Tag: Yarnell Fire

John N. Maclean and Holly Neill sent us some updated information about their quest to ferret out details about what happened on the Yarnell Hill Fire the day 19 members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots were killed outside of Yarnell, Arizona, June 30, 2013. The text below builds on their previous information that we published here and here.

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“The discussion about what actually was said by members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots and others in the final minutes before the fatalities on the Yarnell Hill Fire has sometimes been instructive. But the online discussion is missing the larger picture.

The radio transmissions uncovered in the background by Holly Neill conclusively show that the hotshots were communicating extensively, and not just among themselves, during the critical period from just after 1600 hours until the end. There was no substantial gap in communications, one of the several allegations used in effect to discredit the decision making and actions of the hotshots, and in particular of their superintendent, Eric Marsh. On the contrary, Marsh’s voice can be heard — and has been authenticated by those who knew him — making several radio transmissions during the crucial time. Perhaps the person or persons to whom Marsh was speaking in several of those transmissions could come forward: there is no mention of these conversations in any of the interviews with participants.

What the background communications do not show, at least not so far, is any formal communication by Marsh or anyone else explaining why the hotshots left the ridge and headed down into what became known as deployment valley. The background transmissions also do not disclose, at least so far, any direct order to the hotshots to go down to Yarnell and engage in structure protection.

Put in context, however, the background transmissions add a great deal to the picture of what happened, and what likely happened, during those final minutes. Obsessing about a single word, “house,” is appropriate up to a point. That’s the word Holly and I and many others hear in that one of several conversations we disclosed; it is not the word everyone hears. It would be best, perhaps, if investigators for the Arizona Department of Occupational Safety and Health, who are well alerted to the background communications, could have the recordings analyzed by some outside audio expert and themselves make a report. Meanwhile, a consideration of those transmissions should not be restricted to the credibility of one word, with everything hanging on that, but rather should look at what all the communications say about what happened, because they add new, contrary, and vital information to the picture of those events.”

Holly Neill and John N. Maclean compiled and sent to us the detailed information about the Yarnell Hill Fire videos in which they found the radio conversations that they referenced in their analysis that we published January 19. In the videos, fragments of radio conversations can be heard from nearby radios as various people shot the videos. The words are difficult to decipher, as they just happened to be in the range of the video camera’s microphone, in the background, but they were not specifically planned to be recorded.

The videos were shot at the Yarnell Hill Fire on June 30, 2013 near Yarnell, Arizona. Nineteen members of the Granite Mountain Hotshot crew were entrapped and killed on the fire. These recordings, along with other investigatory data, may shed a little light on the circumstances surrounding that tragic event.

Information regarding how Holly and John developed their analysis is in another article, The Yarnell Hill Fire recordings — the back story.

As we promised on January 20, we are providing information about the sources of the data below. As far as we know, the first one is not in a public location on the internet, but many people have the Freedom of Information Act files, so perhaps soon it also will be available to everyone, if it is not already. We discovered today that Items 2 through 4 were uploaded to YouTube by Elizabeth Nowicki between January 1 and January 20 and are embedded below. We thank Ms. Nowicki for posting the files.

1. “DivA-Ops Musser”:

SAIT Investigation Record:AO5-20130630: AerialFirefightingStudyPhotosVideos F: PhotosAndVideos: Panebaker:Video:20130630_154232_fire_behavior_EP.MOV

2. “Marsh talking to Abel about making his way off the top”:

SAIT Investigation Record: F: PhotosAndVideos:A2520130630RobertCaldwellVideos:RobertCaldwell_IMG_0749_2389

*This video was posted by EN on You Tube on Jan 1, 2014.

3. “Marsh at house”:

SAIT Investigation Record:AO5-20130630: AerialFirefightingStudyPhotosVideos F:PhotosAndVideos: Panebaker:Videos:20130630_161620_VLAT_SPLIT_1_EP_MOV

*This video was posted by EN on You Tube @1700 on 1-20-14.

4. “Coming from the heel of the fire”:

SAIT Investigation Record: F: PhotosAndVideos:AO8-20130630BlueRidgeHotshotPhotosVideos: Yarnell_Gamble

*This video was posted by EN on You Tube on Jan 2, 2014.

The article below by Holly Neill and John N. Maclean provides the background story of how they developed the information that we reported January 19 about the Yarnell Hill Fire and the location of Eric Marsh. The Granite Mountain Hotshot crew, 19 wildland firefighters, became entrapped and were killed while fighting the fire near Yarnell, Arizona on June 30, 2013.

While Holly and John are not equipped to upload and store huge video files online, others are doing so. Tomorrow, we will provide on Wildfire Today the video file names and folder locations in the Serious Accident Investigation Team record where the videos we refer to are located.

(UPDATE, January 21: today we published an article containing information about sources of Holly and John’s information: Sources for the Neill/Maclean Yarnell Hill Fire analysis )

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A Note About the Accuracy of the Marsh Tapes

By Holly Neill and John N. Maclean

Our story about the previously undisclosed radio transmissions by Eric Marsh, superintendent of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, has caused a surge of interest on this site and elsewhere. Out of respect for the seriousness of most of that interest, here is a short account of how the transmissions were found and what attempts were made to verify them before we published them on the Wildfiretoday.com site.

Holly Neill made a public records request through the Arizona State Forestry Department on October 31; this was a specific request for the Aerial Retardant Study Videos that were filmed during the Yarnell Hill Fire. Holly thought that these audio-visual records, documenting the use aerial retardant on the fire, might reveal important information – if only by recording background conversations. She received these records, which are voluminous, on December 16. (Holly and John also requested and received the broader data package, the material from the Serious Accident Investigation Report, which includes the retardant study and much other material.)

Within a few days, she discovered the most significant transmission that we’ve reported, in which Marsh says he is at “the house where we’re going to jump out at.” The remaining audio conversations were transcribed and put together in a timeline from 1542 hrs to 1630 hrs.

Holly then took the “house we’re going to jump out at” recording to a professional audio company, who cleaned the audio file, and then cleaned it again with an audio program. The quotes can be heard without this treatment, but they are clearer after treatment. Holly’s husband Wayne and John both listened to the transmission and agreed on what was heard, which was reproduced in yesterday’s story. Outsiders, with a professional interest in the fire, also listened and did not dispute the transcript.

We then faced a decision about what to do next.

Holly wanted to pass along the material to the Granite Mountain Hotshot families before it went to anyone else. She did so on December 21, to the one family with whom she has direct contact.

On January 6 Holly provided the audio information to the Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health and their investigators, Wildland Fire Associates. The state agency is conducting further studies, which will take time.

We waited a while longer, but ultimately decided that the findings, which come from public documents, should be made public.

This may seem like, and is, a convoluted explanation. But the interest level in this story is high and questions have been raised about our methodology. We used public documents, took our time, and did our own work.

 

New examinations of recordings of radio transmissions on the Yarnell Hill Fire have provided previously unknown information about the location of Eric Marsh during the hour before 19 members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, including Mr. Marsh, were entrapped and killed on the fire, June 30, 2013. Mr. Marsh was the Superintendent of the crew, but was serving as Division Supervisor of the area of the fire that day on which the crew was working.

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Was Eric Marsh at the Ranch When the Hotshots Headed Down the Hill?

By Holly Neill and John N. Maclean

A series of previously undisclosed radio transmissions by Eric Marsh, superintendent of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, show that he communicated regularly with supervisors about his crew’s position – and that of his own – on the Yarnell Hill Fire as they moved in their final minutes toward a ranch that had been previously identified as a safety zone.

Contrary to assertions in the Serious Accident Investigation Report and elsewhere, and just minutes before the crew was entrapped, Marsh told incident supervisors “I’m at the house” and that his crew was “coming down from the heel of the fire.” Marsh’s radio transmissions that placed him at the house (presumably the Boulder Springs Ranch where the crew was heading), upset official and unofficial notions of where Marsh was and what he was doing.

The radio communications, although muffled and difficult to make out, can be heard in the background on several audio/video recordings of pilot radio transmissions during the fire – radio communications that were publicly released in December by the Arizona State Forestry Division. The documents were included in the records of the Serious Accident Investigation Team (SAIT), which produced a report in September of 2013. Those documents were then passed along to the Arizona Department of Occupational Safety and Health (ADOSH), which issued a separate report in December.

In those reports, though, there is no mention of at least two recently discovered conversations, including the one in which Marsh said he was at the ranch house. Holly Neill, a retired wildland firefighter with 12 seasons of experience, has been researching the Yarnell Hill Fire; she discovered the conversations while going over the SAIT investigation records.

The conversations are being disclosed on WildFireToday.com to facilitate the ongoing investigation into the fire and the deaths of Marsh and 18 other members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots. A transcript and identifying notes about the conversations have been turned over to ADOSH.

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Several voices can be heard on the recordings, some of which are identifiable and some of which are not. Marsh has a distinctive voice, soft and slow, and it is reasonably certain that the transmissions below are correctly attributed to him. ADOSH officials are currently studying the recordings to make their own evaluation.

The transmissions occur between 3:42 p.m. and 4:30 p.m. on June 30, 2013. The last known radio transmission from the doomed hotshots occurred at 4:42 p.m. when Marsh confirmed that he was with the hotshots and that they were deploying fire shelters.

The first communication at 3:42 p.m. is brief.

“Division Alpha, Operations Musser,” indicates that Musser called Marsh on the radio. This may be part of an exchange referred to in the ADOSH report, which indicates that sometime between 3:45 and 4:00, Musser requested that Granite Mountain IHC send some resources down to Yarnell – and that the hotshots refused this request.

The second communication at roughly 3:50 p.m. was alluded to in later reports, but the full quote, which adds the promise of air support, was not reported. This conversation indicates that Todd Abel, IMT operations chief, knew that Marsh was making his way down first, ahead of the crew. Abel advises that the crew should hunker and be safe in the meantime. Abel says in SAIT interview notes that he does not remember the exchange.

Marsh:  “I’m trying to work my way off the top.”

Todd Abel, operations section chief:  “Okay copy, just keep me updated, uh you know, you guys hunker and be safe and then we’ll get some air support down there ASAP.”

The third communication involved several voices and occurred at 4:13 p.m., about 13 minutes later. Someone says the hotshots are “working their way down into the structures,” indicating that it may have been understood that they were heading for Yarnell to take part in structure protection – it has never been confirmed as fact that the hotshots intended to help protect homes. If indeed Marsh was at or near the Boulder Springs Ranch, then he could have been acting as lookout and could have flagged the route down to the ranch for his crew. Marsh has been accused of failing to post a lookout during the crucial minutes and failing to mark, time, or improve the descent route for his crew.

Voice 1: Division Alpha, what’s your status right now?

Marsh:  Ah the guys, ah Granite, is making their way down the escape route from this morning. It’s south, mid-slope, cut vertical.”

Voice 2: “Copy, working their way down into the structures.”

Voice 1:  “ … on the escape route with Granite Mountain right now?”

Marsh:  “Nah I’m at the house where we’re gonna jump out at.”

It is likely that Marsh first led a team of sawyers down behind him to improve the route by using a vertical cut-and-slash technique to open up a downhill path. A photo by Granite Mountain IHC crewmember Christopher MacKenzie shows a team of sawyers mobilized and moving south at 3:52. The other crewmembers leave at approximately 4:04 p.m.

The final transmission, at 4:30 p.m., is an exchange apparently between Marsh and someone who is fully aware that the hotshots are coming down off the ridge – and that time is of the essence.

First Voice:  “Copy … coming down and appreciate if you could go a little faster but you’re the supervisor.”

Marsh: “Ah, they’re coming from the heel of the fire … ”

Taken together, these audio transmissions undermine several of the findings and conclusions of the two official fire reports. The SAIT report describes a “gap” in communications by the Granite Mountain Hotshots during 33 crucial minutes, between 4:04 and 4:37 p.m. But two of the recently discovered transmissions occurred during that time.

There is no 33-minute gap.

What has not been discovered thus far is a formal declaration by Marsh that he and his crew were leaving the heel of the fire and heading for the Boulder Springs Ranch – nor has there been found any order to them to do so.

A great deal of miscommunication on the Yarnell Hill Fire has been previously documented, some of it involving the Granite Mountain Hotshots. The newly discovered radio transmissions, though, add to the big picture of what happened. Useful and informative as they may be, they do not answer the remaining questions that still swirl around what happened to the Granite Mountain Hotshots on last summer’s Yarnell Hill Fire.

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Regular readers of Wildfire Today will recognize John N. Maclean as the author of “Fire on the Mountain” and “The Esperanza Fire”. Holly Neill, a retired wildland firefighter with 12 seasons experience, has been researching the Yarnell Hill Fire virtually from the day of the fatalities last June 30. She spent six seasons with the National Park Service as a GS-04 engine crew and helitack crew member and GS-05 National Park Service Fire Use Module member. She then put in six seasons as a contractor with the US Forest Service, as a Faller B on a saw team and Incident Command Post radio operator. Neill has made several trips to the scene of the Yarnell Hill Fire and has been working as a research partner with John N. Maclean.