The Elk Fire is 6 miles southeast of Red Feather Lakes
The Elk Fire. CBS Copter 4, October 16, 2019.
12:42 p.m. MDT October 17, 2019
A prescribed fire at a scout ranch escaped control in Colorado on Wednesday forcing residents out of their homes. The Elkhorn Creek Forest Health Initiative and Nature Conservancy Colorado were conducting the “Elkhorn 4 Prescribed Burn” at the Ben Delatour Scout Ranch near Red Feather Lakes south of W. County Road 74e and road 68c.
Thursday morning the Larimer County Sheriff’s office reported that the fire, which was named Elk, had not grown much overnight. The total size of the incident was 622 acres which included 472 acres within the project boundary.
At noon on Thursday mandatory evacuation orders were still in place for Glacier View Gates 7 through 13. One shed has been damaged and 50 homes are threatened.
The Elk Fire is in north-central Colorado 6 miles southeast of Red Feather Lakes and 20 miles northwest of Fort Collins. (see map below)
Map showing heat detected on the Elk Fire by a satellite at 3:30 a.m. Oct. 17, 2019.
In addition to firefighters on the ground the fire was attacked by aircraft including at least one large air tanker (RJ85 Tanker 163) and a single engine air tanker.
The fire is 27 miles southeast of Montrose, Colorado
3-D map (looking northwest) showing heat detected on the Cow Creek Fire by a satellite at 3:36 a.m. MDT Oct. 17, 2019.
UPDATED at 2:11 p.m. MDT October 17, 2019
The Cow Creek Fire is 27 miles southeast of Montrose, Colorado. Here is an update from fire officials on Thursday:
A Type 3 Incident Management Organization has been established in response to the Cow Creek Fire. Crews assigned to this organization will work to suppress the fire using geographical features, roads and trails. An overnight reconnaissance flight established the official acreage at 85 with no containment.
South-southwest winds with gusts up to 25 miles per hour are forecasted for the fire area this afternoon. Due to dry fuel conditions in the fire area there is a high probably of rapid fire spread. Currently predictive models have the spread staying within forest boundaries away from structures and private lands. These forecasted winds will cause heavy smoke throughout the Western Slope.
The Cow Creek Fire is currently in heavy mixed conifer within the Uncompaghre Wilderness of the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison (GMUG) National Forests. Fire crews are utilizing indirect confine and contain strategies in areas with the highest probability of success with public and firefighter safety in mind. An investigation team has been assigned to the incident and is currently working to determine the cause of the fire, which is currently unknown.
The forecast on Thursday is for south winds of 8 to 12 mph increasing to southwest at 10 to 15 with gusts up to 25 after noon. The chance of showers or snow begins to increase late in the afternoon, with isolated showers or thunderstorms through sunset, then increasing to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms overnight. The amount of precipitation could be around 0.05 inch — not enough to put out the fire, but it could slow the spread.
The fire is burning at 10,000 feet with an 11,000 to 12,000-foot ridge to the east. Officially, the strategy they are employing is full suppression.
From a Forest Service update October 16, “Additional resources have been ordered and will be employed where tactics and strategies have high probabilities for success, while minimizing unnecessary exposure to the public and firefighters.”
If they can keep it east of the large north-south drainage west of the fire, and if the weather cooperates, they may be able hang on while “minimizing unnecessary exposure” until a fire season-ending weather event.
The Cow Creek Fire as seen from Colorado’s MultiMission Aircraft. Posted at about 4 p.m. October, 16, 2019.
Authorities are saying the Cow Creek Fire 27 miles southeast of Montrose, Colorado has burned 100 acres.
Strong winds gusting around 35 mph are in the forecast for Thursday night, as well as Saturday and Sunday. If it is not contained by then, it could grow substantially by the first of next week. The strategy is full suppression, rather than manage and herd it around.
2:13 p.m. MDT October 16, 2019
Judging from photos taken by nearby residents, a fire reported 9 miles east of Ridgway, Colorado appears to be spreading quickly since it was reported at about 8 a.m. Wednesday. The Cow Creek Fire is in the Uncompahgre National Forest near the Red Creek-Chimney Rock area 27 miles southeast of Montrose. (see map below)
The person that has been nominated to run the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which includes the National Weather Service, thinks the NWS should reduce or eliminate the weather analysis and forecasting products it makes available to taxpayers. Barry Meyers resigned from his CEO position at Accuweather, a company founded by his brother Joel, in order to improve his chances of being confirmed by the Senate and Congress to run NOAA. The executives at Mr. Meyers’ family business would like to continue receiving weather data at no charge that NOAA and the NWS collect from weather stations and a constellation of satellites. They would then sell it back to taxpayers and private companies with little or no competition from the NWS.
Mr. Meyers was first nominated to head NOAA in October, 2017. He was approved by the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee but his appointment has not been voted on by the full Senate. If finally confirmed he would be only the second head of NOAA that served without having a science degree.
Of the three elements that affect wildland fire behavior — weather, fuels, and topography — weather is the one that changes by the minute, hour, and day and is the most difficult to analyze and predict. Firefighters can see the vegetation and topography in front of them, but they can’t stand on a hill and predict with accuracy humidity, wind speed and direction for the next 72 hours.
It remains to be seen how privatizing weather forecasting would affect wildland fire management. Which company, if any, would issue Red Flag Warnings for the United States? The Weather Channel, Accuweather, or WeatherUnderground? Would Incident Meteorologists that are deployed to a fire with an Incident Management Team be employees of one of those companies?
The video below from “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” explores the concept of a businessman with conflicts of interest taking over NOAA and the NWS. Mr. Oliver briefly expresses his opinion about a politician, but the video is predominately about the concept of a former CEO of a weather company running NOAA. Warning: it contains crude language.
This is not the first time that privatization of weather forecasting, Accuweather, and one of the Myers brothers have been mentioned in the same conversation. Check out an article by Kelly Anderson in Wildland Firefighter in 1998.
Rapid spread of the fire Sunday forced fire crews to escape to a safety zone
3-D map of the Decker Fire at 7:02 p.m. MDT Oct. 13, 2019. The red shaded areas represent intense heat. Looking southwest. Click to enlarge.
UPDATED at 10:25 p.m. MDT Oct. 14, 2019
The Decker Fire has ordered nine more 20-person hand crews. They will be Type 2 IA (Initial Attack) crews coming all the way from Oregon.
The weather near Salida is not expected to be extreme through Thursday; the winds will be from the west or southwest at less than 11 to 14 mph but the humidity will be very low — single digits during the day and in the 30s at night. But beginning Friday and through the weekend the wind will increase to the mid-teens with gusts in the 30s. There is a chance of rain or snow on Sunday.
Those crews might be handy to have around on Friday and Saturday, and also to get more line construction and mopup done before the winds arrive.
4:02 p.m. MDT Oct. 14, 2019
The Decker Fire three miles south of Salida, Colorado continues to grow and Sunday put firefighters in a precarious situation. After the fire crossed fire lines on both the east and west sides following three days of Red Flag Warnings firefighters on the northeast side working to stop the spread had to use escape routes to take refuge in safety zones. After taking accountability to ensure all were safe, they reengaged after the fire activity decreased.
The 8,118-acre lightning-caused fire has been burning for about five weeks and is being “managed” or herded around, rather than fully suppressed.
For evacuation information contact the Chaffee County Sheriff’s Office, 719-539-2596, or Fremont County Emergency Management, 719-276-7416, 719-276-7418, or visit the Chaffee County Sheriff or Fremont County Sheriff Facebook pages and websites.
Resources assigned to the fire include: 18 hand crews, 27 fire engines, 4 dozers, 8 water tenders, and 7 helicopters for a total of 707 personnel.
Map of the Decker Fire at 7:02 p.m. MDT Oct. 13, 2019. The red shaded areas represent intense heat.
When a wildland fire incident has a controversial outcome it will often be pointed out by those who are knowledgeable on the subject, or by someone who is directly or indirectly affected.
I understand how venting can be cathartic. As long as it is done in private, no problem. If it is done in public there can be cascading repercussions, and therefore more responsibility. At worst, it can be self-serving, cruel, damaging, and counterproductive. But if everything said is completely accurate, and the result can benefit mankind, then the greater good might be served in many situations. At Wildfire Today, I know that sunlight can be the best disinfectant. Helping shine a little light on lessons learned by firefighters through information about reports being released or critique from various sources, might reduce the chances of someone else learning a lesson the hard way — with unpleasant consequences.
Years ago in a comment section on Wildfire Today someone made statements about another person. It was slanderous, not true, and damaged the reputation of a very honorable and skilled professional. Since then I have strived harder to have factual information on the web site. There are times when that objective is not met, but it does not stop me from trying.
Even the best intentioned formal investigations of incidents may occasionally miss the mark of being accurate. Other times the report an investigation team releases might purposefully deceive, or lie by omission. I certainly do not have all the answers, not by a long shot. In cases like these, and others, attention is needed by the hive mind of the wildland fire community.
Critique not meshing with accuracy can keep me up at night.
