News and opinion about wildland fire
Most of the West and 95 percent of California are in drought. In Southern California drought conditions are predicted to further develop into the winter and persist across the rest of the state.
The western two-thirds of the United States is expected to have lower than normal precipitation the rest of December. All of the country will likely be warmer than normal during the period except for the Southeast and portions of the Northwest.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Wildfire6 Comments on Officials report 31 structures were destroyed in the Bond Fire in SoCal The fire blackened 6,686 acres
The spread of the 6,686-acre Bond Fire in Southern California east of Irvine has been stopped for several days but there are still two hand crews and 15 fire engines assigned. Officials report that 31 structures were destroyed and $14.4 million has been spent on suppression since it started December 2, 2020.
The fire burned very close to numerous homes in Silverado Canyon, as well as the Orange County/U.S. Forest Service fire station. Judging from the video below and the vegetation seen in the satellite photos, there may have been an interesting fire fight at the station.
Today Fire Photo Girl posted some excellent video she shot during the early hours of the fire.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized2 Comments on Forensic analysis of the Beirut Port explosion 
There was horrific loss of life at the explosion in the port of Beirut, Lebanon on August 4, 2020. It was detected by the United States Geological Survey as a seismic event of magnitude 3.3, and is considered one of the most powerful non-nuclear explosions in history.
As a former wildland fire investigator I am fascinated by the forensic analysis of the event. The explanatory video (below) was posted by Forensic Architecture. The knowledge and skill that was the foundation of this analysis and simulation is astounding.
Their investigation found that the contents of the warehouse where the incident occurred included:
The Beirut Port Explosions (English) from Forensic Architecture on Vimeo.
Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Jim.
Officials in Australia have started a process that should be of interest to fire managers and public officials in the United States. They are establishing across the continent common terminology and symbols to indicate the level of threat from an existing wildfire or other emergency and the recommended action that should be taken. Previously there was not complete consistency among the eight states and territories, which at times led to confusion about what the level of danger was and the action that should be taken. This was especially a problem near the borders of the states when a message from across the border may use unfamiliar jargon.
The Australian Bushfire Warning System is a national, three level bushfire alert system, “Advice”, “Watch and Act”, and “Emergency Warning”. Australia recognized the inconsistency problem with their 8 states.
But not only do the 50 U.S. states have different systems for describing potential and current wildfire conditions, they also may differ city to city and county to county.
Warnings for evacuations
One of the most stressful times in a person’s life can be when they are forced to evacuate due to a wildfire, flood, or extreme weather event. This is not the time to give them ambiguous instructions, or use jargon many of them have never heard before. LEVEL TWO EVACUATION! What in the hell does that mean? Or, EVACUATION IS AT THE SET LEVEL! Or, WATCH AND ACT!
Recently used evacuation jargon has included:
And I won’t even get into some that have been used for large structures such as Horizontal, Vertical, Partial, Vertical Phased, or Progressive Horizontal.
After reflecting on the massive evacuations required by wildfires in 2017 and 2018, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services recommended standard evacuation terminology and phrases for cities and counties to use during an emergency within the state, based in part on a White Paper written for the office in 2019.
Evacuation Order: Immediate threat to life. This is a lawful order to leave now. The area is lawfully closed to public access.
Evacuation Warning: Potential threat to life and/or property. Those who require additional time to evacuate, and those with pets and livestock should leave now.
Shelter in Place: Go indoors. Shut and lock doors and windows. Prepare to self-sustain until further notice and/or contacted by emergency personnel for additional direction.
Evacuation Order(s) Lifted: The formal announcement of lifting evacuations in an area currently under evacuation.
Hard Closure: Closed to all traffic except Fire and Law Enforcement.
Soft Closure: Closed to all traffic except Fire, Law Enforcement and critical Incident resources (i.e. Utility, Caltrans, City/County Roads etc. or those needed to repair or restore infrastructure).
Resident Only Closure: Soft closure with the additional allowance of residents and local government agencies assisting with response and recovery.
In most U.S. locations fire departments do not have the authority to issue evacuation orders. It is generally stipulated they have the expertise to know when and where it should take place but they make that recommendation to law enforcement who actually issue the order to the public, and enforce it when necessary.
Notifying citizens that they are in the path of a fire has proven to be extremely difficult, subject to technical problems and human error. Many jurisdictions have purchased reverse 911 systems that can make phone calls or send texts to warn residents in a specific area of a threat. In some cases each person has to opt-in, and if you’re a visitor you may not be notified. There are a few apps available for mobile phones, some of which are not operated by government agencies and may not be 100 percent reliable for immediate notification.
Wildfire apps and services
The U.S. Forest Service has had Wildfires Near Me in development since 2016, and it is still in beta. It’s not an app, but you can sign up online, give them an address you’re interested in, and specify to be notified by email or text message of wildfires within your desired distance from that address. It does not issue emergency notifications such as evacuation orders, but you might receive a notice each time an updated Incident Status Summary form, (ICS-209) has been entered in the NIFC system, once or twice a day, about fires in that location. Then you can go to InciWeb to get more details.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection has a “web-based app” but it can’t be installed from the Android, Google, or Apple app stores. It can provide some information about fires managed by CAL FIRE, but it generally has no information about US Forest Service responsibility fires or those of local jurisdiction. Colorado also has an app, Colorado Wildfire Watch App which is designed to only be available to people in the state.
Wireless Emergency Alerts
A system in the United States, Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), is another possibility and can be activated by state and local public safety officials, the National Weather Service (NWS), the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (think Amber Alert), and the president of the United States. Beginning in 2019 the accuracy of the geotargeting for WEA became more precise, requiring providers to deliver the alerts to the area specified by the alert originator with no more than a 1/10 of a mile overshoot.
The system uses location processing in the mobile phone itself. The handset receives the alert including the polygon of the alert area, then the phone uses its GPS-assisted location to determine whether it is inside or outside the polygon. Even if you’re far from home, but in the threat area, you should receive the alert.
On August 15, 2020 the NWS used WEA to send out the first ever real time warning about a fire tornado on the Loyalton Fire about 12 miles northwest of Reno, Nevada.
“Our forecasters were tracking the plume on radar and were seeing rotation signatures comparable to that of a tornado. Factoring in public and firefighter safety, they issued a rare tornado warning associated with a large fire,” said NWS Reno Meteorologist and Public Information Officer Chris Smallcomb. Upon inspection, NWS found evidence of three different tornado paths with the largest being a low-grade EF-2. Said Smallcomb, “NWS Reno’s fire tornado warning has resulted in a robust policy conversation within the NWS and partner agencies about the utility of such warnings in a wildland fire situation, since it had never been done before!”
Between January 1 and September 14, 2020, alerting authorities sent 1,750 WEAs. The topics were for missing children AMBER alerts, severe weather, flash floods, and COVID-19 related for mask wearing, shelter-in-place notices, social distancing, and testing facility locations.
Do we need a national fire warning app specifically for wildfires?
Australia has considered the development of a national all-hazard warning app to address the limitations of the bushfire warning apps during the 2019-2020 bushfire season. Some state or local jurisdictions in Australia have apps that can push notifications and have Watch Zone functionalities.
Australia’s Royal Commission report included this about the potential for a national bushfire warning app:
Data from state and territory governments lacks consistency and this presents a challenge to developing a national warning app. Availability of nationally consistent data is a key enabler for the development of a national app by the Australian government, or a commercial provider.
The same limitation may exist in the U.S.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized1 Comment on Australia adopts new standards for emergency warning systems One of the many recommendations in the report issued in October by Australia’s “Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements” was to make the country’s Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) more uniform across the eight states and territories. The goal was to ensure that there is national consistency in the visual display of the AFDRS and action to be taken in response to each rating. Since then progress has been made, which is not always the case down under and in the United States following reports and studies that urge changes to be made.
The new standardized icons representing three levels of warning for five types of events are seen above. Below is what was previously used for bushfires.
The Australian Bushfire Warning System is a national, three level bushfire alert system: “Advice”, “Watch and Act”, and “Emergency Warning”. The alert system is an important framework used by emergency services agencies to indicate the level of threat from a fire and the recommended action that should be taken. The higher the warning level, the greater the risk to life and property.
The Royal Commission’s report indicated that there was some confusion about the meaning of “Watch and Act.”
Research released in November, 2019 showed that nationwide only 53 percent of Australians surveyed understood the required behavior of Watch and Act. On the other hand, only 57 percent understood the behavior required under Emergency Warning.
But the new standards recently issued retain the same three levels, including Watch and Act as the middle level of warning:
Advice (Yellow). An incident has started. There is no immediate danger. Stay up to date in case the situation changes.
Watch and Act (Orange). There is a heightened level of threat. Conditions are changing and you need to start taking action now to protect you and your family.
Emergency Warning (Red). An Emergency Warning is the highest level of warning. You may be in danger and need to take action immediately. Any delay now puts your life at risk.
The video below released December 1, 2020 describes the “New national approach to information and warnings during emergencies and natural disasters like bush fire, flood, storm, extreme heat and severe weather.”
Our take:
Standardizing the icons is a major improvement. However there is still opportunity for confusion about the difference between “Watch and Act” and “Emergency Warning”.
The United States could benefit from some of the lessons learned that are described in the Royal Commission’s report.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized15 Comments on TBT: Everybody has a plan until… For throwback Thursday we’re re-upping an article from December 8, 2018:
While I was watching the Clemson vs. Mississippi State University basketball game today on ESPN2 I didn’t expect to hear words of wisdom or a pithy quote. One of the announcers was Chris Spatola, a former basketball player for Army West Point who is also a veteran. After only 8 minutes into the game MSU had thrown in “tons of three-pointers.” As they talked about how Clemson had hoped to limit MSU’s three-pointers, Mr. Spatola said,
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
The other announcer, Jon Sciambi, recognized the quote as being from Mike Tyson who had been asked by a reporter whether he was worried about Evander Holyfield and the fight plan he had bragged about.
After Mr. Spatola did an impression of Mr. Tyson, Mr. Sciambi said, “I am going to enjoy working with Chris Spatola.”
As a Planning Section Chief on Incident Management Teams, of course I appreciate the necessity of planning. And I think Mr. Tyson’s quote while it at first seems crude and simplistic, actually is worth thinking about and can have multiple messages. The most obvious is that yes, you have a plan, but you encounter difficulties and quickly realize that you’re going to need a Plan B. If you prepared for an alternate strategy, you might succeed after all. If not, well, thanks for playing and here is your Participation Trophy.
Another interpretation is that after encountering unexpected problems, you don’t throw in the towel, but you have the guts and perseverance to keep fighting and working through the complications, eventually achieving the goal and overcoming the odds stacked against you.
Helmuth Von Moltkex said:
No plan survives contact with the enemy.
Bob Robins told me about a good plan on a wildfire that was poorly briefed and executed. He was in one group of firefighters that was attempting to stop the spread of a fire at night by burning out along a road, working toward another group that started at the other end. The objective was to burn the vegetation between the road and the fire, removing the fuel. The fire would then be stopped in that area. When the two groups met, they were horrified to find that they had ignited opposite sides of the road, and they suddenly had a lot more fire to deal with.
General Norman Schwarzkopf directed the planning and strategy to kick the Iraqis out of Kuwait after they invaded the country in 1990. His plan was based on overwhelming force using strong infantry attacks supported by artillery and armor after bombing the crap out of them from the air for weeks. It worked. The ground fighting in Desert Storm was over within about 100 hours. Not long after, most of the U.S. troops returned home. I have latched on to his strategy when writing about using the concept of overwhelming force for the initial attack of new wildfires. It can often be successful, and then everybody goes home and prepares for the next one, not getting bogged down and tying up resources and taxpayer dollars in a months-long campaign.
Here are some other planning-related quotes. Do you have a favorite, or an example of a plan that worked? Or didn’t?
“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”
―
“Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”
―
“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
―
“A goal without a plan is just a wish.”
―
If you don’t know the past, you can’t understand the present and plan properly for the future.”
― Davita’s Harp
“I wasn’t planning to lead, I was standing in the back and then everyone turned around.”
―
“No matter what the work you are doing, be always ready to drop it. And plan it, so as to be able to leave it.”
― Leo Tolstoy, The Journal of Leo Tolstoy
“If you don’t know where you are going, you’ll end up someplace else.”
― Yogi Berra
On December 8 Mississippi State beat Clemson, 82-71. They sank 19 three-point shots (63 percent), led by Lamar Peters who accounted for 9 of them.
