The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued September 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center for September through December predicts that most of the forested areas of the western states, with the exception of Montana, will have above normal potential in September. In October and November that is expected to shift to California and the southeast.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“A continuation of peak season activity into September is expected across much of the West as drought conditions continue to take hold. Most western regions will experience areas of above normal significant large fire potential as shown on the maps to the left. By mid-month, however, the seasonal transition to fall will begin. Cold fronts brining winds but also precipitation will begin providing relief to the critically dry fuels. Fire activity will begin to diminish as fuel moistures begin to recover. As the days get shorter, overnight humidity recoveries will become greater. This will add further relief to fuels, especially the finer fuels.
“Following a brief pause in activity in California and a cessation of seasonal activity elsewhere across the West, large fire potential is expected to increase in October and November in wind prone areas across the state. The expectation of drier than average conditions and a higher probability of more frequent Foehn Wind events suggests that significant large fire potential will be elevated until winter sets in during December. The fall fire season across the East is expected to be near average but above average across much of the Southern Area due to drier than average conditions associated with a developing La Niña.”
Temperature and precipitation outlook, Sept., Oct., & Nov, 2020. Forecast made August 20, 2020.
Map of the August Complex of fires in northern California, 11:45 p.m. PDT August 31, 2020.
The massive August Complex of fires in northern California will soon exceed a quarter million acres. The Forest Service reported Tuesday morning the combined size of the fires had blackened 242,941 acres. Most of the completed fire line is on the east side, outside the Mendocino National Forest boundary, but there is also completed line on much of the south side of the Doe and Hull Fires.
The fires are southwest of Red Bluff and west of Corning, Orland, and Willows.
On Monday two large fires within the complex, the Glad and Tatham Fires, burned into and merged with the largest fire, the Doe Fire.
There were strong northeast winds on the Complex in the middle of the day Monday which increased fire activity in the area. There is a potential for the same weather and fire behavior Tuesday.
The number of resources assigned to the fire include 11 hand crews, 3 camp crews, 7 helicopters, 51 engines, 18 dozers, 25 water tenders, and 3 masticators for a total of 690 personnel. Considering the size, those numbers are not large.
August Complex of fires, August 18, 2020. InciWeb.
Diana Jones (Photo credit, Cresson Volunteer Fire Department)
A firefighter-EMT from Texas died in a vehicle accident Monday August 31 while working on a wildfire in northern California.
Fox4 News reported the deceased was “…Diana Jones, a firefighter and EMT with the Cresson Volunteer Fire Department, about 25 miles southwest of Fort Worth. Her son was also a member of the department. Each summer, they would work with a company that contracts with the federal government to respond to wildfires in western states.”
A statement from the Mendocino National Forest said two additional firefighters were involved in the accident; one is receiving medical attention for burns to their hand and arm, while the third received no injuries.
The Press Democrat reported that Ms. Jones was widowed and lived in Cresson, Texas. She had been with the Cresson Volunteer Fire Department about five years.
KQED reported Cresson Fire Chief Ron Becker said Tuesday the community was stunned by news of Ms. Jones’ death.
“We’re all numb. We’re shell-shocked. She’ll be sorely missed,” Becker said.
The firefighters were working on the Tatham Fire, part of the August Complex of fires southwest of Red Bluff, when the vehicle accident occurred.
The Cresson Volunteer Fire Department wrote on their Facebook page, “Our department is numbed by the news and we are hurting.”
“This was a tragic incident and our hearts go out to the family, friends, and colleagues of the fallen firefighter,” said Acting Forest Supervisor Sandra Moore. “Right now we are committed to providing support to those involved, while safely continuing firefighting operations.”
California Highway Patrol is currently leading the investigation. Forest Service officials, Federal Southern Area Blue Team Incident Management, and CAL FIRE Incident Management Team 4 are working to support the families, who have been notified.
The August Complex of fires has burned nearly a quarter million acres, 242,941, the Forest Service said Monday morning.
Map of the August Complex of fires in northern California, 11:45 p.m. PDT August 31, 2020.
Our sincere condolences go out to Ms. Jones’ family, friends, and co-workers.
Early last week the United States requested help from Australia and Canada in battling the wildfires in California and other states. The National Multi-Agency Coordinating Group, through the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), asked Canada for four to five 20-person hand crews and requested 55 overhead personnel from Australia.
The three 20-person crews from Quebec will be arriving in Boise Wednesday September 2. They will receive a briefing orientation and participate in fire shelter deployment training. After a one-night rest in Boise, the crews will fly to Reno, Nevada and board ground transportation to their fire assignment on the North Complex in California. The North Complex consists of numerous lightning fires being managed as one incident on the Plumas National Forest.
As for the status of the request for 55 overhead positions from down under, “Australia is on hold for now,” Ms. Cobb said. “They are assessing the need for the types of personnel being requested as our fire situation evolves.”
Australia is approaching the beginning of their 2020-2021 summer bushfire season.
From The Australian Broadcasting Corporation:
The ABC understands anyone who wants to go to California will have to pass strict health tests and age will be taken into consideration because of COVID-19.
Those who go to California will have to quarantine for two weeks when they return to Australia, which [Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council CEO Stuart] Ellis said he expected would play a role in deciding who goes.
“That needs to be factored into each (fire) commissioner’s consideration of their people’s availability,” he said.
“Not only will they be absent for the period they are in the United States, but they will also need to spend two weeks in quarantine on return to Australia.”
Queensland will not send anyone because the state is about to enter their fire season and Victoria will not assist due to the health crisis. New South Wales, the ACT, and Western Australia are considering their options.
The final decision is up to each state and territory, but Ellis said he is optimistic Australia will either meet or come close to the requested number.
California has asked for help to arrive by September 6.
It is possible that the fire authorities in Australia may be in a very awkward position. During their extraordinarily busy 2019-2020 summer bushfire season, the U.S. deployed more than 200 U.S. Forest Service and Department of the Interior wildland fire staff to the Australian Bushfire response.
Firefighters in Australia asked to travel to America could think they would be entering a more risky environment by accepting an assignment where the COVID-19 death rate is 21 times higher per 100,000 population — 2.63 in Australia compared to 56.12 in the U.S. The death rate in Canada is less than half of the U.S. rate, 24.75.
Australia and New Zealand sent 44 fire specialists to assist the United States in 2008, and 68 in 2015. They may have helped out in other years also.
Maps are a great way to communicate with a public that may be starving for information about an ongoing fire, or to inform them about conditions that could lead to more fires. They can provide information very quickly — if thoughtfully created.
The two maps below distributed by Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACC) on Twitter attempt to warn the public about the elevated danger of wildfires caused by actual or predicted lightning. I would venture a guess that the general public would have great difficulty figuring out what part of the country they represent based solely on the images. There are no state boundaries that can be easily identified and no cities or highways to make the guessing game easier. The polygons within the maps (which are not counties on the RMACC map) do not convey any worthwhile information to the casual Twitter user, only adding to the confusion.
Wet/dry thunderstorms in E/Co today; lightning activity in the RMA for the past 24 hours showed 10,714 strikes. Strikes blanketed CO, S/WY & E/KS. Western SD saw strikes across the western part of the state w/some in central SD. pic.twitter.com/6pqenkCKFn
I am a harsher critic of maps than most, having spent many fire assignments as Situation Unit Leader and Planning Section Chief, producing maps for firefighters and the public. Map making continues at Wildfire Today, producing graphics to illustrate the location of fires.
When the public sees smoke or they hear about new fires, many of them have one overriding question. Where is the fire? Unless they have property in the area, the typical person does not need to know that the fire is 300 feet west of Forest Service Road 24D3. They also don’t care about division breaks or helicopter dip sites. They need a map so they can figure out, in many cases, where the fire is in relation to them or their community. A map that is zoomed in so tight that the geographical context of the fire can’t be seen, is often not helpful to the public. A person can get oriented more easily if they can see highways and one or more cities/towns/communities. But if the incident is in a very remote area, that can be difficult.
I visited InciWeb today and found some good, bad, and ugly examples. All of the images below were large files that needed to be reduced in size to show here; the original images have more detail.
The map below of the Castle and Shotgun Fires on the Sequoia National Forest appears to be based on the standard Forest Service recreation map that forest visitors can purchase — on paper. It is shaded, which may represent vegetation and/or topography and also includes virtually every Forest Service site or feature that exists, including dirt roads. The result is clutter that unless a person has a high-resolution copy of the image and plenty of time, it is difficult or impossible to find paved roads, highways, or communities that could help a person to get oriented. At least it has a vicinity map at upper-right so we know it is in central California.
The base map used for fire public information maps should not be topographical lines or the standard F.S. recreation map.
Map of the SQF Complex of fires on the Sequoia National Forest, August 28, 2020.
The map of the Griffin Fire below is better. It is zoomed out providing geographical context, and is not cluttered. But much of the very small text is difficult or impossible to read.
Griffin Fire, Arizona, August 30, 2020.
The map below shows five widely separated fires in Arizona so it has quite a bit of context. It shows many, many dirt roads, but that helps to show the location of the three fires on the east side. I don’t know that the shaded relief background adds value, but it has a vicinity map, which is a plus. Overall, a very good map.
Medicine and other Fires in Arizona Augut 30, 2020.
The map of the P515 and Lionshead Fires in Oregon deserves praise for its simplicity and lack of clutter. The colors showing ownership are all very different from each other, making it simple to compare them to the helpful legend. It is effective and easy to comprehend. The Lionshead Fire is so close to the edge it makes me wonder what is just off the map to the west. Probably more of the same, but still…
(One of my pet peeves is when six similar shades of brown, for example, represent different features. Not a problem on this map.)
P515 and Lionshead Fires in Oregon, August 29, 2020.
The best map that I ran across during my quick perusal of InciWeb today is the White River Fire on the Mt. Hood National Forest in Oregon. The map maker made sure to include at least one community and several highways. They even went the extra step of adding three labels to features with which the public may be familiar. It is pleasing to the eye, has a useful legend, and the highways near the fire are identified. Even though much of the fire is on Forest Service responsibility land, they resisted the urge to use the FS recreation map as a base map. Great job, White River Fire. (Contact us and we’ll send you a prize, a Wildfire Today cap.)
Map showing the locations of fires in Nebraska and South Dakota, August 28, 2020.
On Friday firefighters were attacking two new fires in South Dakota and Nebraska.
The Aristocrat Fire is in northwest Nebraska near Chadron three miles southeast of the intersection of highways 385 and 20. Spokesperson for the U.S. Forest Service Tom Buskirk said at 6:30 p.m. MDT Friday it had burned approximately 200 acres and the spread had been mostly stopped. A variety of federal, state, and local fire agencies are working on the blaze. Mr. Buskirk said a large air tanker and a single engine air tanker had assisted firefighters in the afternoon.
At Wildfire Today we noted that Friday at 2:18 a.m. MDT a satellite detected heat in the area of the Aristocrat Fire.
The Rankin Fire in southwest South Dakota is north of Hot Springs in Wind Cave National Park two miles north of the intersection of highways 87 and 385. The lightning-caused fire is east of highway 87 and 1.5 miles south of Rankin Ridge lookout tower. At 6:30 p.m. MDT Friday the 20-acre fire was burning in an area that has been treated with prescribed fires. It is being attacked by engine crews, a Type 2 hand crew from Oregon, and a wildland fire module from New Jersey. Three single engine air tankers and a Type 3 helicopter are also assisting firefighters.
