Map showing the approximate location of the Lake Fire in southern California, at 5:30 p.m. PDT August 12, 2020.
A very rapidly spreading fire broke out Wednesday afternoon in the Angeles National Forest about 19 miles west of Lancaster, California. When units first arrived the fire was about 100 acres burning on both sides of Lake Hughes Road, spreading to the east and northeast.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Lake Fire, including the most recent, click here.)
At 5:50 p.m. firefighters reported it was generating spot fires one mile ahead and had already grown to about 7,000 acres; at 7:05 p.m. the estimate increased to about 10,000.
At 6 p.m. the Incident Commander ordered additional strike teams of Type 1 fire engines for structure protection to bring the total up to 20. With five engines per strike team, that is 100 engines. Evacuations are in effect.
At 7:05 p.m. the fire had crossed Pine Canyon Road and was well established on the east side.
Lake Fire from Loop, at 6-49 p.m. PDT August 12, 2020
Aircraft over the Lake Fire at 7:26 p.m. PDT August 12, 2020. The green line is the track of the King Air in the photo, probably serving as a lead plane. FlightRadar24
Ms. Veseth was killed by a falling tree while working on a fire in Idaho
Anne Veseth. USFS photo.
Eight years ago today, in 2012, Anne Veseth was killed while working on the Steep Corner Fire 56 miles northeast of Orofino, Idaho. The fire was on private property and was being managed by the Clearwater‐Potlatch Timber Protective Association (CPTPA). Ms. Veseth, in her second season working as a firefighter for the U.S. Forest Service, was killed when she was struck by a falling 150-foot fire-weakened green cedar tree. The tree fell on its own and was 13 inches in diameter where it struck her.
Map of the Grizzly Creek Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 9:53 p.m. MDT August 13, 2020. The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours before.
The Grizzly Creek Fire east of Glenwood Springs more than doubled in size Thursday, running over 4 miles northeast on the north side of Interstate 70, burning across Hanging Lake. There was also another large slop-over south across the Interstate, expanding 2.5 miles to the southeast.
For locals, Hanging Lake is a very beautiful and special landmark. Fire officials said the immediate area around it was not severely burned.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Grizzly Creek Fire, including the most recent, click here.
A mapping flight Thursday night found that the fire grew by 7,190 acres, to bring the total to 13,441 acres.
Denver7 News reported at 1 p.m. that all non-emergency flights at the Glenwood Springs Airport were suspended until further notice so it could be used for fire operations.
Large round Heliwells and smaller folding tanks are being set up at the small No Name exit off Interstate 70 to serve as dipping points for helicopters battling the fire.
The small I-70 exit called No Name is almost a functioning helo dipping port with large containers to mix fire retardant. Roadway will continue to be closed as drops on the #GrizzlyCreekFire continue. pic.twitter.com/QdOAz13xKu
The Grizzly Fire looking East from Glenwood Caverns Adventure Park at 1 p.m. August 13, 2020. IMT photo.
From the Incident Management Team at about 11:30 a.m. MDT August 13, 2020:
“Today’s weather and fire behavior is expected to be similar to Wednesday’s with active fire behavior and Red Flag Warning conditions due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. On Wednesday afternoon, the fire reached the bottom of the No Name drainage, which will be a focus of firefighters today. Hotshot crews are working to contain spot fires along the ridge south of No Name drainage, and establish an anchor point and firelines. Residents in north Glenwood Springs should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions that may lead to pre-evacuation notices. Evacuation information is posted on the Garfield County website at www.Garfield-county.com.
“Firefighters continue to do structure protection in several locations around the fire including the Shoshone Power Plant, Lookout Mountain, and the No Name subdivision. The fire is also fairly active on the east side, near Deadman’s Gulch, where crews are working to keep fire from spotting across I-70 in additional locations. Heavy equipment is working in more accessible areas. Helicopters and airtankers are supporting the efforts of engines and ground crews.
“Great Basin Type 1 Team, with Incident Commander Marty Adell, assumed command of the Grizzly Creek Fire at 6 a.m. today. Daily operations video updates will be posted on the Grizzly Creek Fire facebook page. Maps and other information will also be posted on inciweb at https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6942/. The team will host a virtual FaceBook live community meeting at 6 p.m. Friday, August 14, 2020.”
August 13, 2020 | 8:28 a.m. MDT
Map of the Grizzly Creek Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 12:47 a.m. MDT August 13, 2020. The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours before.
The Grizzly Creek Fire east of Glenwood Springs, Colorado grew substantially to the northeast Wednesday by 1.7 miles, adding another 2,548 acres to bring the total up to 6,250 acres.
3-D Map of the Grizzly Creek Fire, looking northeast, at 12:47 a.m. MDT August 13, 2020.
(We will add more information about the fire later on Thursday.)
August 12, 2020 | 6:46 p.m. MDT
Map of the Grizzly Creek Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 1:04 a.m. MDT August 12. The white line was the approximate perimeter about 24 hours before. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 1:42 p.m. MDT August 12, 2020.
A satellite overflight at 1:42 p.m. Wednesday determined that the Grizzly Creek Fire two miles east of Glenwood Springs, Colorado had spread to the northeast during the previous 12 hours. Most of the additional acreage was north of Interstate 70. The heat detected by the satellite, including the new growth, is indicated by the red dots on the map above.
The wind Wednesday afternoon measured by a weather station near the tunnel at No Name west of the fire was more moderate than in recent days. It was primarily from the west at three to six mph and the relative humidity bottomed-out at 15 percent. If this was representative of the weather on most of the fire it explains why there was little heat detected on the west side of the fire nearest Glenwood Springs.
August 12, 2020 | 7:32 a.m. MDT
3-D map of the Grizzly Creek Fire at 1:04 a.m. MDT August 12. Looking northeast.
Tuesday afternoon the Grizzly Creek fire was extremely active, spreading in almost all directions. It moved farther north deeper into the White River National Forest and spotted south across the Interstate and the Colorado River where it is now well established. The initial crossing of the river occurred on the southeast side of the fire northeast of Lookout Mountain.
(To see all articles about the Grizzly Creek Fire, including the most recent, click here.)
At 1:04 a.m. Wednesday the fire was mapped by a U.S. Forest Service using a Beechcraft 200 Super King Air. They determined that the fire had burned 3,702 acres and during the previous 24 hours ran one mile north, one mile northeast, and almost two miles across the river to the southeast. The growth to the west was not as rapid as the other sides of the fire and it was still about two miles from Glenwood Springs. At that time it was about 0.75 mile away from the community of No Name at Interstate 70 and had not crossed No Name Creek.
Again, most of the firefighting Tuesday was done from the air, since on the steep slopes and with the extreme fire behavior there was little firefighters on the ground could do to stop the spread.
Evacuations are in effect for Lookout Mountain, Coulter Creek, and the community of No Name.
Firefighters are conducting preparation work in the evacuated communities and Shone Power Plant, evaluating structures and helping create defensible space where practical.
Map of the Grizzly Creek Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 1:04 a.m. MDT August 12. The white line was the approximate perimeter about 24 hours before.Grizzly Fire August 11, 2020. Photo by Garfield County Sheriffs Office.
Lolo Peak Fire at 8:14 p.m. MDT August 19, 2017 as seen from the Missoula area. Photo by Jim Loach.
On March 19, 2020 I took an early look at the topic of how we were going to fight fires during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is time for another look.
A very interesting study released August 1 used modeling to show how COVID-19 could spread through firefighters assigned to large wildfires. Using actual firefighter mobilization data for three different sized fires in 2017 they estimated that on an incident similar in size and duration to the Lolo Peak Fire that burned 53,000 acres south of Missoula, Montana, approximately one to 13 fire personnel could be killed by the COVID-19 virus.
The U.S. Forest deserves praise for funding this very important study that applies science to an issue that literally can be life or death for firefighters. It is based on a model, and as they say, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
It really illustrates a risk that is added to what was already one of the more dangerous professions, fighting wildfires.
Another facet to consider in addition to the potential fatalities is, how many will be infected? Many will be non-symptomatic and could unknowingly spread the virus to their colleagues, friends, children, spouse, parents, and grandparents unless they are very careful about their interactions.
Frequent testing with rapid results is imperative to reduce the risk of our firefighters being killed by a virus during their daily work activities or while assigned to a fire.
Fatalities are the worst possible outcome of course, but if one to thirteen could die on a fire like the Lolo Peak Fire under COVID-19 conditions, how many will be hospitalized, spend weeks on a ventilator, or suffer long-term debilitating symptoms? Will some firefighters mostly recover but incur permanent damage to their lungs, heart, or other organs, ending their career? Who will pay the medical bills? With long term physical problems, will they qualify for disability benefits?
Wildland firefighters are tactical athletes. College football program administrators in the Power 5 conference are concerned about a heart condition exhibited by some of their athletes which may be linked to COVID, but it is too soon to say for sure.
Myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle, has been found in at least five Big Ten Conference athletes and among several other athletes in other conferences, according to two sources with knowledge of athletes’ medical care… Left undiagnosed and untreated, it can cause heart damage and sudden cardiac arrest, which can be fatal.
And then there are the “long haulers”. From the Cleveland Clinic:
Approximately 80% of those with COVID-19 end up having a mild response and most of those cases resolve in about two weeks. For people who have a severe response to the virus, it can take between three and six weeks to recover.
But now, there is growing concern over a separate group who don’t seem to fall into either of those categories. A number of people are now reporting lingering symptoms of the illness for one, two or even three months. This new group is mixed with those who experienced both mild and severe cases. As health experts step in to try to manage these patients and learn more, many are referring to this group as coronavirus “long-haulers” or “long-termers.”
There is much still unknown about this novel virus.
Wildland firefighters are defending and protecting our homeland, a fact our government, including our Senators and Congressmen, need to recognize. These men and women on the front lines must be equipped with hardware and aircraft to match the quality supplied to our military. They all need to be working under Firefighter job descriptions (not forestry technicians), employed year-round, and must be paid a living wage. They also need access to useful and effective mental health counseling and support to try to stem the rising tide of firefighter suicides.
Lolo Peak Fire at 6:25 p.m. MDT August 19, 2017 as seen from the Missoula area. Photo by Dick Mangan.
Researchers developed a COVID-19 epidemic model to highlight the risks posed by the disease during wildland fire incidents. A paper published August 1, 2020 details how they started with actual mobilization data from the Resource Ordering and Status System (ROSS) for three 2017 wildfires that had different characteristics — the Highline Fire, which burned for much of the summer but the personnel peaked early in the effort; the Lolo Peak Fire, which spanned July through September and had a relatively symmetric mobilization and demobilization phase; and the Tank Hollow Fire, which was shorter than the other two, and had fewer personnel throughout the incident.
Figure 1. Total personnel assigned and expected to be at the fire camp (e.g., non-aerial resources) for three large incidents over time; data are from the Resource Ordering and Status System. From the study.
The variables that were modeled included the number of infected persons arriving at a fire, the rate of secondary infections caused by an infected person, infection fatality rate, and the number of people assigned to the fire each day.
There are also many other variables that are difficult or impossible to account for, such as social distancing at the incident, protocols followed by personnel in the weeks before the assignment, how much time they spend at fire camp, mode of travel to and during the incident, wearing of masks, testing before and during the incident, working remotely, and others.
Below is an excerpt from the study:
“Models are, by definition, an abstraction of reality and are subject to the accuracy of the parameters. Wildfires and the COVID-19 pandemic are each complex dynamic phenomenon, and the combination of the two produces great uncertainty. Therefore, we stress the limits of our model and highlight the qualitative results of the analysis rather than the estimated numbers.
“In this study, we focused on two sources of case growth on an incident. The first is the introduction of infection by personnel arriving on an incident. As the fire grows and the incident becomes more complex, resource orders will be filled by available personnel, some of whom may come from other counties or states. Given the variation in the COVID-19 prevalence around the country at any given point in time, the firefighters from different areas will introduce variable risk to the camp. While current policies require or request symptomatic individuals to report their conditions and inform supervisors, evidence suggests that many infected people may experience very mild symptoms. These asymptomatic individuals may remain infectious for weeks, perhaps posing the greatest risk of infection through a camp. The combination of exposure risk posed by the high turnover of personnel coming from a large number of places in concert with the exposure risk due to non-quarantined infectious individuals highlights the potential merits of developing testing strategies for early identification, which could include testing asymptomatic individuals without known or suspected exposure. The utility of such testing strategies is conditioned by the availability, timeliness, and reliability of viral tests, and the optimal testing strategy design could be the subject of future research.
“The second source of case growth on an incident that we examined was the spread among personnel while assigned to the fire. In the event that personnel arrive at an incident exposed or infected, their level of interaction with others will determine the rate of transmission within the camp. The rate of transmission will depend on the level of interaction between the personnel at the incident and the nature of those interactions. Under normal circumstances, personnel may gather in large groups, for example, for briefings or meals. These interactions are similar to potentially infectious interactions in the general public that public health agencies have deemed ill-advised. Some of these interactions could be made less risky using current social distancing and mitigation recommendations; for example, masks appear to provide a barrier to the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Recognizing that a range of mitigations is already being planned or put into place by incident management personnel, these analyses provide a proxy for a business-as-usual baseline as a point of comparison.
“We studied two types of interventions corresponding to the two types of source growth identified above: the screening of personnel arriving at the incident to address the case growth by the entry of the virus and the spread from non-quarantined infectious individuals, and social distancing measures within the fire camp to address the case growth from the spread among individuals in the camp. While both interventions mitigate transmission and lead to fewer cases, screening measures are relatively more effective on shorter incidents with a frequent resource turn over. In contrast, social distancing measures are relatively more effective on prolonged campaigns where most of the cases are due to transmission within the community.”
Figure 4. Total number of infected individuals over the duration of each incident under the low (0.1%), medium (1%), and high (5%) entry rates of infected individuals. Note that the vertical axis is log scaled. All simulations assume R0 of 2.68. From the study.
The researchers found that a large, long-duration fire with a hundreds of personnel is likely to have more infected individuals and fatalities than shorter-duration incidents with fewer individuals. Under COVID-19 conditions, a fire like the 2017 Lolo Peak Fire south of Missoula could have, according to their modeling, from less than 1 or up to 13 fatalities from the disease.
Figure 3. Cumulative deaths over time for the baseline scenario with variable infection fatality rates. Note that the vertical axis is not log scaled for this figure. From the study.
The study was conducted by Matthew P. Thompson, Jude Bayham, and Erin Belval. It was supported by Colorado State University and the U.S. Forest Service. (Download the study; large 1.9 Mb file.)
Heavy duty pyrocumulus forming over the Grizzly Creek Fire, August 11, 2020. By Kyle Nelson.
Tuesday afternoon the Grizzly Creek fire was extremely active, spreading in almost all directions. It moved farther north deeper into the White River National Forest, spread east on the north side of Interstate 70, and spotted south across the Interstate and the Colorado River where it is now well established. The initial crossing of the river occurred on the southeast side of the fire northeast of Lookout Mountain.
(To see all articles about the Grizzly Creek Fire, including the most recent, click here.)
Most of the firefighting Tuesday was done from the air, since on the steep slopes and with the extreme fire behavior there was little firefighters on the ground could do to stop the spread.
Evacuations are in effect for Lookout Mountain, Coulter Creek, and the community of No Name.
Firefighters are conducting preparation work in the evacuated communities and Shone Power Plant, evaluating structures and helping create defensible space where practical.
Interstate 70 remains closed between Glenwood Springs and Gypsum.
UPDATED August 11, 2020 | 2:03 p.m. MDT
Map of the Grizzly Creek Fire at 12:30 p.m. MDT August 11, 2020.
At about 1 p.m. Tuesday the Garfield Sheriff’s Office ordered an evacuation of the No Name community which is between the Grizzly Creek Fire and Glenwood Springs, Colorado. The Glenwood Springs Community Center is the relocation point.
Fire officials said at 1:45 p.m Tuesday the fire has burned 1,832 acres, an increase of about 500 acres from a previous estimate.
Updated August 11, 2020 | 8:30 a.m. MDT
Map showing the approximate location of the Grizzly Creek Fire 2 miles east of Glenwood Springs, Colorado looking northeast at 2:36 am MDT August 11, 2020. Based on heat detected by a satellite.
At 9 p.m. MDT Monday fire officials estimated the Grizzly Creek Fire two air miles east of Glenwood Springs had burned about 1,300 acres.
When the fire was first reported in the Interstate 70 median at 1:29 p.m. Monday it was attacked along the highway by firefighters on the ground and from the air by two Very Large Air Tanker (DC-10s), five large air tankers, five helicopters, and two Single Engine Air Tankers. Most of the firefighting effort Monday afternoon took place from the air due to the rugged terrain and extreme fire behavior. The elevation on the fire ranges from 5,800′ on the Interstate to 8,500′ on the ridges.
Interstate 70 was closed Monday night in both directions and there is no estimate when it will open.
Six hand crews have been dispatched to the Grizzly Creek fire: Alpine Hotshots from Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado, Blue Ridge Hotshots from the Coconino National Forest in Arizona, three 20-person Type 2 crews from Oregon, and one wildland fire module from California.
Updated August 10, 2020 | 10:44 p.m. MDT
Grizzly Creek Fire, August 10, 2020. IMT photo.
Two Incident Management Teams have been ordered for the Grizzly Creek Fire on Interstate 70 two miles east of Glenwood Springs, Colorado. The Rocky Mountain Area Type 2 Blue Team with Incident Commander Michael Haydon will be the first of the two to assume command. A higher qualified Type 1 Rocky Basin Team led by Incident Commander Marty Adell has also been ordered to at some point take over from the Type 2 team. The Type 1 team will in-brief August 12 at 8 a.m. in Gypsum, Colorado. After a briefing, teams usually require a period of transition with the previous organization before they actually assume command.
It is not common to order both types of teams at the same time. Usually there is a progression from one to the other if a fire increases in size and complexity. This most likely indicates that the extreme fire behavior seen on the Grizzly Creek Fire and perhaps its proximity to structures led fire managers to believe it has the potential to become a very significant, complex incident.
The Colorado Department of Transportation announced that Interstate 70 will remain closed through Monday night.
When the fire started Monday afternoon a nearby weather station recorded a high temperature of 93 degrees, single-digit relative humidity, and 5 to 16 mph winds out of the southwest gusting at 20 to 30 mph — conditions very conducive to rapid fire spread.
Grizzly Creek Fire, August 10, 2020. IMT photo.
A spot weather forecast for the fire predicts for Monday night a maximum humidity of 37 to 42 percent and west winds 5 to 10 mph through 9 p.m., then becoming downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph overnight. For Tuesday, 90 degrees, 5 to 10 percent humidity, and downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph winds through mid-morning shifting to come out of the west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph in the afternoon.
August 10, 2020 | 6:52 p.m. MDT
Map showing heat detected on the Grizzly Creek Fire by a satellite at 2:18 p.m. MDT August 10, 2020. The locations are approximate.
A new wildfire in Colorado has forced the closure of Interstate 70. The Grizzly Creek Fire was reported in the early afternoon Monday. At 3 p.m. firefighting aircraft either on scene or en route included two Very Large Air Tanker (DC-10s), five large air tankers, five helicopters, and two Single Engine Air Tankers.
Grizzly Creek Fire near Glenwood Springs, CO at 1:38 p.m. August 10, by Nathan Krause with Whitewater Rafting.
At 5 p.m. MDT the Rocky Mountain Coordination Centers said it had burned approximately 1,400 acres.
Some of the air tankers were reloading with retardant at a temporary portable air tanker base at the Colorado Springs Airport. A permanent base is slated for development at the airport which should be in service in 2021.
We will update this article as more information becomes available.
