Maps: wildfire smoke conditions and forecast

wildfire smoke map north america
The distribution of wildfire smoke across North America, May 30, 2019. By NOAA, Office of Satellite And Product Operations.
wildfire smoke forecast map
Forecast for the distribution of wildfire smoke at 5 a.m. MDT May 31, 2019. By NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

Here is how the NOAA Office of Satellite And Product Operations described the smoke conditions at 10:36 a.m. MDT May 30, 2019:

“Northwestern to Western Canada/South Central Canada/Southeastern
Canada/Northern New England…

“Large complex wildfires are continuing to burn and be observed over Northern Alberta Province and through portions of Northwestern Canada. Several smaller fires are burning and being observed as well in South Central Canada. Heavy density smoke is being observed in the region of the large complex wildfires and has been transported with the low level flow South and Eastward down into South Central Canada, into North and South Dakota, and into the Northern Upper Midwest Region. Moderate density smoke is being observed throughout most of Alberta Province, Northwestern Canada, South Central Canada, the High Plains, the Midwest, Ontario, and into Upstate New York. Light density smoke has been observed throughout most of Northwestern Canada, South Central Canada, the Plains, Midwest, the Southern Great Lakes region, Northern New England and progressing into far Southeastern Canada. The smoke is expected to continue to progress South and East over the day.”

Wildfire smoke map for North America

wildfire smoke map North America may 28 2019
The distribution of smoke from wildfires in North America, May 28, 2019. Click to enlarge.

The air quality in the town of High Level, Alberta has reached dangerous levels.

Resources for learning about effects of exposure to wildland fire smoke

wildland fire smoke exposure
Cover of USFS publication.

Last week the Northern Rockies Fire Science Network conducted a live webinar titled,  “Smoke Exposure Health Effects and Mitigations for Wildland Fire Personnel: Current Research and Recommendations.” The one-hour presentation was very informative and heavily emphasized how smoke from burning vegetation can be hazardous to your health, especially for firefighters. Below is the recorded version, and following that is a list of resources identified in the webinar that provide more information about the effects of wildland fire smoke. I suggest that firefighters make the video a part of their annual refresher training.

We have written dozens of times about smoke and the research efforts directed toward evaluating the effects on humans. Articles that describe the effects are all tagged “smoke & health” on Wildfire Today. At this writing there are 17 of them. This article is the 18th.

In addition to those resources, here are others that were listed in last week’s webinar. Where possible, we downloaded them to the Wildfire Today web site in order to preserve the documents.

Researchers compare smoke emissions from prescribed and wild fires

DC-10 drop North Park Fire
A DC-10 comes out of the smoke dropping retardant on the North Park Fire in Southern California, October 12, 2018. Screen grab from @ABC7Leticia video.

Four researchers, in a study funded by the U.S. Forest Service, evaluated data collected in 25 previous studies to compare exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5) created by prescribed fires and wildfires. The authors were Kathleen Navarro, Don Schweizer, John Balmes, and Ricardo Cisneros. Titled, A Review of Community Smoke Exposure from Wildfire Compared to Prescribed Fire in the United States, it is published under Open Access guidelines.

Below are excerpts from the study — the abstract and conclusions. And, information about a March 21 webinar featuring Ms. Navarro about the health effects of vegetation smoke.


Abstract

Prescribed fire, intentionally ignited low-intensity fires, and managed wildfires — wildfires that are allowed to burn for land management benefit-could be used as a land management tool to create forests that are resilient to wildland fire. This could lead to fewer large catastrophic wildfires in the future. However, we must consider the public health impacts of the smoke that is emitted from wildland and prescribed fire.

The objective of this synthesis is to examine the differences in ambient community-level exposures to particulate matter (PM2.5) from smoke in the United States in relation to two smoke exposure scenarios-wildfire fire and prescribed fire. A systematic search was conducted to identify scientific papers to be included in this review. TheWeb of Science Core Collection and PubMed, for scientific papers, and Google Scholar were used to identify any grey literature or reports to be included in this review. Sixteen studies that examined particulate matter exposure from smoke were identified for this synthesis — nine wildland fire studies and seven prescribed fire studies. PM2.5 concentrations from wildfire smoke were found to be significantly lower than reported PM2.5 concentrations from prescribed fire smoke.

Wildfire studies focused on assessing air quality impacts to communities that were nearby fires and urban centers that were far from wildfires. However, the prescribed fire studies used air monitoring methods that focused on characterizing exposures and emissions directly from, and next to, the burns.

This review highlights a need for a better understanding of wildfire smoke impact over the landscape. It is essential for properly assessing population exposure to smoke from different fire types.

Conclusions

Destructive wildfires have higher rates of biomass consumption and have greater potential to expose more people to smoke than prescribed fires. Naturally ignited fires that are allowed to self-regulate can provide the best scenario for ecosystem health and long-term air quality. Generally, prescribed fire smoke is much more localized, and the smoke plumes tend to stay within the canopy, which absorbs some of the pollutants, reducing smoke exposure. Land managers want to utilize prescribed fire as a land management tool to restore fire-adapted landscapes. Thus, additional work is needed to understand the differences in exposures and public health impacts of smoke of prescribedfire compared to wildfire. One way to do this would be for managers to collaborate with air quality departments (internal to agency or external) to monitor PM2.5 concentrations in communities near a prescribed fire.

Consistent monitoring strategies for all wildland fires, whether prescribed or naturally occurring, are needed to allow the most robust comparative analysis. Currently, prescribed fire monitoring is often focused on capturing the area of highest impact or characterizing fire emissions, while wildfire monitoring often relies on urban monitors supplemented by temporary monitoring of communities of concern. A better understanding of smoke impact over the landscape and related impacts is essential for properly assessing population exposure to smoke from different fire types.

(end of excerpt)


In a webinar March 21 at 11 a.m. CDT, Ms. Navarro will describe information from a different smoke study. She will present on a recent Joint Fire Science Program study estimating the lifetime risk of lung cancer and cardiovascular disease from exposure to particulate matter (PM) from smoke. This analysis combined measured PM exposures on wildfires, estimated wildland firefighter breathing rates, and an exposure disease relationship for PM to estimate mortality of lung cancer and cardiovascular disease mortality from lifetime exposure to PM.

Breathing wildfire smoke can be similar to smoking up to two packs of cigarettes a day

Research shows its worse than we thought

bird dog airplane fire smoke wildfire
A Canadian bird dog airplane disappears into smoke over the Highland Fire in South Dakota, July 1, 2012. Photo by Bill Gabbert.

According to a researcher with the University of Alberta, breathing smoke from a wildfire can be equivalent to smoking up to two packs of cigarettes a day, depending on the density.

Accumulating over time, smoke particles trapped in the lungs can cause “all kinds of problems,” Mike Flannigan of the university’s Department of Renewable Resources told the Associated Press. “The more we learn about smoke and health, the more we are finding out it is bad for us, which isn’t a surprise but it’s worse than we thought.”

The AP reported that Mr. Flannagin was scheduled to make a presentation at the British Columbia Lung Association’s annual workshop on air quality and health on February 6, 2019.

Smoke creates record high pollution levels in California cities

The Camp Fire continues to affect air quality

smoke pollution particulates record California cities
Records show a large increase in particulates in some California cities after the Camp and Woolsey Fires started on November 8, 2018. Via @RARohde. Click to enlarge.

Areas in Northern California have been suffering through unprecedented air pollution since the Camp Fire started November 8 east of Chico. Sacramento, San Francisco, and Stockton have all recorded record high levels.

The animation below shows the predicted wind direction for Northern California at 9 a.m. PST November 19, 2018. If accurate, the wind could bring smoke from the Camp Fire, which is just east of Chico, down into the Sacramento Valley, the Bay Area, and the Central Valley on Monday. This condition should reverse Tuesday through Friday with the smoke being pushed to the north away from San Francisco, but Saturday could again bring wind and smoke from the north if the Camp Fire is still active.

On Sunday and Sunday night the Camp Fire was active on the east side and will likely produce a significant amount of smoke Monday. But Wednesday through Friday should bring copious amounts of rain to the fire area, perhaps more than two inches, which will definitely inhibit the production of smoke and slow the spread of the fire — at least.

The fatality count on the Camp Fire rose again Sunday as search teams found another set of human remains to bring the total loss of life to 77, with 993 unaccounted for. The current tally for the number of homes destroyed is 11,990, and acres burned, 151,000. The number of commercial structures burned rose from 367 to 472.

wildfire smoke forecast map
The forecast for the distribution of wildfire smoke at 2 p.m. PST November 19, 2018. NOAA.