Wildfire smoke forecast for August 3, 2020

August 2, 2020 | 4:38 p.m. PDT

Wildfire smoke forecast August 3, 2020
Near-surface wildfire smoke forecast for 4 a.m. PDT August 3, 2020. NOAA HRRR-Smoke.

Smoke from southern California’s 20,000-acre Apple Fire is predicted to move north overnight Sunday. Monday morning it is expected to affect areas in areas of Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho.

The map above created by NOAA is for near-surface smoke which can affect humans more than vertically integrated smoke higher in the atmosphere.

NOAA predicts that a new fire in north-central Oregon, the Fir Mountain Road Fire seven miles south-southeast of Hood River, will produce smoke that will move into eastern Oregon, southeast Washington, and eastern Idaho. The fire started Saturday night, and Sunday morning was estimated at 70 acres. It seems surprising that it could be generating such a large quantity of smoke, however it is burning in slash piles from recent logging, as well as adjacent standing timber.

Fir Mountain Road Fire
Fir Mountain Road Fire. Oregon Department of Forestry photo August 2, 2020.

The Apple Fire is generating large quantities of smoke

Areas predicted to be affected Sunday include southeast California, northern Arizona, southern Utah, and parts of Colorado and New Mexico

August 2, 2020 | 9:30 a.m. PDT

Map smoke Apple Fire forecast
Forecast by NOAA for the distribution of smoke created by the Apple Fire in southern California at 2 p.m. PDT August 2, 2020.

The Apple Fire north of Beaumont and Banning in southern California has been burning vigorously and creating a very large amount of smoke since it started at 5 p.m. July 31. The map above is a prediction by NOAA for the distribution of wildfire smoke at 2 p.m. PDT today, August 2. It predicts that areas significantly affected will include southeast California, northern Arizona, southern Utah, and parts of Colorado and New Mexico.

(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Apple Fire, including the most recent, click here.)

The size of the Apple Fire is uncertain because the north side of the fire could not be completely mapped at 8:30 p.m. Saturday by the fixed wing aircraft due to the very large convection column of smoke and heat over the fire. But the crew was able to map 15,000 acres of the blaze.

Map smoke Apple Fire
Satellite photo by GOES-17 of smoke created by the Apple Fire in southern California at 7 a.m. PDT August 2, 2020. NASA.

Wildfire smoke forecast, July 26

Most of the smoke was generated by the Caldwell Fire in northeast California

Wildfire smoke forecast 6 am MDT July 25, 2020
Wildfire smoke forecast for 6 a.m. MDT July 25, 2020. NOAA.

The map shows the forecast for the distribution of vertically integrated smoke from wildfires at 6 a.m. MDT July 26, 2020. Most of the smoke is from the Caldwell Fire in northeast California.

Wildfire smoke and COVID-19

Preliminary evidence suggests exposure to wildfire smoke may increase susceptibility to COVID-19

Wildfire Smoke And COVID 19

The U.S. Forest Service has published a three-page fact sheet with information about the impacts of wildfire smoke during the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers the effects of smoke during the pandemic, who is most at risk, symptoms, masks and face coverings, and how to minimize potential health effects from wildfire smoke. The document has useful information and many links to additional materials.

Here are some excerpts:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic is overlapping with the occurrence of wildfires in the United States.
  • Wildfire smoke is a complex mixture of air pollutants that are harmful to human health.
  • Exposure to air pollutants in wildfire smoke can irritate the lungs, cause inflammation, alter immune function, and increase susceptibility to respiratory infections, likely including COVID-19.
  • Recent scientific publications (Conticini et al., 2020 & Travaglio et al., 2020) suggest that air pollutant exposure worsens COVID-19 symptoms and outcomes.
  • Those with or recovering from COVID-19 may be at increased risk of health effects from exposure to wildfire smoke due to compromised heart and lung function caused by the disease.
  • Although N95 respirators provide protection from wildfire smoke, they might be in short supply as frontline healthcare workers use them during the pandemic.
  • Cloth face coverings that are used to slow the spread of COVID-19 offer little protection against harmful air pollutants in wildfire smoke because these coverings do not capture most small particles in smoke.
Satellite photo smoke Australia fires
Satellite photo of smoke from fires in New South Wales and Victoria January 4, 2020. The red areas represent heat.

Forecast for wildfire smoke, June 20, 2020

Forecast for the distribution of smoke from wildfires Saturday evening

Forecast for wildfire smoke
Forecast for the distribution of smoke from wildfires at 7 p.m. MDT June 20, 2020. NOAA HRRR-Smoke

The forecast for the distribution of smoke from wildfires at 7 p.m. MDT Saturday looks rather bleak for areas of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma.