Near surface smoke forecast for 6 p.m. MDT September 13, 2019. Click to enlarge.
(9:52 a.m. MDT September 13, 2019)
Forecasts predict that smoke from the Whiskey Fire 10 miles southwest of the Flagstaff Airport will move into the city Friday afternoon. (see maps)
Thursday and Thursday night the wind from the east and northeast moved smoke from the fire off to the southwest but that direction is predicted to change shortly after noon Friday to come from the south and southwest, pushing the smoke into the Flagstaff area. If the fire activity continues on Saturday the smoke is expected to continue to impact the city.
Near surface smoke forecast for 6 p.m. MDT September 14, 2019, assuming significant activity on the fires continues.
The Whiskey Fire started September 2 on the Coconino National Forest and is being managed rather than completely suppressed. Thursday firefighters began conducting firing operations along Forest Road 231 to ensure the wildfire stays in its containment area. Today, Friday, the plan is to moderate but continue the firing operations through the weekend, according to information released by the Forest Service.
The agency said smoke may affect Flagstaff, Munds Park, Mountainaire, Kachina Village, Forest Highlands, Doney Park, Mormon Lake Village, Highway 89A Corridor, Sedona, Village of Oak Creek, and portions of Interstate 40.
The fire has burned 3,500 acres.
Map showing heat detected by a satellite during an overflight at 3:24 a.m. MDT September 13, 2019.Whiskey Fire. Forest Service photo distributed September 13, 2019.
Sheridan, Boulin, and Saber fires, all within 70 miles of Flagstaff
GOES 16 satellite photo (enhanced with infrared imagery) showing smoke generated by wildfires in Arizona at 6:46 p.m. MDT August 21, 2019.
Three wildfires in Central Arizona have burned a total of more than 14,000 acres. All of the fires are being managed, rather than suppressed, in order to enhance the natural resources.
The Sheridan Fire 26 miles northwest of Prescott is by far the most active of the three, more than tripling in size over the last two days. (See map below) The fire behavior is described as extreme, with running, wind-driven runs, and short-range spotting. A mapping flight early Thursday morning found that the lightning-caused fire had burned 8,594 acres. About 75 percent of the fire is being monitored while 25 percent is under a point protection strategy, suppressing or retarding the spread in order to protect specific sites.
The Saber fire, also started by lightning, has burned 2,093 acres 16 miles southwest of Flagstaff. Very little current information is available about this incident.
The Ikes and Castle Fires have burned a total of almost 23,000 acres
Aerial view of the Ikes Fire, August 15, 2019. Paul Lemmon photo.
Two wildland fires on lands managed by federal agencies north of the Grand Canyon have burned a total of almost 23,000 acres. Both fires, burning at about 8,000 feet above sea level, are being allowed to spread within predetermined boundaries in order to benefit the natural resources. (see map below)
The largest blaze, the Castle Fire on the Kaibab National Forest, has burned through 96 percent of the 19,368-acre planning area, consuming a significant amount of dead and down trees and some mixed conifer species. As expected with strong gusty winds on Friday, it became more active moving into pockets of unburned piñon-juniper and mixed conifer. The fire slowed once reaching confinement lines. A total of 32 personnel are assigned, which includes 4 fire engine crews. The estimated cost to date is $4.6 million.
3-D map (looking west) showing the locations of the Castle and Ikes Fires north of the Grand Canyon in Arizona. Data from August 17, 2019 at 3:30 a.m.
The 3,500-acre Ikes Fire is burning in Grand Canyon National Park and the Kaibab National Forest. It has spread across 42 percent of the 7,785-acre planning area, with low to moderate fire behavior being observed. Firefighting resources assigned include 1 hand crew, 7 fire engines, and 1 helicopter for a total of 88 personnel. On Friday gusty winds prevented firefighters from carrying out firing operations. Crews patrolled the perimeter on the northeast and eastern portions of the fire while other personnel continued to prep the west side of Forest Service Road 223. Observed fire behavior was active, with backing fire along ridge tops and single tree torching. The estimated cost to date is $1 million.
The predicted weather for the weekend is warm, very dry conditions with temperatures about 5 degrees above average. Gusty west to southwest breezes are predicted for Saturday afternoon with light drainage winds overnight.
Firefighters on the Castle Fire. Photo by Jackie Banks for the Kaibab National Forest July 19, 2019.
It has come to within a mile of the north edge of the city
(UPDATE at 6:24 a.m. MDT July 23, 2019)
Air Tanker 01, a BAe-146, drops retardant on the Museum Fire near Mt. Elden at 2:30 p.m. July 22, 2019. Photo by Nick Cain.
Fire officials say the Museum Fire north of Flagstaff, Arizona has burned 1,800 acres. (UPDATE at 11:33 a.m. MDT July 23, 2019: the size estimate by the Incident Management Team was reduced to 1,000 acres Tuesday morning.) Part of that increase may be from back-burning out ahead of the fire in the area of Mount Elden Lookout Road.
Monday afternoon the Coconino County Sheriff issued an evacuation order effective at 6 p.m. until further notice for all persons living, working and accessing a home from Mount Elden Lookout Road. All residents east of Weatherford Road with access on Mount Elden Lookout Road were included. The evacuation is to support burnout operations and to prevent the fire from coming into these neighborhoods.
At about 4 p.m. the weather station near the Flagstaff airport south of town recorded 0.03 inch of rain. Monday night the relative humidity reached 70 percent, a level that would retard the spread of a wildfire. The weather forecast for the fire area calls for a 70 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms in the afternoons on Tuesday and Wednesday, with an estimated total of approximately half an inch. Rain could continue off and on through the rest of this week.
Moisture has increased overnight and we are expecting an active day of thunderstorms. Hail, gusty winds, and localized heavy rain/flooding are all possible with the stronger storms. #azwx pic.twitter.com/uKaWrsHKty
A fixed wing mapping flight scheduled for Monday night had to be cancelled due to cloud cover.
The Type 1 Southwest Area Incident Management Team 2 assumed command of the fire at 6 p.m. Monday. The Incident Command Post is located at Ft. Tuthill, just south of Flagstaff.
This map represents the evacuation information for the Museum Incident as well as the sheltering information in Flagstaff. It was updated at 7 p.m. 7/22/2019 by Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs (AZ DEMA), Coconino County, and SWIMT2.
The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite overflight of the Museum Fire at 3:18 a.m. MDT July 22, 2019. The red line was the product created by interpreting data from a fixed wing mapping flight at 1:45 a.m. MDT July 22, 2019. Click to enlarge.
The Coconino National Forest is saying the Museum Fire north of Flagstaff has burned 1,000 acres, which is consistent with the data from a satellite overflight of the fire at 3:18 a.m. MDT July 22, 2019.
(UPDATED at 7:46 a.m. MDT July 22, 2019)
Map showing the perimeter of the Museum Fire at 1:45 a.m. MDT July 22, 2019, according to a fixed wing mapping flight.
Firefighters continue to battle the Museum Fire just north of Flagstaff, Arizona.
Coconino County has issued a pre-evacuation notice for several neighborhoods, including Mt. Elden Lookout Estates, north and west of Highway 89 and Silver Saddle, Hutcheson Acres, McCann Estates, and all of the Timberline communities (Black Bill Park, Wupatki Trails and Pine Mountain Estates.) Residents in these areas are advised to be ready to evacuate if it becomes necessary.
Data from an overnight fixed wing mapping flight indicates that the fire has burned 415 acres. Satellite imagery collected about half an hour later appears to show that the fire is significantly larger, but the fixed wing flight should be much more accurate.
We will update this article as more information becomes available.
(Originally published at 7:05 p.m. MDT July 21, 2019)
Museum Fire, July 21, 2019. InciWeb.
A fire named “Museum” is causing evacuations on the north side of Flagstaff, Arizona. It was reported at 10:53 a.m. Sunday and had burned approximately 400 acres by 6:22 Sunday afternoon, coming to within a mile of the outskirts of the city (see the map below).
Due to the complexity, a Type 1 Incident Management Team has been ordered and should arrive on Monday.
Evacuation information is being handled by Coconino County Emergency Management and conducted by the Sheriff’s Office. The Emergency Management Call Center can be reached at (928) 213-2990.
Map showing the location of the Museum Fire at 2:54 p.m. MDT July 21, 2019 north of Flagstaff, Arizona.
Firefighting resources assigned to fire Sunday afternoon included:
7 Fire Engines
2 Hot Shot crews
4 other Hand Crews
2 Dozers
2 Water Tenders
4 Large Air Tankers
4 Single Engine Air Tankers
1 Very Large Air Tanker (DC-10)
3 Type 1 Helicopters
A weather station at the Flagstaff Airport Sunday afternoon recorded a temperature of 87 degrees, 14 percent humidity, and 6 to 9 mph winds out of the west and southwest gusting to 20. For Monday the forecast is for 83 degrees, 18 percent RH, and variable winds of 6 to 9 mph.
The #MuseumFire, north of Flagstaff, has burned 400 acres and continues to grow.
Are you near the fire? Message us with sights/updates, and please stay safe.
#museumfire update: An evacuation notice has been issued for recreational areas of Forest Rd. 420 to Hwy 89 (Mount Elden Lookout) and Schultz Pass Rd. to private land. A pre-evacuation notice has also been issued for the area of Forest Rd. 420 to Friedlein Prairie. pic.twitter.com/4pHSAjVxhJ
Map showing heat detected on the Hart Fire at 3:36 a.m. MDT July 21, 2019. The fire is 18 miles northeast of Payson, Arizona.
(Originally published at 10:53 a.m. MDT July 21, 2019)
The Hart Fire 18 miles northeast of Payson, Arizona was very active Saturday and Saturday night, spreading south for about a mile. The Coconino National Forest has not updated the information about the fire on InciWeb since July 19, but part of the growth could be due to firing out along Forest Roads 96 and 321.
The fire is not being fully suppressed, according to the strategy described by the Coconino National Forest on July 19:
After careful review and discussion by fire managers, both Hart and Duke Fires will be allowed to burn in their predetermined fire perimeter to obtain resource objectives. Low intensity wildfires are used to help protect ponderosa pine forests from more severe damage by cleaning the forest floor of existing dried pine needles, dead shrubs and grasses. Too much accumulation of dried and dead fuels could allow fires to reach the canopy of the trees and possible crown fires. Fire also helps fertilize the soils to ensure a healthier forest.
The term “their predetermined fire perimeter” is not defined and as far as we can tell no maps of that area have been posted.
The Duke Fire is 10 miles north of the Hart Fire, north of highway 65/87/282, and has not been very active recently.
The Hart Fire is burning at 7,000 feet. The last update by the Forest Service on July 19 said it had burned 1,100 acres. Our very unofficial estimate based on satellite data shows that it has most likely burned two to three times that amount.
The weather forecast for the Hart Fire for the next few days predicts temperatures in the 80s, humidity less than 20 percent, and a chance of thunderstorms each day beginning Monday.
