receptive to spotting. Fuel moistures are historically low. Northern California remains under a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory. ERC’s are above the 97th percentile. 100 hr and 1000hr fuels are below the 3rd percentile.

These fires are primarily fuel-driven. They are burning very well with gentle breezes. When the wind increases above 10 mph, they are hauling ass.

ERC Sac Valley-Foothills fire
Energy Release Component, Northern Sierras fire
Continue reading “Why are fires in the West growing larger this year?”

There is very little fire history in front of the Caldor Fire

Fire history in vicinity Caldor Fire
Fire history in vicinity of the Caldor Fire, 2000 through August 23, 2021.

In order for the spread of the 117,000-acre Caldor Fire to stop or to be suppressed by firefighters, something will have to change — either the weather or the fuel.

If the relative humidity stayed above 40 percent and the wind speed was less than five mph, it might lose enough intensity to allow firefighters on the ground and in the air to take direct action on the flanks. But there is no sign of that happening this week.

To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Caldor Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.

Let’s look at the fuel, which is the primary driver of this fire.

From the Incident Management Team:.

There is a heavy dead and down component with drought-stressed fuels. Live fuels are cured to levels normally seen in late September, and fuels are extremely receptive to spotting. Fuel moistures are historically low. Northern California remains under a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory. ERC’s are above the 97th percentile. 100 hr and 1000hr fuels are below [3 percent fuel moisture].

The predominant direction of spread has been to the northeast or east-northeast. If it continues in that direction for the next 10 miles it will not encounter the footprints of any fires that have burned in the last 21 years large enough to have a significant effect on the spread. Just beyond that distance on the north side of Highway 50 is the 2007 Angora Fire southwest of South Lake Tahoe.

North of Highway 50 four miles northeast of the location of the fire Monday night there is a large rocky area several miles across with sparse fuel. It is north of Twin Bridges and west of Fallen Leaf and could slow the fire in that location, but there’s no guarantee that it can’t find a way to burn around, through, or over it. Spot fires have been igniting a mile out in front; one was 1.8 miles.

Hazardous fuel treatments Caldor Fire
Hazardous fuel treatments in vicinity of the Caldor Fire, 2000-2021.

Another fuel-related factor to consider is the fuel treatments that have been accomplished over the years, shown in green on the map above. The Caldor Fire has already burned across dozens, and it will be interesting to find out if they had the intended effect. There has been a great deal of fuels work in the South Lake Tahoe area.

A reduction in the volume of vegetation resulting from a fuels project in most cases is not expected to stop a high-intensity wildland fire. At best in those areas the fire may spread more slowly and perhaps throw out fewer burning embers.

But by far the best protection for structures is make them as fire resistant as possible, including the envelope of the structure itself — the roof, vents, siding, doors, windows, foundation, fences, eaves, and decks. A FEMA publication (13 MB) has excellent detailed recommendations. And in the Home Ignition Zone the NFPA and FireWise programs recommend reducing flammable material within 100 feet of structures and spacing the crowns of trees at least 18 feet apart that are within 30 feet of the home, 12 feet apart at 30 to 60 feet, and 6 feet apart at 60 to 100 feet. Another house that is 15 to 50 feet away is also fuel, and if it ignites will be a serious threat.

The LA Times (subscription) published an excellent article August 21 about rethinking forest management — the effects of logging and prescribed fire, and learning to live with fire.