Predicted dry lightning could worsen the fire situation in California and other western states

Red Flag Warning in effect for Northern California Sunday and Monday

August 24, 2020 | 7:45 a.m. PDT

Map fires California Bay Area
Map of fires in the California Bay Area, August 23, 2020.

As if firefighters and residents evacuating or battling lightning-caused wildfires in California didn’t already have enough to worry about, another round of dry lightning is in the forecast for Sunday and Monday.

Thunderstorms with little or no rain is what ignited over 500 fires earlier last week. Now scattered or isolated dry thunderstorms could hit northern California and portions of Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado through Monday.

Nick Nauslar, a Fire Meteorologist at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, wrote about the forecast in a tweet at 11:30 p.m. Saturday:

Hundreds of new fires are likely if this event pans out. And thunderstorm outflow winds will impact some ongoing fires which would lead to an increase of fire spread/behavior. I hope I'm wrong and this forecast busts. But for now, data points to another big event.

So it’s not just the potential for new fires that that is cause for concern — the strong outflow winds associated with the thunderstorms could greatly increase the rate of spread of the existing fires. It can also put firefighters in even greater danger as the winds can shift 180 degrees very quickly changing the direction a fire is moving, possibly overrunning personnel.

(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the lightning fires in California, including the most recent, click HERE.)

Check out this video showing the effect the passage of a thunderstorm had on the just-ignited Hennessey Fire August 17 in Napa Valley. That fire has now burned 287,811 acres. The effect of outflow winds is temporary, but a blaze that is suddenly much larger can outstrip the ability of firefighters to quickly suppress it.

Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the northern half of California through Monday evening. The highest threat of dry lightning is Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

With existing shortages of personnel, equipment, engines, and firefighting aircraft, more fires would put further strain on the systems that are already being managed at the highest planning level nationally, Preparedness Level 5. In PL 5 over 80% of the nation’s incident management teams and wildland firefighting personnel are committed to incidents. Resource orders are being prioritized to fires across California and the west.

Aircraft that can map a fire using infrared imagery have not yet flown all of the large incidents and some maps and acreages are estimates. One of the two mapping aircraft owned by the U.S. Forest Service, N144Z which is the most capable, has not successfully mapped a fire since November 16, 2018 because an avionics issue has not been repaired. The Forest Service has hired privately owned mapping aircraft in an attempt to fill the void.

Below are updates on the largest incidents in California.

LNU Lightning Complex

  • Updated August 24, 2020 at 7:38 p.m. PDT
  • Location: North Bay
  • Counties: Napa, Lake, Yolo, Solano, Sonoma
  • Administrative Unit: CAL FIRE Sonoma-Lake-Napa
  • Acres: 350,030. The largest fire in the complex is the Hennessey Fire, 293,602. The Walbridge Fire west of Healdsburg is 54,068, and the Meyers Fire on the coast north of Jenner is 2,360.
  • Structures destroyed: 871
  • Personnel assigned: 1,857
  • Evacuation information:  CAL FIRE LNU Twitter page
  • Notes: Fires that merged to become the Hennessey Fire include Gamble, Green, Spanish, 5-10, Morgan, and Markley Fires.
LNU Lightning Complex map
Map of the LNU Lightning Complex of fires at 9:21 p.m. PDT August 22, 2020.

SCU Lightning Complex

  • Updated August 24, 2020 at 7:44 a.m. PDT
  • Location: South Bay
  • Counties: Santa Clara, Alameda, Stanislaus, Contra Costa, San Joaquin
  • Administrative Unit: CAL FIRE Santa Clara
  • Acres: 347,196
  • Structures destroyed: 12
  • Personnel assigned: 1,336
  • Evacuation information:  CAL FIRE SCU Twitter page
  • Notes: The complex is comprised of approximately 20 separate fires broken into three zones; the Canyon Zone, the Calaveras Zone, and the Deer Zone.

CZU August Lightning

  • Updated August 24, 2020 at 7:44 a.m. PDT
  • Location: South Bay
  • Counties: San Mateo, Santa Cruz
  • Administrative Unit: CAL FIRE San Mateo-Santa Cruz
  • Acres: 74,000
  • Structures destroyed: 163
  • Personnel assigned: 1,511
  • Evacuation information: CAL FIRE CZU Twitter page
  • Notes: The fires continue to actively burn above the marine layer in the heavy timber and thick undergrowth. Damage Inspection Teams have begun to survey areas where fire activity has diminished and it is safe to do so. The number of destroyed structures reflected may change as teams continue to make progress. Firefighting resources are limited due to the number of fires burning throughout California. Limited visibility due to smoke is hampering aircraft operations. Approximately 77,000 people have been evacuated.
Map SCU Lightning Complex and CZU August Lightning Complex of fires
Map of the SCU Lightning Complex and CZU August Lightning Complex of fires at 7:54 a.m. August 23, 2020.

River and Carmel Fires

  • Updated August 24, 2020 at 7:44 a.m. PDT
  • Location: Five miles south of Salinas, near Pine Canyon Rd. and River Rd.
  • Counties: Monterey
  • Administrative Unit: CAL FIRE San Benito-Monterey
  • Acres: 48,424
  • Structures destroyed: 21
  • Personnel assigned: 1,274
  • Evacuation information: CAL FIRE San Benito-Monterey Twitter page, and see maps produced by Monterey County here.
  • Notes: The Carmel Fire 2 miles southwest of the River Fire has burned 6,695 acres and destroyed 37 structures.

Dolan Fire

  • Updated August 23, 2020 at 9:31 a.m. PDT
  • Location: on the coast 10 miles south of Big Sur
  • Counties: Monterey
  • Administrative Unit: U.S. Forest Service, Los Padres NF
  • Acres: 19,287
  • Structures destroyed: 0
  • Personnel assigned: 488
  • Evacuation information:
  • Notes: On private land and the Los Padres National Forest, threatening the communities of Hermitage, Partington Ridge, and Lucia. Multiple businesses, communications sites, parks and recreational sites are also threatened. On Saturday crews continued to focus on point protection operations around Hermitage and Lucia to the South, and Partington Ridge and Anderson Peak communications infrastructure to the North. As the threat diminishes these priorities will shift. After more resources arrive the plan will expand to include additional perimeter control operations. The fire was mapped for the first time Saturday night with a fixed wing aircraft. This accurate method is the reason for the large increase in the known acreage.
River Carmel Dolan Fires map August 22 California
Map showing the locations of the River, Carmel, and Dolan Fires August 22, 2020.

August Complex

  • Updated August 24, 2020 at 7:44 a.m. PDT
  • Location: 18 miles southwest of Red Bluff
  • Counties: Tehama, Glenn, Lake, Mendocino, Trinity
  • Administrative Unit: Mendocino National Forest and CAL FIRE
  • Acres: 177,750
  • Structures destroyed: 10
  • Personnel assigned: 433
  • Evacuation information:
  • Notes: Of the 20 fires in the Complex the two largest are the Doe (136,430 acres) and Glade (13,088 acres). A Structure Damage Assessment Team has been ordered. Limited information is available about this incident.
August Complex Map
August Complex Map, August 22, 2020. Incident Management Team.

Update on fires in Israel, December 6, 2010

Israel firefighters

Now that firefighters in Israel are controlling the fires, the three Type 1 hand crews from the United States will not be responding after all. The 41 BLM and 19 U.S. Forest Service firefighters had been scheduled to depart from Boise on a military aircraft at noon on Sunday, but they were put on standby at Boise early Sunday morning. Today, Monday, the order was cancelled.

FirefighterCloseCalls has information about an additional fatality during the fire in Israel:

It is with deep regret that we advise you that the Police Chief in Haifa (Israel) Ahuva Tomer, has died in the Line of Duty from her burn injuries after 4 day hospitalization. Tomer, who was the first ever woman police chief there, was gravely injured in the now under control Carmel forest fire, while driving along with that bus full of Prison Service cadets that burned and killed the cadets as well. She has been fighting for her life since, and doctors even reported a change for the better, but on this morning her condition became dire and she succumbed to her wounds. She oversaw a command of 500 police officers. As always, our sincere condolences.

As far as we know, none of  the MAFFS air tankers deployed from U.S. Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve bases made it to Israel, because the fires were mostly controlled before they arrived. Wildfire Today talked with Ann Skarban at the 302nd Airlift Wing at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs who told us that their two C-130 MAFFS 2-equipped air tankers departed from their base on Saturday. After they arrived at a scheduled crew rest and refueling stop at Lajes Field in the Azores (map) they were told to stand by there. They spent Sunday in the Azores, then were told Monday morning that their order for the fire had been cancelled and should return to Colorado.  Ms. Skarban was not sure, but thought the other four to six MAFFS C-130’s from bases in South Carolina, Wyoming, and California had similar fates.

We talked with Lt. Col. Rose Dunlap of the 145th Airlift Wing at Charlotte, SC who told us that they received an order for their two MAFFS air tankers. One never made it off the ground; the other departed but was cancelled soon after it took off.

The Christian Science Monitor has an article that compares the fire in Israel with some other large fires around the world. has a regular feature called The Big Picture, which frequently has outstanding photographs of emerging events. Now they have a great collection of 35 photos of the fires in Israel. Be advised, that one has a warning about graphic content, and if you click on it you’ll see bodies of people that were burned to death on the bus that became entrapped. Close to 40 people died in the bus incident.

The blame game gets into full swing in Israel.

Now Lebanon is the hot spot
Continue reading “Update on fires in Israel, December 6, 2010”

Firefighters make progress on fires in Israel

747 dropping in Israel
747 Supertanker dropping retardant in Ein Hod in the Carmel Forest on the outskirts of Haifa, Israel, on Dec. 5. Photo: Jack Guez

The word “control” is being used in Israel in describing the state of the fires that have killed over 40 people and blackened at least 9,000 acres. Fire official Boaz Rakia told reporters Sunday evening: “The fire department has declared that the fire is under control.” He added that the small fires are still burning in some places. Earlier on Sunday the Police announced that all of the major fires in the northern part of Israel were contained at 4:30 p.m., 77 hours after the largest fire started on Thursday.

Police also said there have been 20 attempts at wildfire arson over the previous 48 hours and four people have been arrested.

The United States’ National Interagency Fire Center has three Type 1 crews and some overhead sitting in Boise. They were going to depart on a military aircraft Sunday at noon but are being held “pending reassessment of situation on Monday”, according to a Tweet from @BLMNIFC at 9:03 a.m. Sunday. Other fire resources that were being mobilized out of the Northwest and Northern regions were canceled Saturday night and Sunday morning. Custer’s National Incident Management Team is already in Israel and should be operational on Sunday.

The 30+ firefighting aircraft that have swarmed into Israel to help suppress the fires will be held until Monday. Six U.S. Air National Guard MAFFS air tankers were scheduled to depart, I believe, Sunday morning for Israel, but it appears from the reports coming out of that country that they will not be needed.

747 air tanker dropping in Israel
The 747 Supertanker drops on the fire in Israel on December 5, 2010. Photo: Jerusalem Post

Evergreen’s 747 Supertanker, Air Tanker 979, arrived in Israel Saturday evening local time and completed two sorties on Sunday. Below are some quotes from the Jerusalem Post about the aircraft:
Continue reading “Firefighters make progress on fires in Israel”

Israeli fires: US aircraft respond, 2 suspects arrested

(Scroll to the bottom to see updates on this article.)

Flames Israel nightTwo suspects have been arrested and accused of negligence in starting the large fire in the Carmel area of Israel that has burned over 9,800 acres and killed about 41 people. Authorities did not specify exactly how the fire started or elaborate on the “negligence”.

Most of the fatalities occurred when a bus load of prison system employees on the way to evacuate a prison became entrapped when a highway was blocked by a fallen tree. The bus and another vehicle behind it were engulfed in flames.

The fires have forced about 17,000 to evacuate their homes, as well as three jails, a university, and a hospital.

As the flames are blackening about half of Israel’s national forest, the criticism mounts of the inadequate state of the country’s firefighting capacity. There have been calls for resignations and investigations.

At least 12 countries are sending aid to Israel to help combat the fires, which we detailed HERE. The Israli Air Force is expecting at least 25 firefighting aircraft, including the American 747 Supertanker, Air Tanker 979, owned by Evergreen. It is expected to land at Ben Gurion International Airport at 4:11 MT today. After crew rest, the 747 may be available for operations on Sunday, if Evergreen’s schedule holds up.

The United States is sending three at least six C-130 aircraft with Modular Airborne Firefighting Systems (MAFFS) from Wyoming Air National Guard’s 153rd Airlift Wing in Cheyenne, Wyoming; 145th Airlift Wing of the North Carolina Air National Guard in Charlotte, N.C.;  the 146th Airlift Wing of the California Air National Guard in Port Hueneme, Calif.; and the 302nd Airlift Wing Air Force Reserve unit at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado. Two other military planes are ferrying firefighting supplies to Israel.

The United States is also sending Custer’s National Incident Management Organization (NIMO) Team, 45 metric tons of Fire-Trol fire retardant and 12,000 liters of WD881 Class A foam. The fire retardant is being flown to Israel by U.S. military C-130’s and aircraft chartered by the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Here is a map of the fire in the Carmel forest area of Israel.

FirefighterCloseCalls has some details about one of the firefighter fatalities:

Continue reading “Israeli fires: US aircraft respond, 2 suspects arrested”

At least 11 countries provide assistance for fatal fire in Israel

(Scroll to the bottom to see the latest updates.)

Many countries are either providing firefighting assistance or have offered assistance to Israel as the country attempts to suppress the 20,000 dunham (4,294 acre) wildfire that has killed approximately 50 people, according to The Yeshiva World News. (Another report puts the size at 7,000 acres.)

A bus that was carrying prison service trainees to help evacuate a prison became trapped on a highway when a fallen tree blocked its path. About 40 people on the bus and in a car that was traveling with them were killed. Two firefighters and a policeman were among the dead.

As of 8:10 ET on Friday, The Yeshiva World News reports that a total of 10 aircraft, many from foreign countries, are currently working on the fire, including at least four Canadair CL-215 or CL-415 air tankers and some single engine air tankers.

The Israeli Air Force is preparing its bases around the country to host a total of 24 international aircraft which will assist in the firefighting effort with air tankers, helicopters, supplies, equipment, and firefighters. Israel’s Foreign Ministry has asked Bulgaria, Croatia, Spain, France, and Romania to send firefighting aircraft which could operate at night. The expected international assistance includes:

  • Turkey: has agreed to send two firefighting aircraft, despite the difficult diplomatic crisis between the two countries
  • Cyprus: two firefighting aircraft and one police helicopter
  • Greece: four air tankers
  • France: four firefighting aircraft
  • Australia: offered assistance.
  • Bulgaria: 92 firefighters and two firefighting aircraft.
  • Britain: three firefighting aircraft
  • Spain: two firefighting aircraft
  • Russia: two firefighting aircraft
  • Croatia: one firefighting aircraft
  • Azerbaijan: one firefighting aircraft
  • Romania: firefighting aircraft

Israel asked the U.S. Government to send firefighting aircraft and equipment from nearby American bases. President Obama said on Thursday that the government is looking into what kinds of aid it could provide, saying:

A short while ago, our ambassador in Tel Aviv, Jim Cunningham, issued a disaster declaration, which has launched an effort across the U.S. government to identify the firefighting assistance we have available and provide it to Israel as quickly as possible. Of course, that’s what friends do for each other.

We talked with Ken Frederick at the National Interagency Fire Center who told us that there are no U.S. firefighting resources being mobilized, and that the only assistance that he expects to be provided would be “disaster assistance”. [See the update below.]

Yoram Levi, a spokesman for Israel’s fire and rescue service said, “We don’t have big aircraft that can carry a large amount of water.”

Israel has only 1,500 firefighters, a number widely accepted as woefully inadequate for a country of 7.6 million people. Some firefighters there have complained of having old and faulty equipment. A columnist for Maariv, Ben Caspit, wrote that it is surprising that a high-tech country like Israel is also the country “whose fire-trucks date back to the previous century, and a country that therefore finds itself caught, standing before the flames, with its pants down”.

Speaking to reporters at an Air Force base on Friday, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters:

We were not prepared for such a wildfire. It was never taken into account, by the professionals or authorities supervising them. There is a problem here, but first we have to take care of this fire.”

Two people that were attempting to start a new fire in the Carmel forest were spotted by an unmanned aerial aircraft and were arrested. Meanwhile, fire investigators have found the single point of origin of the large fire and expect to announce the fire’s cause on Saturday.


UPDATE @ 1:00 MT, December 3:

Evergreen’s 747 Supertanker is being deployed to Israel.


UPDATE @ 1:45 MT, December 3:

Ken Frederick at the National Interagency Fire Center told Wildfire Today that a National Interagency Management Team, a NIMO team, is being dispatched to provide technical assistance to Israel. We don’t know yet which team it will be. We found out it will be Custer’s NIMO team.


UPDATE @ 2:15 MT, December 3

It turns out that the U.S. is also sending some fire retardant and Class A foam to Israel, in addition to the NIMO team. The U.S. Office for International Development just issued this press release:
Continue reading “At least 11 countries provide assistance for fatal fire in Israel”

Wildfire in Israel kills 40

wildfire in israel
Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men observe the fire that killed at least 40 people in Israel on Thursday.

UPDATED @ 4:00 p.m. MT, December 2, 2010

A fire in Israel has killed about 40 people.

From Reuters:

A massive brushfire, the worst in Israel’s history, raged unchecked for more than eight hours Thursday, burning thousands of acres of land, forcing villages to evacuate, and killing up to 40 people when their bus was engulfed in flames. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the blaze as “a catastrophe, the likes of which we have not yet known”.

He appealed to Russia, Cyprus, Greece and Italy for help in putting out the fire, which began on the slopes of the Carmel hill, southeast of Israel’s port city of Haifa, and rapidly spread.

Cyprus and Greece agreed to dispatch firefighting helicopters.

Some nine hours after the blaze was estimated to have begun exhausted firefighters, those from Haifa reinforced by teams from all over Israel, and by soldiers, were still struggling to bring it under control, but without success.

“We’ve lost control of the fire,” a spokesman for Haifa’s firefighting services was quoted as saying.

Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovich said it was impossible to say when the fire could be brought under control. However, firefighters were speculated that as the fire spread west a major road linking Haifa with Tel Aviv to the south could act as a natural firebreak, or, failing that, the sea would.

At least 22 people were confirmed dead, but other accounts put the number as high as 40.

The fatalities were prison guards who had been drafted to help evacuate the 500 prisoners from a jail in the path of the flames. Their bus, with 50 people on board, was trapped by a falling tree and 40 of them burned to death. The others were injured.

The fire had been far from the road when the bus first set off, but spread about 1,500 metres in less than three minutes.

This video is not in English, but the pictures tell much of the story.

Thanks Joe, Pierre, Brian, & Dick