Tag: weather

3:49 p.m. MDT Oct. 5, 2021

An updated forecast for wildland fire potential for the next four months was issued October 5 by the National Interagency Fire Center. If their predictions are correct:

• October: The potential in Southern California will be below average through January; Northern California and parts of Idaho and Montana will be above average in October, while the Mid-South will be below average.
• November: Northern California will remain above average along with Central Texas, Central Oklahoma and parts of the East Coast;
• December: Central Texas, Central Oklahoma and parts of the East Coast will be above average.
• January: Central Texas, Central Oklahoma, most of Florida, and the southern portions of Alabama and Georgia will be above normal.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

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“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of CONUS into winter with temperatures likely closer to normal in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and into the western Great Lakes. Above normal precipitation is likely across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies through fall with below normal precipitation likely for the southern half of the West and the southern and central Plains. The Southeast is forecast to have below normal precipitation through fall, but portions of the region could be susceptible to heavy rainfall events.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to continue into October for southwest Montana and eastern Montana into western North Dakota as these areas have missed the heavier precipitation in September. Western slopes of the northern Sierra through the Sacramento Valley to the Coast Ranges from the Bay Area to Ukiah, CA are forecast to have above normal potential through November, with leeside locations in Hawaii likely to have above normal significant fire potential into November as well. Portions of Oklahoma, Texas, and the eastern Carolinas into Florida are likely to have above normal significant fire potential this fall into winter, with portions of the Mid-Atlantic forecast to have above normal potential in November and December. All other areas are likely to have near normal significant fire potential or are out of fire season through January.”

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Continue reading “October wildfire potential to remain high in Montana, Northern California, and the Carolinas”

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued September 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that the potential for wildfires in Northern California will be above normal September through November. Northern Minnesota and the northwest one-quarter of the country  will also be above normal in September. Hawaii and Wyoming could be busy in September and October. The southeast Atlantic coast states may experience above normal fire activity in October and November, but December looks to be pretty average in all 50 states.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
  

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“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of CONUS through fall. Wetter than average conditions are likely across western Washington for the fall with below normal precipitation likely across the Southwest, Great Basin, central Rockies, and much of the Plains. The Southeast is forecast to have near normal precipitation through October but turn drier in late fall and early winter.

“Much of Southern Area and areas south of the Ohio River are likely to have below normal significant fire potential in September, but much of the southeast US and Mid-Atlantic is forecast to have above normal fire potential in October and November. Normal significant fire potential is forecast for Alaska along with most of Eastern Area through the period. The entire US is forecast to have normal fire potential in December.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to continue for September across much of the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas. Most of these areas will return to normal fire potential in October and November except for portions of Wyoming, northwest Colorado, and the Black Hills, which will remain above normal into October. Much of northern California is forecast to have above normal potential through November with leeside locations in Hawaii likely to have above normal significant fire potential into October.”

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Continue reading “Wildfire potential in September expected to remain above normal in parts of the Northwest”

As we enter what are usually two of the busiest months of the wildland fire season in the West, the forecast for wildland fire potential issued July 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that California and virtually the entire northwest one-quarter of the United States will have above normal fire potential in July and August.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
  

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“Drought expanded and intensified over the West with more than 90% of the West now in drought. More than half of the West is in the highest two categories of drought. Numerous all-time record high temperatures were set in the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies at the end of June as part of a historical heat wave. The first surge of monsoonal moisture arrived in the Southwest, Colorado, and southern Great Basin during the last few days of June.

“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of the CONUS, especially the West, through summer. Much of the Rockies and the northern half of the West are also likely to have drier than normal conditions through September. Near normal precipitation is likely with the Southwest Monsoon in July, which should help alleviate drought conditions and significant fire activity, but drought is likely to expand and intensify across much of the West through the summer.

“Much of the Southern Area is likely to have below normal significant fire potential through the summer with mostly near normal significant fire potential in Eastern Area and Alaska into fall. Above normal significant fire potential is likely to remain in portions of northern Minnesota into August.

“Above normal significant fire potential will expand northward into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas through August with areas closer to the monsoon likely returning to near normal significant fire potential in July and August. Most of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and northern Great Basin are expected to have above normal significant fire potential in July and August with areas beginning to return to normal significant fire potential in September and October. Most of the mountains and foothills in California are forecast to have above normal significant fire potential through September with areas prone to offshore winds retaining above normal potential through October. Leeside locations, saddles, and divides in Hawaii are likely to have above normal significant fire potential into October.”

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