The firefighter who died Monday while working on a wildfire southeast of Eugene, Oregon has been identified as 56-year old Frumencio Ruiz Carapia of Medford.
Mr. Carapia was working on the Gales Fire when he was struck by a falling tree, according to a news release Tuesday from Lane County Sheriff’s Sgt. Tom Speldrich.
Despite immediate efforts by those around him, Ruiz Carapia died at the scene, the news release said. No other injuries were reported.
The 14,000-acre Gales Fire is part of the Middle Fork Complex of fires. Personnel across the complex shared a moment of silence Tuesday morning in his memory.
Mr. Carapia was a member of a contract Type 2 Initial Attack hand crew. Two other firefighters who were injured were treated at the scene.
“The wildland firefighting community and our partners mourn this loss,” said Incident Commander Brian Gales of Northwest 13 Incident Management Team. “Our thoughts and prayers are with his family.”
A preliminary investigation showed the accident wasn’t the result of any tree cutting but that the tree unexpectedly snapped and fell to the ground, according to the sheriff’s office.
After his death Monday first responders formed a procession in the firefighter’s honor as his body, wrapped in an American flag, was wheeled past them before being prepared for transport back home.
U.S. Senator Ron Wyden put out a statement regarding Ruiz Carapia’s death on Tuesday evening:
“A sad reminder about the dangers that firefighters face to protect all of us here in Oregon. My deepest condolences to the family, friends and loved ones of Mr. Carapia.”
We send out our sincere condolences to the family, friends, and co-workers of Mr. Carapia.
Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Al and others.
Drought — fuel moisture — energy release component
Observed precipitation during the 30 days before August 23, 2021.
There are a number of ways to analyze the behavior of wildland fires using data that is easily available. The amount of moisture in the live and dead vegetation is a critical factor in determining how readily it will burn, because it has to be cooked off before the grass, brush, or woody vegetation will vigorously combust.
The amount of precipitation over days, weeks, months, and years affects how wildfires burn. The map above depicts precipitation during the 30-day period ending August 23, 2021.
The Drought Monitor is one way of using an index to express how the precipitation compares to normal for an area. As you can see below most of California is in either Exceptional Drought (the highest level of drought) or Extreme Drought. The only areas in California that are not, are a tiny sliver in the extreme northwest corner, and the five southernmost counties. Both drought categories can also be found in areas of Oregon and Idaho which I will get to later.
Extended drought lowers the moisture content of both live and dead vegetation. When that occurs, it takes less energy out of a fire to cook off the moisture, and that energy instead goes toward enhanced combustion of the material and then preheating and igniting nearby vegetation, resulting in faster spread of the fire.
The observed precipitation map at the top of the page shows that most of California received less than 1/10 inch in the 30-day period. This, and the multi-year drought has led to the 1,000-hour time-lag fuels, woody material 3 to six inches in diameter, being extremely dry. Fuel monitoring stations in the foothills of the Sacramento Valley and the Northern Sierras are finding moisture levels lower than kiln-dried lumber, which is usually 8 to 12 percent. Both stations recently have been recording levels around 6 percent, which is near and sometimes below the lowest levels ever recorded for the date (the red lines on the charts). The Incident Management Team on the Caldor Fire said the 1,000-hour fuels are at three percent moisture.
In these charts, “Min” is the historic minimum for the date. “Max” is the historic maximum for the date.
Knowing the moisture content of the fuel is an ingredient in determining another index, the Energy Release Component (ERC) which can help predict the intensity and rate of spread of a fire. It is defined as a number related to the available energy (BTU) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. The ERC is considered a composite fuel moisture index as it reflects the contribution of all live and dead fuels to potential fire intensity. As live fuels cure and dead fuels dry, the ERC will increase and can be described as a build-up index. The ERC has memory. Each daily calculation considers the past 7 days in calculating the new number. Daily variations of the ERC are relatively small as wind is not part of the calculation.
Since mid-May the ERCs at two locations in Northern California have been flirting with the historic daily highs, either slightly above or slightly below. This is consistent with the observed fire activity this year on several large fires in the northern part of the state. The Dixie Fire is closing in on three-quarters of a million acres, and the Caldor Fire in nine days has blackened 117,000 acres. Fire Behavior Analysts at the fires are describing historically low fuel moistures.
Here is an excerpt from the recent Fuel Model Summary for the Caldor Fire:
There is a heavy dead and down component with drought-stressed fuels. Live fuels are cured to levels normally seen in late September, and fuels are extremely receptive to spotting. Fuel moistures are historically low. Northern California remains under a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory. ERC’s are above the 97th percentile. 100 hr and 1000hr fuels are below the 3rd percentile.
These fires are primarily fuel-driven. They are burning very well with gentle breezes. When the wind increases above 10 mph, they are hauling ass.
Fire history in vicinity of the Caldor Fire, 2000 through August 23, 2021.
In order for the spread of the 117,000-acre Caldor Fire to stop or to be suppressed by firefighters, something will have to change — either the weather or the fuel.
If the relative humidity stayed above 40 percent and the wind speed was less than five mph, it might lose enough intensity to allow firefighters on the ground and in the air to take direct action on the flanks. But there is no sign of that happening this week.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Caldor Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.
Let’s look at the fuel, which is the primary driver of this fire.
From the Incident Management Team:.
There is a heavy dead and down component with drought-stressed fuels. Live fuels are cured to levels normally seen in late September, and fuels are extremely receptive to spotting. Fuel moistures are historically low. Northern California remains under a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory. ERC’s are above the 97th percentile. 100 hr and 1000hr fuels are below [3 percent fuel moisture].
The predominant direction of spread has been to the northeast or east-northeast. If it continues in that direction for the next 10 miles it will not encounter the footprints of any fires that have burned in the last 21 years large enough to have a significant effect on the spread. Just beyond that distance on the north side of Highway 50 is the 2007 Angora Fire southwest of South Lake Tahoe.
North of Highway 50 four miles northeast of the location of the fire Monday night there is a large rocky area several miles across with sparse fuel. It is north of Twin Bridges and west of Fallen Leaf and could slow the fire in that location, but there’s no guarantee that it can’t find a way to burn around, through, or over it. Spot fires have been igniting a mile out in front; one was 1.8 miles.
Hazardous fuel treatments in vicinity of the Caldor Fire, 2000-2021.
Another fuel-related factor to consider is the fuel treatments that have been accomplished over the years, shown in green on the map above. The Caldor Fire has already burned across dozens, and it will be interesting to find out if they had the intended effect. There has been a great deal of fuels work in the South Lake Tahoe area.
A reduction in the volume of vegetation resulting from a fuels project in most cases is not expected to stop a high-intensity wildland fire. At best in those areas the fire may spread more slowly and perhaps throw out fewer burning embers.
But by far the best protection for structures is make them as fire resistant as possible, including the envelope of the structure itself — the roof, vents, siding, doors, windows, foundation, fences, eaves, and decks. A FEMA publication (13 MB) has excellent detailed recommendations. And in the Home Ignition Zone the NFPA and FireWise programs recommend reducing flammable material within 100 feet of structures and spacing the crowns of trees at least 18 feet apart that are within 30 feet of the home, 12 feet apart at 30 to 60 feet, and 6 feet apart at 60 to 100 feet. Another house that is 15 to 50 feet away is also fuel, and if it ignites will be a serious threat.
The LA Times (subscription) published an excellent article August 21 about rethinking forest management — the effects of logging and prescribed fire, and learning to live with fire.
455 residences, 1 school, a post office, and 2 fire stations have been destroyed
10:21 a.m. PDT August 24, 2021
Map of the Caldor Fire. The black line was the perimeter during a mapping flight at 11:17 p.m. PDT August 23, 2021. The blue line was the perimeter about 30 hours earlier. Red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 2:11 a.m. PDT August 24, 2021. Dark red areas had intense heat during the last mapping flight.
The Caldor Fire grew by about 10,000 acres Monday under the influence of a 6 mph wind gusting out of the south, southwest, and west at 8 to 15 mph while the relative humidity was in the high 20s. Most of the activity was on the southeast and northeast sides. So far crews have been able to keep it south of Highway 50 except for a spot fire near Granite Springs Road that has burned several hundred acres. During a Monday night mapping flight the fire was about two miles southwest of Sciots Camp and 14 miles southwest of Lake Tahoe.
The fire was mapped Monday night at 117,000 acres.
Monday night fire activity moderated overall, but with some small spot fires and significant terrain-driven runs on the southeast side. Humidity recovery allowed crews to engage in direct control tactics and to continue indirect line construction.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Caldor Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.
The Incident Management Team (IMT) reported Monday that in three or more days the following areas have the potential to be threatened: Silver Lake, Kit Carson, Plasse, Kirkwood, Twin Bridges, Sierra-at-Tahoe, Caples Lake, and the Lake Tahoe Basin.
Monday the IMT identified a long list of “critical resource needs” requested by today, Monday, including 330 engines, 60 hand crews, 17 Division Supervisors, and 40 other overhead personnel.
The weather forecast predicts very challenging conditions for firefighters over the next two days — strong winds Tuesday afternoon, 13 mph gusting out of the south-southwest at 20 mph, with 30 percent relative humidity and 70 degrees. Overnight the wind will slow to 6 mph from the southwest, then increase again Wednesday, 14 to 17 mph gusting up to 26 mph from the southwest with the RH in the low 20s.
This weather combined with the historically low fuel moistures could result in very significant growth of the fire Tuesday and Wednesday.
Damage inspections are in progress with approximately 40 percent of the current fire perimeter having being inspected. Crews have documented the destruction of 455 residences and 11 commercial structures. On the list of structures destroyed are one school, a church, a post office, and two fire stations (Grizzly Flats Forest Service and Pioneer Fire Dept. Station 35). PG&E currently has about 3,000 customers without power.
The El Dorado County Sheriff in collaboration with CAL FIRE has released a map displaying properties that have been inspected for any damage or that have been destroyed by the Caldor Fire.
Satellite photo showing smoke from wildfires at 5:51 p.m. PDT Aug 23, 2021.
Satellite photo showing smoke from wildfires at 5:51 p.m. PDT Aug 23, 2021.
Wildfires in Southern Oregon and Northern California continue to have a large effect on the air quality in those areas and neighboring states. The fires that are the largest producers of smoke in California are Monument, River, McCash, Antelope, Dixie, and Caldor. Several fires in Western Oregon are also contributors. After receiving rain in the last few weeks fire activity has decreased significantly in Washington, Idaho, and Montana.
Below is the forecast for wildfire smoke at 9 p.m. PDT Tuesday.
Forecast for near surface smoke at 9 p.m. PDT August 24, 2021.Air Quality at 6:48 a.m. PDT August 24, 2021. AirNow.gov
Dixie Fire map. The black line was the perimeter mapped by a fixed wing aircraft at 8:00 p.m. PDT August 22, 2021. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 3:51 a.m. PDT August 23, 2021. The dark red areas had extreme heat during the mapping flight.
The Dixie Fire was mapped Sunday evening at 725,821 acres after growing by about 4,000 acres in the previous 24 hours.
CAL FIRE has a list of changes in evacuation orders.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Dixie Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.)
Below is an update from the Incident Management Team on Monday:
“The eastern edge of the fire line towards Janesville area remains secure with crews on the ground continuing the mop up hot spots around the structures in Milford. On the southern edge above Antelope Lake, resources continue to work the fire’s edge to tie it into the Lake.
“In Genesee Valley, resources continue to mop up around structures. Firefighters are engaging the fire that has made its way down to the road as they continue to catch any spots or slops to secure it at the road. There are two spot fires on the south end of Genesee Valley. One is below the Grizzly Spot and will burn into it, the other has been contained in the creek. Today crews will work to minimize any spread moving towards homes.”
2:40 p.m. PDT August 22, 2021
Dixie Fire vicinity map, August 22, 2021
The Dixie Fire in northern California near Susanville and Chester is still very active in five areas after having grown to 721,000 acres.
Working clockwise, starting on the east side:
West of Honey Lake and Highway 395. The spot fire that started five miles in front of the main fire and ran to the highway burning about 20,000 acres, is active on its southeast side not far from the highway and near Antelope Lake. Near Milford (see the map below) the fire crossed the line Saturday and winds quickly drove the fire toward structures. Crews, equipment, and engines were in place to protect the community and minimize impacts. Assessments are ongoing. On Sunday firefighters will continue to reinforce the lines and work to minimize any additional spread toward Milford. Other very active areas:
Wilcox Valley, and the area east of Taylorsville is very active and spreading.
Northeast of Mountain Meadows Reservoir near Hamilton Mountain Road south of Highway 36.
Northwest perimeter in Lassen Volcanic National Park.
West side near Mill Creek, Fire Mountain, and Highway 36.
On Sunday firefighters expect the fire to impact the west end of the Genesee Valley toward Taylorsville, threatening many structures along Genesee Valley road.
A much milder weather pattern is expected Sunday and into the middle of next week. A very weak area of low pressure will remain off the west coast through mid-week, keeping a light southwest flow over the incident with near normal temperatures and humidity values. Moderate overnight humidity recoveries may provide opportunities for line construction and firing operations.
