It will remain high in southern California through December
The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for November through February. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If NIFC’s analysis is correct the only area with above average potential for wildfires during the four-month period is California in November and December. According to the prediction most of the forested or brush-covered lands in the state will have enhanced potential in November. That area will shrink in December to just the southern two-thirds of California.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
From NIFC:
“Entering the outlook period, most states will remain out of fire season in November. Exceptions to this will continue to be California, Colorado, and possibly Texas where drier than average conditions will continue. Expect periodic increases in fire potential and activity during wind events that not only bring strong winds but also drier air that lowers humidity levels to critical levels. The occurrence of such events should begin to diminish in frequency later in the month as the seasonal transition begins to end. Medium range data suggests that conditions across the Southeast will continue to show improvement as the frequency of moisture events continues to increase.”
Screenshot from “Living with wildfire”. Photo by Kari Greer.
Idaho Public Television has produced a 27-minute film that examines the science of living with wildfire.
Here is the official description:
Wildfires have been a way of life in Idaho for millennia. But, recently they’ve become more severe. Fire seasons are starting sooner, fires are burning hotter and they’re lasting longer. That’s caught the attention of fire and climate experts from the University of Idaho. They warn that a warming climate is adding fuel to an already dangerous problem.
It explores many of the issues associated with inevitable fire, and features excellent videography, plus still images taken by and interviews with someone well known to those who frequent the pages of Wildfire Today, photographer Kari Greer.
On October 14 I wrote about criticism and critiques, exploring how in the wildland fire world they can provide a very valuable learning experience or there can be cascading negative repercussions. The outcome depends on the venue in which it is presented as well as the social maturity, motivation, knowledge, and diplomacy of the person expressing their opinion.
When I heard about Former President Barack Obama speaking during a panel discussion on October 29 about the “call out culture”, I thought back to those two articles. Mr. Obama may have been referring to criticism related to social issues or politics, but the concept can also apply to discussions about firefighting and forest management — even to issues as meaningless as aggressively calling someone out for not using the most current version of firefighting jargon approved by the U.S. Forest Service, which I saw happen recently (but thankfully not on Wildfire Today).
Below is a transcript of portions of Mr. Obama’s discussion, and after that, a 2-minute video clip from the event:
“This idea of purity and you’re never compromised and you’re always politically woke and all that stuff — you should get over that quickly.
“The world is messy. There are ambiguities. People who do really good stuff have flaws. People who you are fighting may love their kids and, you know, share certain things with you.
“I do get a sense sometimes now among certain young people, and this is accelerated by social media, there is this sense sometimes of, the way of me making change is to be as judgmental as possible about other people and that’s enough.
“Like if I tweet or hashtag about how you didn’t do something right, or used the wrong verb, then I can sit back and feel pretty good about myself because: ‘Man, did you see how woke I was? I called you out.’
“That’s not activism. That’s not bringing about change. If all you’re doing is casting stones, you are probably not going to get that far.”
The fire started 13 minutes after SCE re-energized power lines near the point of origin
Map of the Maria Fire. All evacuations have been lifted. The pink line and green lines are where evacuations have been lifted. Source: Ventura County at 6:20 a.m. PDT Nov. 2, 2019.
UPDATED at 6:35 p.m. PDT November 2, 2019
The Ventura County Fire Department announced at 2:39 p.m. Saturday that all evacuation orders on the Maria Fire have been lifted.
More accurate mapping determined that the fire has burned 9,412 acres, which is a decrease from the 10,720-acre figure released earlier.
The number of structures burned has remained at three. That has not been broken down as to the type, such as outbuildings, homes, or commercial structures.
Saturday morning there were still 1,200 personnel assigned to the fire.
Crews from many different agencies are working hard to make areas safe for the public to return to. Fire weakens infrastructure and creates hazards that need to be addressed. Check out this video for more. pic.twitter.com/A2VdXvB9TF
We spotted the fire turning crosswind after departing SZP, this is at 6:16:29 pm, we texted people on the ground to call it in, as well as calling it in to PT Mugu approach over the radio. pic.twitter.com/wuRA56Dy5D
Friday afternoon the Maria Fire east of Ventura, California grew by another 2,000 acres on the west and north sides. The Ventura County Fire Department said a total of 10,720 acres have burned.
As the fire moved north into the Santa Clara river bottom on Friday live views from cameras on helicopters showed several structures burning, some of which appeared to be affiliated with ranching or farming. Horses freed by ranch hands were running from the fire.
The UPI reports that the fire, which started near mountaintop communication sites, may have been related to re-energized power lines.
Southern California Edison said that though it’s not sure what caused the Maria Fire, the company did re-energize its power lines in the vicinity about 13 minutes before it sparked. The company had previously cut off power to the area amid strong winds.
(Scroll down to see a tweet that has a photo of the fire shortly after it started.)
SCE power lines caused the huge fire across the valley from the Maria Fire, the Thomas Fire that in December, 2017 blackened 230,500 acres and destroyed 1,063 structures (see the map below). Two people were killed directly by the Thomas fire, one firefighter and a civilian, and 21 were killed later by flooding and mud flows off the vegetation-free mountains. Over 8,500 firefighters were mobilized to fight it, which is the largest mobilization of firefighters for combating any wildfire in California history. The cost of suppressing the fire was over $200 million.
Drones over the fire Friday at 3:19 a.m. and 4:05 a.m. shut down the water dropping activities of two night-flying helicopters, the LA Times reported. According to @VCscanner, Air Attack 51 reported one of the drones at about 3,000 feet, resulting in all firefighting aircraft having to shut down.
The Red Flag Warning has been extended through 6 p.m. Saturday due to very dry air with humidity levels from 2 to 8 percent, recovering only to 8 to 18 percent overnight. Daytime highs on Saturday and Sunday in the fire area are expected to be between 77 and 85 degrees. Northeast winds will persist through Saturday, with the Ventura County Mountains and Valleys experiencing 10-25 mph winds and gusts of 25-35 mph. Weaker but still present offshore winds will be present Saturday night through Sunday.
Red Flag Warnings November 2, 2019 include the Maria Fire area. NWS
UPDATED at 12:15 p.m. PDT Nov. 1, 2019
The wind on the north side of the Maria Fire has shifted. Instead of coming from the northeast it is now from the east at 10 mph gusting to 20, which is pushing the fire toward the river bottom south of Santa Paula. Additional firefighting resources are being dispatched to deal with the increased threat to structures.
Video from television helicopters has showed structures burning.
The Ventura County Fire Department reported at 12:10 p.m. Friday that the fire had burned 8,700 acres.
The red dots represent heat on the Maria Fire detected by a satellite at 2:06 a.m. PDT November 1, 2019. Click to enlarge.
Hot Dry Windy Index for the Santa Clarita area, created October 31, 2019.
The weather in southern California will be dry and breezy on Friday and Saturday but not to the extreme levels seen earlier this week. There are no Red Flag Warnings, but in Santa Clarita where the Tick Fire occurred for example, the forecast calls for 10 to 14 mph northeast winds gusting at 16 to 29 off and on into Friday night. Through Saturday the relative humidity will remain below 10 percent during the day with no recovery at night.
The Hot-Dry-Windy Index will be above the 75th percentile on Friday and Saturday.
Friday morning the chart below was revised to add the red “Critical” area that was not in the version issued Thursday. That is where the Maria Fire started at 6:15 p.m. Thursday east of Ventura, California.
Elevated and Critical Fire Weather for November 1, 2019.Weather forecast for the Santa Clarita area for the 48-hour period beginning at 4 p.m. PDT October 31, 2019.
There are no Red Flag Warnings in the medium-range weather outlook for southern California, but it is supposed to be dry.
Good News: 12Z models do not indicate any significant chances of #SantaAnaWinds next 10-15 days.
Bad News: deterministic GFS and ECMWF dry the next 10-15 days for #SoCal. Even the GFS ensemble only has 2-3 members indicating any light rain.
New wildfires in the greater San Diego area, updated at 6:42 a.m. PDT Oct. 31, 2019.New wildfires in the greater Los Angeles area, updated at 6:42 a.m. PDT Oct. 31, 2019.
Here we will keep a list of the new wildfires as they occur in southern California during the extremely strong northeast wind event. This list will include very brief information about each fire. The locations are shown on the map above.
Hillside Fire
Time of update: 6:55 a.m. Thursday
Location: at Highway 18 near Lupin Lane. San Bernardino/North Park/Wildwood Park. 34.183 latitude, -117.285 longitude
Size: about 200 acres
Status: Active, multiple homes have been destroyed, 500 homes evacuated. Highway 18 is closed between 40th St. in San Bernardino and Highway 138 in Crestline. The area is experiencing 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 60. Evacuation orders are in place.
Map showing the location of the Hillside Fire at 3:12 a.m. PDT Oct. 31, 2019
46 Fire
Time of update: 11:16 p.m. Thursday
Location: 5300 block of 46th Street in Jurupa Valley in Riverside County.
Size: 300 acres at 6:30 a.m. Thursday
Status: Active, evacuations in effect. CAL FIRE reports that three residential structures and two outbuildings are confirmed destroyed.
Copper Fire
Time of update: 6:55 a.m. Thursday
Location: On the U.S./Mexico Border on Otay Mountain near Copper Canyon in southern San Diego County.
Size: CAL FIRE reports that 50 acres have burned on the U.S. side of the border. At Wildfire Today we estimate that approximately 500 acres in Mexico have burned.
Status: At 7:57 a.m. Thursday CAL FIRE reported that the spread on the portion of the fire in the U.S. has been stopped. Firefighters south of the border are engaged as well.
Smoke from the Copper Fire as seen from the Otay camera at 8:36 a.m. PDT Oct. 31, 2019.
Castlewood Fire
Time of update: 7:29 a.m. Thursday
Location: Castlewood Drive and north Gilbert St, Fullerton
Size: About 15 to 20 acres
Status: Firefighters have stopped the spread.
Easy Fire
Time of update: 7:13 a.m. PDT Thursday
Location: Simi Valley south of the 118 freeway, north of Madera Road, west of Acapulco Ave., and west of the 23 freeway.
Size: 1,723 acres (according to Ventura County Fire Department at 6:52 a.m. Thursday)
Status: Some evacuations are still in effect. Two structures have burned. Firefighters have stopped the spread.
Location: on the east side of the 57 freeway where it crosses over Brea Canyon Road three miles south of the 60 freeway.
Size: 16 acres
Status: Firefighters stopped the spread at 16 acres
Yosemite Fire
Time of update: 7:30 a.m. PDT Thursday
Location: In Simi Valley just south of the 118 freeway just east of Yosemite Ave. Near the intersection of Serena St. and Meralda Ave.
Size: estimate, one to two acres
Status: Started at about 1:25 p.m. Wednesday. Burned in the back yards of several homes on both sides of Yosemite Ave. Firefighters stopped the spread. A helicopter had to make a precautionary landing due to a mechanical problem, but there were no injuries.
Whittier Fire
Time of update: 4:52 p.m. PDT October 30, 2019
Location: 555 Durfee Ave South El Monte
Size: 2-3 acres
Status: Reported around 4:30 p.m. Wednesday. The spread was stopped at about 2-3 acres.
Dexter Fire
Time of update: 7:33 a.m. PDT Thursday
Location: Mission Ave at Mt. Rubidoux Dr., Riverside
Size: 30 acres
Status: It was reported at 11:40 a.m. on Wednesday. Evacuations have been lifted. Firefighters have stopped the spread.
