The riskiest place to be during a wildfire is often on the road in a vehicle, according to the research in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. Examples from Australia’s Black Saturday wildfires in 2009, where 35 of 173 of the fatalities occurred during evacuation, and other evacuation fatalities during the 2023 wildfire in Yellowknife, Canada, and the 2018 wildfire in Paradise, California, drove the researchers to try to figure out the common decisions made by people trying to escape.
Of the 116 bushfire-driving videos analyzed (plus 183 flood-driving videos) from You Tube, many people either evacuated late after realizing the situation was more dangerous than they first thought, or drove back to defend their property, the researchers said in an article published in The Conversation, which includes links to many of the videos.
“The clearest advice remains to avoid these situations altogether by evacuating early,” the researchers said in the article. “Ultimately, the safest option is to avoid hazardous driving wherever possible.”
The researchers found that the strongest motivator for when people decided to evacuate, whether late or early, was the presence of other vehicles on evacuation routes. The study reinforced the role of peer behavior in real-time decision-making, leading the researchers to recommend targeted public messaging that explicitly addresses social influence to guide safer decision-making, even when others are engaging in risky behavior.
In another recently published research report, the importance of leaving early rather than late was underscored. This study looked at how the assumptions of emergency managers could create overly optimist estimates of time needed to evacuate by road.
A doctoral dissertation from Arthur Rohaert at Lund University determined that people evacuating from fires drive slower and leave larger gaps between vehicles, signaling that evacuation time estimates may be overly optimistic if simulations don’t take these otherwise small habits into account. Rohaert analyzed traffic data from evacuations during California’s 2019 Kincade Fire and 2020 Glass Fire and used the findings to develop a more robust evacuation simulation framework taking the behavioral patterns of drivers into account.
“The findings challenge intuitive assumptions about evacuation planning, such as the notion that having more evacuation routes consistently improves outcomes,” Rohaert said in his paper. “While this may be known in traffic engineering, it might be less so in emergency management. The findings, therefore, emphasise the need for traffic simulation tools to assess the effectiveness of strategies.”
Over 4,000 firefighters were deployed throughout Portugal due to a recent outbreak of wildfires throughout the north and center regions of the country.
Over 100 fires burned throughout the nation Tuesday into Wednesday, according to the National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority’s wildfire activity map. Most of the active wildfires, 47, are categorized as bushfires. There have been far fewer forest and agriculture fires, at 11 and 5, respectively.
The most affected areas are the town of Arouca in the Aveiro District, the municipality of Ponte da Barca in the Viana do Castelo District), and the village of Penamacor in the Castelo Branco District, according to the European Union’s Earth observation program Copernicus. The village of Fornos de Carvão, in the Arouca municipality, was evacuated early Wednesday morning.
The wildfire with the highest single response in the nation is a forest structure fire burning near the populated areas of Canelas and Espiunca. Nearly 700 firefighters have deployed to the region, along with 244 ground transports and multiple aircraft.
Every community throughout Portugal falls either between the highest or high fire danger for the next week, according to the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere. The conditions outlaw numerous burning activities, including piled waste burning, bonfires for recreation, and rockets with lit fuses.
For weeks, Alberta Wildfire officials have begged people to stay away from evacuation zones, and now the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) will charge a man who ignored those warnings and had to be rescued when he became trapped by flames. RCMP said that Friday afternoon in the Fox Creek area, a 72,830-hectare fire that’s part of the Eagle Complex trapped a man who became stranded northwest of Fox Creek. GlobalNews.ca reported that police were called at 2:45 p.m. about a man stranded, where he had attempted to use a gravel road to get around an evacuation zone checkpoint. Because of active fire in the area, police said it was not safe for first responders to go in and rescue the man — so a forestry helicopter flew in and airlifted him to safety.
On Sunday, RCMP said they are seeking to lay common nuisance charges against the man for diverting firefighting resources.
“Alberta RCMP continue to be deployed with specialized units to assist with public safety and crime reduction efforts during these fires,” said district advisory NCO Staff Sgt. Neal Fraser in a statement. The man’s name was not yet released; RCMP expected details to come later this week. On Monday, Alberta Wildfire said the fire near Fox Creek is still burning out of control but hasn’t grown toward the community in the past day.
Rain was expected late Monday. The province said firefighters are taking advantage of the quieter fire behavior to reinforce a fire guard west of Fox Creek and to build a new line along the southern edge of an excursion that crossed Highway 43 north of Fox Creek. Heavy equipment is also working on fire guards, to remove hazardous rotten trees that pose a risk to both firefighters and area residents. As of Monday, there were 164 provincial wildland firefighters and support personnel working the fire, along with a structural protection unit and the Fox Creek Fire Department.
Also helping were firefighters from Colorado and New Brunswick, and about 100 soldiers from 1 Combat Engineer Regiment out of CFB Edmonton.
There were also 17 helicopters working on the Eagle Complex, including two heavy helicopters dedicated to dropping water with buckets.
Evacuation at the Fort McMurray Fire in Alberta, Canada May, 2016.
The Department of Homeland Security hosted a proof-of-concept demonstration of the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) integration model Monday, August 15, in Fairfax, VA. The model integrates next generation technologies with the Federal Emergency Management Agency Integrated Public Alert Warning System (IPAWS), enabling alerting authorities to disseminate Wireless Emergency Alerts with new capabilities such as displaying hazard and evacuation alert information on the “infotainment” screens in vehicles.
The DHS is working with partners to develop a new method for putting life safety alerts, such as evacuation alerts, into navigation applications during emergencies. Doing so will not only provide alerts to an increasingly mobile public, but also help the public make informed navigation decisions in all-hazard situations.
“Effective communication of emergency fire information and evacuation routes to people in an endangered area is a necessity for first responders striving to manage emergency operations and guide safe public response actions,” said Norman Speicher, Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate program manager. “Connecting emergency management tools to situations in the WUI will help emergency management officials achieve better routes and procedures by utilizing cutting-edge technologies that help define, share, and manage the status, and communicate evacuation routes and safety zones in real-time.”
Marin County fire history 1917-2020. The blue areas were all prior to 1980. NIFC map.
Many residents and government officials in Marin County recognize the importance of evacuation planning, but there is no agreement on which agency has the responsibility. In March voters approved a parcel tax that would raise about $19 million each year for the newly formed Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority (WPA), but the county’s Civil Grand Jury ruled in December that the agency’s plans do not adequately address the issue.
Marin County, outlined in red. (Google)
From the Marin Independent Journal:
Part of that funding will go toward studying evacuation routes, creating evacuation maps and clearing vegetation along narrow Marin roads. But the agency does not have the authority or the funding to take on infrastructure projects that could create safer roads for people fleeing wildfires, the grand jury said.
“The grand jury is concerned that Marin’s public may have a false sense of security regarding evacuation routes, thinking that all issues relating to the matter will be handled by the new government agency,” the report says.
While Marin County fire Chief Jason Weber agreed that the wildfire authority doesn’t have the funding to take on road infrastructure projects, he said the agency is taking the initial step in addressing Marin’s evacuation safety problem.
Marin County, population 258,826, is bordered on the west by the Pacific Ocean and stretches from the Golden Gate Bridge north to Bodega Bay and east to Novato and San Pablo Bay.
Evacuation planning will likely point out a need for road infrastructure projects, for which the WPA does not have funding. The Transportation Authority of Marin, or TAM, is the only agency in the county with access to funding and authority over countywide transportation projects. The grand jury recommended that a representative from TAM serve as a non-voting member of the WPA.
Marin County Civil Grand Jury, Wildfire Preparedness: A New Approach, Appendix C, April 25, 2019.
Fire officials in Marin County have identified “choke points” where residents are likely to get caught in congestion when evacuating from wildfires. Since many of those run through multiple jurisdictions, the grand jury said TAM should serve as the coordinating agency but TAM officials “continue to deny that the agency has any role or responsibility for considering evacuation needs in its transportation projects.”
Community infrastructure and planning was one of the six categories of actions Wildfire Today pointed out in April, 2019 that must be taken to reduce the impact of wildfires on communities. That category includes:
Road and driveway width, wide enough for large fire trucks
Turnarounds at the end of roads
Signage, and
Emergency water supply.
The other five categories that need to be considered in fire-prone communities are home spacing/lot size; envelope of the structure itself; home ignition zone; wildland-urban interface; and fire codes.
Officials in Australia have started a process that should be of interest to fire managers and public officials in the United States. They are establishing across the continent common terminology and symbols to indicate the level of threat from an existing wildfire or other emergency and the recommended action that should be taken. Previously there was not complete consistency among the eight states and territories, which at times led to confusion about what the level of danger was and the action that should be taken. This was especially a problem near the borders of the states when a message from across the border may use unfamiliar jargon.
The new Australian Warning System icons, 2020.
The Australian Bushfire Warning System is a national, three level bushfire alert system, “Advice”, “Watch and Act”, and “Emergency Warning”. Australia recognized the inconsistency problem with their 8 states.
But not only do the 50 U.S. states have different systems for describing potential and current wildfire conditions, they also may differ city to city and county to county.
Warnings for evacuations
One of the most stressful times in a person’s life can be when they are forced to evacuate due to a wildfire, flood, or extreme weather event. This is not the time to give them ambiguous instructions, or use jargon many of them have never heard before. LEVEL TWO EVACUATION! What in the hell does that mean? Or, EVACUATION IS AT THE SET LEVEL! Or, WATCH AND ACT!
Recently used evacuation jargon has included:
Mandatory, Order, and Voluntary;
Level 1, 2, and 3 (or, I, II, and III)
Stage 1, 2, and 3
Ready, Set, and Go
And I won’t even get into some that have been used for large structures such as Horizontal, Vertical, Partial, Vertical Phased, or Progressive Horizontal.
After reflecting on the massive evacuations required by wildfires in 2017 and 2018, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services recommended standard evacuation terminology and phrases for cities and counties to use during an emergency within the state, based in part on a White Paper written for the office in 2019.
Evacuation Order: Immediate threat to life. This is a lawful order to leave now. The area is lawfully closed to public access.
Evacuation Warning: Potential threat to life and/or property. Those who require additional time to evacuate, and those with pets and livestock should leave now.
Shelter in Place: Go indoors. Shut and lock doors and windows. Prepare to self-sustain until further notice and/or contacted by emergency personnel for additional direction.
Evacuation Order(s) Lifted: The formal announcement of lifting evacuations in an area currently under evacuation.
Hard Closure: Closed to all traffic except Fire and Law Enforcement.
Soft Closure: Closed to all traffic except Fire, Law Enforcement and critical Incident resources (i.e. Utility, Caltrans, City/County Roads etc. or those needed to repair or restore infrastructure).
Resident Only Closure: Soft closure with the additional allowance of residents and local government agencies assisting with response and recovery.
In most U.S. locations fire departments do not have the authority to issue evacuation orders. It is generally stipulated they have the expertise to know when and where it should take place but they make that recommendation to law enforcement who actually issue the order to the public, and enforce it when necessary.
Notifying citizens that they are in the path of a fire has proven to be extremely difficult, subject to technical problems and human error. Many jurisdictions have purchased reverse 911 systems that can make phone calls or send texts to warn residents in a specific area of a threat. In some cases each person has to opt-in, and if you’re a visitor you may not be notified. There are a few apps available for mobile phones, some of which are not operated by government agencies and may not be 100 percent reliable for immediate notification.
Wildfire apps and services
The U.S. Forest Service has had Wildfires Near Me in development since 2016, and it is still in beta. It’s not an app, but you can sign up online, give them an address you’re interested in, and specify to be notified by email or text message of wildfires within your desired distance from that address. It does not issue emergency notifications such as evacuation orders, but you might receive a notice each time an updated Incident Status Summary form, (ICS-209) has been entered in the NIFC system, once or twice a day, about fires in that location. Then you can go to InciWeb to get more details.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection has a “web-based app” but it can’t be installed from the Android, Google, or Apple app stores. It can provide some information about fires managed by CAL FIRE, but it generally has no information about US Forest Service responsibility fires or those of local jurisdiction. Colorado also has an app, Colorado Wildfire Watch App which is designed to only be available to people in the state.
Wireless Emergency Alerts
A system in the United States, Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), is another possibility and can be activated by state and local public safety officials, the National Weather Service (NWS), the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (think Amber Alert), and the president of the United States. Beginning in 2019 the accuracy of the geotargeting for WEA became more precise, requiring providers to deliver the alerts to the area specified by the alert originator with no more than a 1/10 of a mile overshoot. The system uses location processing in the mobile phone itself. The handset receives the alert including the polygon of the alert area, then the phone uses its GPS-assisted location to determine whether it is inside or outside the polygon. Even if you’re far from home, but in the threat area, you should receive the alert.
On August 15, 2020 the NWS used WEA to send out the first ever real time warning about a fire tornado on the Loyalton Fire about 12 miles northwest of Reno, Nevada.
“Our forecasters were tracking the plume on radar and were seeing rotation signatures comparable to that of a tornado. Factoring in public and firefighter safety, they issued a rare tornado warning associated with a large fire,” said NWS Reno Meteorologist and Public Information Officer Chris Smallcomb. Upon inspection, NWS found evidence of three different tornado paths with the largest being a low-grade EF-2. Said Smallcomb, “NWS Reno’s fire tornado warning has resulted in a robust policy conversation within the NWS and partner agencies about the utility of such warnings in a wildland fire situation, since it had never been done before!”
Between January 1 and September 14, 2020, alerting authorities sent 1,750 WEAs. The topics were for missing children AMBER alerts, severe weather, flash floods, and COVID-19 related for mask wearing, shelter-in-place notices, social distancing, and testing facility locations.
Do we need a national fire warning app specifically for wildfires?
Australia has considered the development of a national all-hazard warning app to address the limitations of the bushfire warning apps during the 2019-2020 bushfire season. Some state or local jurisdictions in Australia have apps that can push notifications and have Watch Zone functionalities.
Australia’s Royal Commission report included this about the potential for a national bushfire warning app:
Data from state and territory governments lacks consistency and this presents a challenge to developing a national warning app. Availability of nationally consistent data is a key enabler for the development of a national app by the Australian government, or a commercial provider.
Camp Fire as seen from NASA Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8 at 10:45 PST November 8, 2018. The photo, enhanced with infrared imagery, was taken about 4 hours and 15 minutes after the fire started.
In the last three years examples of wildfires in North America that have caused massive evacuations, fatalities, and structures destroyed include:
City officials in Paradise had an evacuation plan in place and had even conducted a drill, but the plan assumed a specific fire situation that would allow time for sections of the city to evacuate, one area at at time. The Camp Fire, driven by strong winds, hit the community so quickly that the entire city had to evacuate immediately, causing the limited and low volume evacuation routes to become clogged. A situation like that with very little advance notice would overwhelm many cities, especially if the availability and capacity of routes can’t come close to handling the traffic.
Managers can use computer models to predict the spread of fires, and there are also models that can estimate how much time it would take to evacuate people in vehicles or on foot. But these models have not been integrated to determine how changes in fire behavior would affect evacuation capability and plans.
A linked fire behavior and evacuation model could have variable inputs for weather, fuels, and topography as well as an assortment of evacuation alternatives that could inform planners about existing and proposed designs.
An integrated modeling system or simulator for dynamic fire vulnerability mapping does not exist, but researchers have laid out specifications and a framework for building one. Their recommendations are detailed in a paper published in Safety Science titled, “An open physics framework for modelling wildland-urban interface fire evacuations.”
Illustration from the researchers. Click to enlarge.
Below is the abstract from their paper:
“Fire evacuations at wildland-urban interfaces (WUI) pose a serious challenge to the emergency services, and are a global issue affecting thousands of communities around the world. This paper presents a multi-physics framework for the simulation of evacuation in WUI wildfire incidents, including three main modelling layers: wildfire, pedestrians, and traffic. Currently, these layers have been mostly modelled in isolation and there is no comprehensive model which accounts for their integration. The key features needed for system integration are identified, namely: consistent level of refinement of each layer (i.e. spatial and temporal scales) and their application (e.g. evacuation planning or emergency response), and complete data exchange. Timelines of WUI fire events are analysed using an approach similar to building fire engineering (available vs. required safe egress times for WUI fires, i.e. WASET/WRSET). The proposed framework allows for a paradigm shift from current wildfire risk assessment and mapping tools towards dynamic fire vulnerability mapping. This is the assessment of spatial and temporal vulnerabilities based on the wildfire threat evolution along with variables related to the infrastructure, population and network characteristics. This framework allows for the integration of the three main modelling layers affecting WUI fire evacuation and aims at improving the safety of WUI communities by minimising the consequences of wildfire evacuations.”
Authors of the paper: Enrico Ronchi, Steven M.V. Gwynne, Guillermo Rein, Paolo Intini, and Rahul Wadhwani.
