Monday the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October, 2013.
As you probably know, fire activity is high right now in Arizona and New Mexico. Here is NIFC’s prediction for July in the Southwest:
Significant wildland fire potential will remain above normal across much of Arizona and northwestern New Mexico in early July and slowly return to normal across the Area from east to west as the monsoon develops. The Area will remain normal from August through October.
July will bring an end to the typical fire season weather pattern and begin the transitions to a monsoonal pattern. In July, upper level high pressure will be in place over the Great Basin to begin the month which will allow most areas east of the divide to moisten up with higher humidity and areas of scattered wet storms during the first week of July. Moisture will lead to more lightning potential into Arizona during the first week or so of July until the upper high eventually settles far enough north and east to allow moisture intrusion through all of Arizona. As usual, moisture will develop from east to
west leaving northern and northwestern Arizona the last to return to normal around mid-July or shortly thereafter.
Almost of the western United States, except for Washington and the northern Rockies, is experiencing “moderate” to “exceptional” drought, according to the Drought Monitor released June 27, 2013.
The National Weather Service still has not fixed their web site that shows Red Flag Warnings, so we are again substituting this image from today’s NWS Fire Weather Outlook page.
The “DRY-TSTMs” indicated on the map mean there is a possibility for thunderstorms with lightning but little or no rain, creating the possibility for multiple new wildfires in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.
One of the Predictive Services offices issued a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory for southern California. In this new one, most of Northern California has been temporarily removed due to the unseasonably cool and wet weather pattern. With the forecast for the weather pattern to make a dramatic change mid-week with strong high pressure developing over California for rapid drying/warming into the weekend, they anticipate Northern CA will once again warrant an advisory in the next 1-2 weeks.
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“Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory Southern California
June 25, 2013
Subject: Low live and dead fuel moistures, along with persistent drought have created the potential for active to extreme fire behavior in Southern California.
Discussion:All of California is experiencing drought conditions. Effects of lower than normal live and dead fuel moistures and observed fire behavior for 2013 are the focus of this advisory. Note that most of Northern CA was included in the previous advisory but has been temporarily removed due to forecasted widespread wetting rain. It is anticipated that area will warrant an advisory in the next couple weeks.
Difference From Normal Conditions: Drought conditions ranging from abnormally dry to severe exist and are expected to persist or intensify. The entire area is deficient in rainfall and snow pack, resulting in fuels that are 4-8 weeks ahead of normal drying/curing rates.
Concerns to Firefighters:
Energy Release Component (ERC) values at numerous weather stations are well above normal and many are at record maximums. Expect increased fire intensity and spread rates in these areas. Early season extreme fire behavior has been observed especially in brush fuel types. Anticipate increased spread rates, spotting, and active night time burning.
The combination of persistent drought and record-low rainfall and snowpack amounts has led to very low live and dead fuel moistures. Low 1000-hour fuel moistures have been evidenced by complete consumption of dead fuels on recent fires. Live fuel moistures for Chamise have already reached critical levels of 60% or less in many areas. Expect fires to ignite easier and spread faster. Anticipate higher resistance to control in all fuel types.
Active fire behavior can extend well into the night and early morning hours even with moderate RH recovery. Already this year, Southern California has experienced large fire activity and multiple team deployments. It is important to be mindful of and manage fatigue for all resources. Everyone, every day, returns home safely.
Mitigation Measures:
Local and inbound fire personnel need to be aware that fire behavior is exceeding normal expectations for this time of the year. Local briefings need to be thorough and highlight specific fire environment conditions. These include but are not limited to local weather forecasts, Pocket Cards, ERC’s, live and dead fuel moistures, and special fuel conditions such as mortality, Sudden Oak Death and frost killed brush, etc.
Suppression actions need to be based on good anchor points, escape routes, and safety zones. Remember LCES. Experienced lookouts are essential under these conditions.
Base all actions on current and expected behavior of the fire. Augment initial attack resources as incident activity dictates.
Review the most current Southern California 7-day Significant Fire Potential along with Daily, Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks at: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm
Area of Concern:The area of concern is the Southern California geographic area with the exception of 4 PSA’s: Central Valley, Central Mojave, Eastern Desert, and Lower Deserts. A map showing the areas of concern described in this advisory can be found at: National Fuel Advisories
Issued: June 25, 2013 (Note this advisory will be in effect for 14 days and will be reviewed/updated at that time.)”
Red Flag Warnings, June 22. 2013 (click to enlarge)
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches for enhanced wildfire danger have been issued by the National Weather Service for areas in Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, Utah, Arizona, and Nevada.
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The Red Flag Warning map above was current as of 11:50 a.m. MDT on Saturday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
The Rocky Mountain Geographic Area and the Upper Colorado River Fire Management Unit on the Colorado Western Slope issued two Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisories today. Below are the complete texts of both:
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“Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory Western Slope of Colorado
06/21/2013
Subject: Western Colorado is in the third year of drought. The situation is predicted to persist or intensify through July. There is increased risk of large fire development and intense fire behavior. Dry, heavy fuels at higher elevations could pose a greater risk of active fire behavior.
Discussion: The wet spring pattern that occurred during April and May has provided a brief reprieve. Live and dead fuel moistures are quickly returning to a condition that will support large fire growth.
Forecasts do not offer the prospect of live or dead fuels conditions improving through July.
Difference from normal conditions: Fuels are described by fire managers as being deceptively green. The visual greenness being observed can lessen the sense of fire potential. Live fuels, which had shown some improvement from late spring precipitation, are drying. On the Western Slope of Colorado, 100FM fuels are setting historically low values for the date, nearing the 3rd percentile, and moving into the range associated with historic large fires. Long-term drying has made large, higher elevation fuels, available as well.
Concerns to Firefighters and the Public:
Recent large fires on the Front Range and Western Slope have displayed intense and/or extreme fire behavior.
Long-range spotting, fire whorls, extreme fireline intensity and high winds have been observed and will continue to be control problems on both wildland and urban interface incidents.
Local preparedness planning and cooperation should be on-going.
Management of suppression resources rest and recovery as activity increases.
Mitigation Measures: Strategies for dealing with each of the specific circumstances listed above include using Predictive Service¡¦s forecasts of higher potential for large fire occurrence, rapid initial attack in those high risk areas, and daily fire and fuels briefings to suppression personnel. Continue reading “Two fuels and fire behavior advisories for Colorado”
