Forecast for smoke from Arizona’s Tussock Fire

Tussock Fire smoke plume May 10
Tussock Fire predicted smoke plume. May 10. Arizona Department of Environmental Quality.

The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality expects that smoke from the Tussock Fire will generally disperse to the east Monday and Tuesday. The fire is 27 air miles northwest of the northern Phoenix suburbs.

Below is their prediction issued at 9:47 a.m. on Monday May 10, 2021:

“[Monday] is expected to be another windy day, with south-southwest winds in the 10-20 mph range. Smoke is forecast to rise and disperse toward the east-northeast. Smoke may move over Camp Verde, Payson, and Winslow; however, smoke is expected to be elevated off the ground. Some smoke may drop down the backside of the Bradshaws Mountains this afternoon and into Bumble Bee, Cordes Lakes, Cleator, and Mayer, but impacts are expected to be short-lived.

“[Tuesday], as high pressure builds into the region, smoke is forecast to rise and disperse toward the east-southeast, with some smoke moving over the far north portion of the Phoenix Valley. This smoke is expected to be elevated well off the ground, so not forecasting any smoke impacts to the Valley. With that said, Anthem, New River, and Cave Creek may briefly smell smoke, especially in the late evening on Tuesday.”

The forecast below for Arizona is for 6 p.m. MDT May 10, 2021, produced by NOAA.

Smoke Forecast, 6 p.m. MDT May 10, 2021 Arizona Tussock Fire
Smoke Forecast for Arizona, 6 p.m. MDT May 10, 2021. NOAA.

Tussock Fire burns thousands of acres southwest of Crown King, Arizona

12 miles northwest of Lake Pleasant

Updated at 11:49 a.m. MDT May 10, 2021

The Type 1 Incident Management Team that assumed command of the Tussock Fire southwest of Crown King, Arizona at 6 a.m. Monday  provided additional information, confirming the fire was still mapped at 3,500 acres.

(Click here to see which areas will be affected by smoke from the fire on Monday and Tuesday.)

“The fire actively moved up hill yesterday with the dry windy conditions,” the update said. “Challenges the team will be assessing include the rugged topography and the alignment of drainages combined with anticipated weather. Additional resources and personnel are arriving to assist with the firefighting effort.”

Approximately 226 personnel are assigned to the fire.


Updated 9:17 a.m. MDT May 10, 2021

Tussock Fire map
Tussock Fire map. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 4:18 a.m. MDT May 10, 2021. The red line was the perimeter at 9:22 a.m. MDT May 9, 2021.

The Incident Management Team (IMT) on the Tussock Fire five miles southwest of Crown King, Arizona is not releasing much information. At 11:35 p.m. on May 9 evacuations were in effect for Minnehaha, Fort Misery, and Horse Thief Basin. Crown King is now at SET and residents should begin preparing in the event an evacuation order is issued.

The map above shows the proximity to Crown King; scroll down to see maps showing broader areas.

Sunday night the IMT reported that no structures were immediately threatened at that time and the fire had burned 3,500 acres.

Tussock, fire history
Wildfire history in the vicinity of the 2021 Tussock Fire.
The Southwest Area Type 1 IMT #2 with Incident Commander Dave Bales was expected to assume command of the fire at 6 a.m. Monday, May 10.

 


1:15 p.m. MDT May 9, 2021

Map of the Tussock Fire
Map of the Tussock Fire at 9:22 a.m. MDT May 9, 2021.

Since the Tussock Fire started during the afternoon of May 8, it has burned 2,448 acres 6 miles southwest of Crown King, Arizona and has spread onto the Prescott National Forest. Due to very dry fuel and weather conditions a Type 1 Incident Management Team has been ordered to assist with management of the incident.

The fire is between Phoenix and Prescott, 27 air miles northwest of the suburbs of Phoenix. (See the map above)

Tussock Fire, satellite photo
Tussock Fire, satellite photo at 1241 p.m. MDT May 9, 2021. NASA.
Tussock Fire
Tussock Fire. Posted May 9, 2021 by BLM
Tussock Fire
Tussock Fire. Posted May 9, 2021 by BLM