The blaze in Northern California is nearly contained
Aerial photo, off Herb Lane near Skyway in Paradise. From the Butte County drone mapping project.
Large quantities of rain that began Wednesday are helping firefighters contain the Camp Fire that devastated most of Paradise and the adjacent Concow community in Northern California. Rainfall in the last 72 hours in the county, Butte County, varied from 0.94″ to 7.10″.
To see all of the articles on Wildfire Today about the Camp Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.
CAL FIRE reports that the only uncontained section of the fire is in steep, rugged terrain that is unsafe for firefighters to access due to the heavy rains. There is indirect control line in that area and firefighters are monitoring the situation. Once safe to do so, crews will assess the situation and determine if direct line is necessary. The agency said the fire has burned 153,336 acres.
After the rain this week the Redding Searchlight quoted Stephen Horner, a public information officer for the Camp Fire, as saying, “The fire is out”. Large wildfires, especially megafires like this one, are not usually declared officially “out” until there is nothing burning anywhere within the perimeter. In spite of rain and snow, trees, roots, and logs can continue burning for months; some may overwinter and continue to burn into the following Spring.
The number of fatalities has risen to 84 with 475 reported as unaccounted for. Almost 14,000 homes have been destroyed.
This week some residents of Magalia were allowed to return to their homes, but other areas, especially in Paradise, are still under evacuation orders.
The rain has made it much more difficult to search through the ashes to find and recover bodies.
One of the primary tasks still facing firefighters is the removal of hazardous trees that are still standing but are dead or partially burned and likely to fall.
Agencies in Butte County have worked with cooperators to acquire aerial photography of the populated areas that were the most severely affected by the Camp Fire. On 500 drone flights they took 70,000 photos that have been georeferenced and formatted into a map. The still photos, videos, and 360-degree images can help residents check the status of their homes. It was a massive undertaking that was completed in just a couple of days by 16 drone teams and several organizations that used the data to produce the map and videos.
Near Orchard Drive in Paradise. From the Butte County drone mapping project.
The photos and videos can help residents check the status of their homes
Photo taken by a drone in Paradise near Kilcrease Circle.
A large group of mapping and drone experts have photographed from the air the Paradise, California area that was devastated by the Camp Fire that roared through the communities November 8. The photos and videos shot by drones were all georeferenced and put into a map format, making it possible for residents to check the status of their homes. Drones flew above all of the major roads shooting videos, and 360-degree photos were taken from the air in 200 locations which can be panned and zoomed. The resolution is very good since they were taken with 20 megapixel cameras.
Photo taken by a drone in Magalia near Indian Drive.
The maps can be viewed at the Butte County website. The site is a little glitchy and I found that it did not work well with the Chrome browser; the street names, videos, and 360-degree photos were not available. It worked fairly well with the Firefox browser, but a window on the left side could not be eliminated which obscured about half the map. I did not try it with Internet Explorer. In spite of these issues, what the group accomplished in about two days is an incredible achievement, and may be the first time the process has been used on this scale to provide such detailed information to a population suffering from a natural disaster.
To see all of the articles on Wildfire Today about the Camp Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.
The 16 teams of drone operators conducted 500 flights in two days to collect 70,000 photos over 17,000 acres.
In addition to this resource, officials are mapping one by one the structures affected by the fire. That map is also available to residents who want to check on the status of their homes.
The video below explains the technical details of how the imagery was collected and displayed.
On November 22 Air Tanker 137 dropped on a bushfire in New South Wales
On November 22 Air Tanker 137 made the first drop by a Boeing 737 on an active fire. It occurred in the Hunter region of New South Wales, Australia. Screenshot from NSW RFS video.
(This article was first published on Fire Aviation)
On November 22 Air Tanker 137 made the first drop by a Boeing 737 on an active fire. It occurred in the Hunter region of New South Wales, Australia.
Coulson completed the conversion of the 737 a few months ago and it is now working on a contract with the New South Wales Rural Fire Service during their summer. Nicknamed “Gaia”, it arrived at Richmond RAAF Base near Sydney November 11 after a multi-day trip across the equator. It will be primarily based at the RAAF Base along with three other large air tankers from North America — a C-130Q (T-134), and two RJ85s (T-165 and T-166). Two other large air tankers will be based in Victoria at Avalon Airport in Melbourne, a C-130Q (T-131), and an RJ85 (T-163).
The 737 Large Air Tanker ‘Gaia’ has been in action in the Hunter this afternoon – the first time this kind of plane has been used to fight a fire anywhere in the world. It’s provided valuable support to firefighters on the ground. #NSWRFS#nswfires#avgeekpic.twitter.com/qHnbcddFpe
— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) November 22, 2018
Going by the coordinates on the images, the fire T-137 dropped on was very close to the Kurri Kurri Hospital southwest of Heddon Greta. The NSW RFS reported at 8:14 p.m. local time on November 22 that firefighters assisted by aircraft had slowed the spread of the fire. They estimated it had burned 61 hectares (151 acres).
The coordinates indicate the approximate location of the drop by Tanker 137. Google Earth.On November 22 Air Tanker 137 made the first drop by a Boeing 737 on an active fire. It occurred in the Hunter region of New South Wales, Australia. Screenshot from NSW RFS video. Click to enlarge.
He incorrectly said a beetle infestation leads to an added risk for fire
Photo of a portion of the 2016 Beaver Creek Fire in Colorado, an area with heavy beetle kill. One smoke is visible. USFS photo by Andrea Holland.
Today Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke tweeted that trees killed by beetles “are an added risk for fire”. This is misleading at best, and incorrect when all of the facts are brought to light.
This is not a healthy forest. This is what @realDonaldTrump, @SecretarySonny and I refer to when we talk about removing dead and dying timber. These gray trees were killed by a beetle infestation and now are an added risk for fire. (Helena NF in MT) pic.twitter.com/lGvXx4XZfi
— Secretary Ryan Zinke (@SecretaryZinke) November 21, 2018
And as before when the Secretary and the President said “poor forest management” and “environmental radicals” are responsible for the recent major fires in California, the issue can’t be described or solutions offered using just a few words. It is nuanced and complicated, not lending itself to a 280-character conversation.
In 2010 I first became aware of research by scientists that found fire severity decreases following an attack by mountain pine beetles. Since then additional studies have led to a more thorough understanding of the process.
Three factors or characteristics of a beetle-killed forest affect the behavior of a wildland fire.
After a tree is killed by a mountain pine beetle, the needles turn brown or red; this is known as the “red stage”. The dead red needles remain on the tree for one or two years and then fall off. During this period the potential for a crown fire that moves above the ground through the tops or crowns of the trees can increase. After the needles drop the potential for a crown fire is close to zero. A crown fire can’t be controlled. No amount of fire retardant dropped by aircraft, water applied from the ground, or dozers building fire lines will stop it. This is the largest factor to consider when discussing fire behavior before and after a beetle outbreak. After a couple of years, it is easier to control a fire in a beetle-affected forest than one that is green, and this effect lasts for decades. There are other factors to consider also.
After 5 to 15 years the limbs begin to break off a beetle-killed tree and then the top can break off and eventually the remainder of the tree falls to the ground. This adds fuel to the forest floor and can increase the intensity of a fire that burns along the ground. It is easier to control a surface fire, even one burning intensely, than a crown fire .
After a decade or two the potential for individual or multiple tree torching can increase. This involves the burning of an entire standing single tree or multiple trees. These latter two issues, surface fire intensity and torching, add to the challenges for firefighters, but the reduced crown fire potential greatly outweighs the other two.
This can be distilled into what I have called Resistance to Control (RTC) which considers those three characteristics of a beetle-killed forest. One to two years after the insect-attacked tree dies, the RTC increases, but after that it decreases immediately and remains lower than before the attack for several decades. Eventually live trees replace the dead ones and all three characteristics return to their normal state.
The chart below summarizes these three issues. It is from a paper titled Effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on wildfire, written by Jeffrey A. Hicke, Morris C. Johnson, Jane L. Hayes, and Haiganoush K. Preisler. With apologies to the authors of this very good research paper, I took the liberty of adding a Resistance To Control variable (the red line) to their chart.
There is still another characteristic of a beetle-killed forest that is important to consider. Pine beetle outbreaks do not automatically lead to catastrophic wildfires. In 2015 University of Colorado Boulder researcher Sarah Hart determined Western U.S. forests killed by the mountain pine beetle epidemic are no more at risk to burn than healthy Western forests. Other scientists have found similar results.
Mr. Zinke referred to a forest with evidence of tree mortality caused by insects as a forest that is not healthy. Insects are part of the ecosystem; they will always be part of the forests. We will never be able to eradicate them, nor should we. The populations of the insects run in cycles. They feed on trees to survive.
In addition, the “dead and dying timber” as a result of fires or insects that Mr. Zinke wants to remove is an integral part of the forest ecosystem. The National Wildlife Federation says, “Dead trees provide vital habitat for more than 1,000 species of wildlife nationwide. They also count as cover and places for wildlife to raise young.”
An article at The Hill November 20 covers how Mr. Zinke and Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue are hoping that the new version of the Farm Bill will allow more logging that among other objectives, “beautifies the forests”, as Mr. Zinke is quoted as saying.
Roy Renkin, a Yellowstone National Park Vegetation Management Specialist, wrote in 2010, “Disturbances like insect outbreaks and fire are recognized to be integral to the health of the forests,” he said, “and it has taken ecologists most of this century to realize as much. Yet when these disturbances occur, our emotional psyche leads us to say the forests are ‘unhealthy.’ Bugs and fires are neither good nor bad, they just are.”
Robert DePalma, 59, left, and William Erlbacher, 39, right, of Concow, CA. CAL FIRE photo.
CAL FIRE reported that two suspects have been arrested for the burglary and looting of a CAL FIRE station during the Camp Fire on November 8.
Robert DePalma and William Erlbacher, both of Concow, California, were arrested on five felony counts including vehicle theft, looting during an emergency, and possession of stolen property.
Their bail is set at $250,000 each.
The fire has killed at least 81 people and destroyed over 13,700 residences in Paradise and other nearby communities in California. About 870 people are still unaccounted for.
Our Opinion:
Looting an evacuated area that has been devastated by a natural disaster is one of the most disgusting, abhorrent, and sleazy crimes there is. But doing it at a facility where public employees are out helping citizens and putting their lives on the line takes it to a repugnant new level. If DePalma and Erlbacher are found guilty they deserve the the most severe sentence allowed under the law.
Today I was reading an article about how the communities in Northern California are dealing with the risk from wildfire. One item that got my attention was where a “forestry and wildfire specialist” was quoted describing the Fountaingrove area of Santa Rosa which was devastated by the Tubbs Fire in October of last year.
…a housing development in a rural area that had been built following the highest fire safety standards. Vegetation had been cleared as required, and the homes were built of fire-resistant materials.
The article correctly stated that the development had been “reduced to ashes by the Tubbs Fire”.
“How could that have happened?”, I thought. Fire resistant building standards and cleared vegetation? Firefighters know that if those two characteristics can be checked off, a structure has a much better chance of survival. So how did the community get wiped out?
The Fountaingrove community is 4 miles north of the intersection of Highways 101 and 12 in Santa Rosa. The Tubbs Fire, the deadliest of the fires in 2017, burned into the north section of Santa Rosa, including the Fountaingrove area. It killed 22 people, destroyed 5,643 structures, and burned 36,807 acres.
Map showing the perimeters of the Pocket, Tubbs, Nuns, and Atlas Fires. CAL FIRE October 15, 2017.
I would not call Fountaingrove a “rural area”. The thousands of homes there are very tightly packed, as you can see in the satellite photo below taken about five months before the Tubbs Fire.
Satellite photo of an area in Fountaingrove May 17, 2017, before the Tubbs Fire. Google Earth.
The next three photos are all of the same area, showing structures on Fir Ridge Road before and after the Tubbs Fire of October, 2017.
Fir Ridge Road area of Fountaingrove before the Tubbs Fire. Google Maps.Satellite photo of the Fir Ridge Road area in Fountaingrove, June 16, 2017. Google Earth.Satellite photo of the Fir Ridge Road area in Fountaingrove, October 17, 2017. Google Earth.
The photo below was taken before the fire, a few blocks south of the ones above. This home and all others around it burned.
A home on South Ridge Road in Fountaingrove before the Tubbs Fire. Google Maps.
The Fountaingrove area burned in the 1964 Hanley fire. During the 53-year period until the next fire, the 2017 Tubbs Fire, the houses grew back along with a great deal of vegetation. Most of the homes have shrubs in the yards and multiple large trees, often between the houses that are very close together. Some of the structures are partially obscured from aerial photos by limbs hanging over the roofs.
It is difficult to tell if the homes in these photos were constructed of fire resistant materials. But it is clear that other Firewise principles were not being followed.
In a fireprone environment there should be no flammable material within 5 feet of a structure, and in the Home Ignition Zones 5 to 100 feet away, trees need to be 6 to 18 feet apart depending on the distance from the building. If on a slope, these distances have to be increased substantially.
An excellent video that elaborates on these principles has been produced by the NFPA. It points out that the areas in between the trees do not have to be nuked. But to be fire resistant they need to consist of green grass or fire resistant small plants, and should be raked or mowed close to the ground.
If a structure meets these Firewise guidelines, it stands a much better chance of surviving a wildfire. However, if the weather conditions are extreme, such as 60 mph winds and single digit humidity which can lead to spot fires igniting a mile ahead of the main fire, it can be difficult to save a structure.
Most homes are ignited not by the main flaming front of a fire, but from burning embers that land out ahead and start new fires. Likely receptors for these embers are leaves in a gutter, mulch, wooden decks, lawn furniture, attic vents, and accumulations of dead grass, pine needles, leaves, and other flammable material.
When a community is initially planned, the engineers may have done some things right, such as the design of the streets, and water systems. But if everything else is left up to the knowledge and discretion of developer and homeowner, very important principles might be ignored.
Fountaingrove did not meet all of the Firewise guidelines, but the streets were wide, making it easier for large fire trucks to access the structures. The very close spacing of the homes means that if one burns, the radiant heat alone can ignite its neighbor.
Other things to consider in mitigating the wildfire threat include multiple evacuation routes — if one becomes compromised by the fire, another could remain open. Large open spaces without flammable vegetation can serve as safety zones for residents who can’t escape. Backup electrical power sources that can keep pumps running so that community water tanks remain full can ensure firefighters have water at hydrants.
With the warming climate leading to extreme fires and fire seasons that are nearly year round, it is inevitable that deadly fires will strike many wildland-urban interface communities. Under the conditions we have seen in recent years, casually ignoring the threat will lead to more fatalities and property damage. It is not IF a fire will hit a fire prone area, but WHEN. The best solution is to learn to live with and adapt to fire, not ignore it.
Many factors can lead to an area being vulnerable to wildfire, including fire suppression leading to a buildup of vegetation, density of homes like at Fountaingrove, failure of homeowners to use Firewise principles, lack of community standards, insurance companies not understanding the issue, the federal government reducing expenditures for vegetation management and prescribed burning, lawsuits that halt vegetation management projects, and cutting the numbers of firefighters, air tankers, and Type 1 helicopters. When politicians take hold of just one of these issues while ignoring the rest, it can make it impossible to have a rational conversation about adapting to fire.
Discussions need to be thorough and nuanced, not politicized and influenced by industry that profits from using just a single, ill-conceived concept. And zeroing in on one vague term like “raking” and “poor forest management” simply confuse the general public when the complete picture is not illuminated.
