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Wildfire potential, November through February

Bill GabbertNovember 1, 2016Uncategorizedpotential, weather

On November 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for November through February. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are correct, firefighters in the southeast and in southern California could see significant wildfire activity in November and December.

Scroll down to see additional wildfire potential maps, the drought monitor, and the 90-day temperature and precipitation outlooks, but immediately below are highlights from the wildfire potential outlook.

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November significant wildland fire potential is generally very minimal throughout the northern tier of the U.S. as conditions transition out of normal fire season. Areas of the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains that are currently seeing increased levels of fire activity are likely to see much of that activity diminish and transition to out of season conditions through early November.

Exceptions will continue in Southern California where long term drought is still in place. Conditions in this area will slowly transition to normal from north to south through the Outlook period. Normal implies a significant reduction in fire activity, but some fires should still be expected. Also, the southeastern U.S. will continue to see a large area of above normal significant fire potential for November and December that will slowly transition back to normal through the Outlook period as well. This condition is also largely due to long term drought that is going to be exacerbated by dry leaf litter falling on top of already dry fuels and also occasional dry and windy periods. For the southern Plains there is a plentiful grass crop that presents the potential for occasional dry and windy periods to increase fire activity.

Normal winter conditions will prevail across the U.S. in January and February. There will be occasional periods of increased fire activity, but these will be infrequent and difficult to predict accurately. During this outlook period winter precipitation and snowpack development will be a critical situation to monitor as the 2017 fire season becomes the focus of many fire managers.

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Continue reading “Wildfire potential, November through February”

Acquittals of Malheur domestic terrorists complicates lives of federal employees

Bill GabbertNovember 1, 2016November 1, 2016Uncategorized5 Comments

After the FBI ended the armed occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon February 11, investigators found more than 30 guns, 16,636 live rounds, and about 1,700 spent casings. Yet last week a jury found the seven people who had been dressed as cowboys and soldiers not guilty of conspiring to impede federal workers from their jobs.

It is likely that these domestic terrorists getting off scot-free will embolden others who believe the federal government has no authority to manage lands outside of Washington, DC.

Which national park, forest, or BLM area will be the next to be taken over by seditionists with assault rifles? The original invasion of the federal refuge, the trashing of the facility, the threats to employees and their families, and the acquittal of the criminals is redefining how security is implemented at many federal properties.

Below is an excerpt from an article by Christopher Ketcham in the New York Times in which he interviewed Carolyn Shelton, recently retired after 15 years in a high-level management position at the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument in Utah:

…B.L.M. employees who had worked for her “are angry, they are fearful, they are confused,” she said, and added, “Dealing with this toxic environment of animosity is a huge distraction from what we should be doing in public service, which is taking care of the land.”…

Before Ms. Shelton retired last August, security was significantly expanded at monument facilities to guard against attacks on employees and buildings, including installing panic buttons, dual-authentication door locks and, in some buildings, bulletproof glass.

She told me the Utah office of the B.L.M. went so far as to hire a former military terrorism expert, who advised that in the event of “security threats” — which are constant — B.L.M. employees should not go out in the field, wear B.L.M. uniforms or drive B.L.M.-marked vehicles.

“It’s gotten to the point that we do active shooter drills,” Ms. Shelton said. “It’s insane trying to do your job in this environment. It’s all money and time spent not protecting the resources. All we want is to do the job the American public has entrusted us with.”…

And from the High Country News:

Imagine running a business — say a bank or gas station — and every now and then a band of disgruntled customers barges in with guns, takes over your office and spouts nonsense about how you have no right to exist in the first place. How could you continue to conduct your business? How could you recruit new employees? How could you ensure the safety of your customers?

That is exactly the kinds of questions that leaders of our land management agencies — the folks who take care of our national parks, forests and wildlife refuges — now must face…

Now, 10 months later, an Oregon jury has acquitted them. By choosing the more difficult path of proving conspiracy rather than criminal trespass or some lesser charge, the government lawyers aimed too high and lost it all. The verdicts stunned even the defense attorneys who have no option of appealing.

Without second-guessing the jury, it’s clear that the repercussions of this case will play out for years to come. But I fear that the greatest and most lasting damage caused by the thugs who took over Malheur will prove to be the way they vandalized something essential to every functioning society: Trust. If America doesn’t get its act together, this verdict may prove to be the beginning of the end of one of our greatest experiments in democracy: our public lands…

Consider the words of elation uttered by those who supported the Bundys. Montana state Rep. Theresa Manzella, R-Darby, responded to the news with a Facebook post that read: “BEST NEWS IN A LONG TIME!!! Doin’ a happy dance! Didn’t expect the verdict today!!! Hurray!”

She elaborated to a newspaper reporter: “I think it will be very empowering. It indicates that American citizens are waking up and we don’t want to be kept under the thumb of the federal government.”

seditious conspiracy — From Cornell University Law School. Click to enlarge.

Squirrel causes fire in Rapid City, South Dakota

Bill GabbertNovember 1, 2016Uncategorizedanimal-arson, South Dakota4 Comments

Another documented case of Animal Arson:

E 3-1 and E-1 knocked down a small grass fire at Willsie and North St. Fire is out. Caused by a squirrel in the power line. pic.twitter.com/CB0yhyupR0

— Rapid City Fire Dept (@RapidCityFire) October 31, 2016

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Darren.

Report released on entrapment of six firefighters on the Cedar Fire in Arizona

Bill GabbertNovember 1, 2016November 1, 2016UncategorizedArizona, Cedar Fire, entrapment, fire shelter, report

Above: Fire whirl on the Cedar Fire, June 28, 2016, around the time of the entrapment. Screen grab from the video.

A report has been released on the entrapment of six firefighters that occurred on the Cedar Fire south of Show Low, Arizona June 28, 2016.

The firefighters were part of the Navajo Interagency Hotshot Crew (NIHC) that remained along with two Type 6 engines and possibly one other crew after the Type 1 Incident Management Team was released the previous day. The assignment of half the crew, nine firefighters, was to “monitor” a part of the southwest side of the fire that had six miles of uncontained fire edge. The other half was working on the southeast side.

Three of the nine personnel on the southwest side served as lookouts while the remaining six were monitoring and checking the fire edge. When a very large fire whirl developed near the six, they realized their escape route was cut off, and took refuge in a previously burned area. The ground fuels had burned, but the canopy was still intact. As the fire approached they deployed their fire shelters, remaining in them for about 30 minutes.

cedar fire entrapment site — The entrapment site at the Cedar Fire.

After the fire whirl subsided, the squad members were able to hike out to staged vehicles. They were transported in three ambulances, medically evaluated, and transported to Summit Hospital in Show Low, Arizona where they were evaluated. Two firefighters were treated for smoke inhalation and all were released by 10 p.m. that evening.

The report says the personnel deployed and entered the shelters just as they had practiced several times in training, and the devices worked as designed. There were no difficulties, as reported at other entrapments, with the PVC bags becoming soft and difficult to open.

Thankfully there were no serious injuries and the training the firefighters had received paid off.

But there are a number of interesting facts about what occurred before the entrapment

Resources on the fire

On June 27, the day before the entrapment, the Type 1 Incident Management Team issued their final update on the 45,977-acre fire just before they were released later that day. Below is a portion of the document.

The report claims the Type 1 Team recommended that the number of personnel assigned be reduced on Tuesday June 28 to about 400. But on Monday, June 27 all firefighters except for two Type 6 engines were released. With a 70 percent chance of rain in the weather forecast, on Tuesday the local agency decided to replace the Type 1 Team with a Type 4 Incident Commander, two Type 6 engines, and one or two hand crews. The crew(s) had to be re-mobilized on Tuesday after being released. Some aircraft were also assigned on Tuesday.

Video of the large fire whirl

Weather on Tuesday, the day of entrapment

About 20 minutes before the 2:45 p.m. entrapment the weather at the fire was 95 degrees, 21 percent relative humidity, with a 7 to 10 mph wind out of the south. Although “numerous” people observed dust devils and fire whirls before the large fire whirl formed, there was no discussion about modifying fire suppression tactics. Dust devils can be an indicator of the potential for extreme fire behavior.

cedar fire entrapment — Fire whirl on the Cedar Fire, June 28, 2016. Screen grab from the video.

Firefighters from across the country assisting with wildfires in the south

Bill GabbertOctober 31, 2016August 25, 2019UncategorizedNorth Carolina1 Comment

wildfires southern area — List of wildfires in the Southern Geographic Area, as shown in the October 31, 2016 daily Incident Management Report. Click to see larger version.

As most areas in the western states are winding down or have already closed out their wildfire season, the fall fire season in the South is appearing on the radar as leaves fall off the trees and frost kills the herbaceous vegetation, providing additional fuel.

The Southern Geographic Area’s daily report includes nine fires over the last couple of weeks that exceeded 100 acres.

The Nantahala National Forest in western North Carolina has five active blazes that have burned 40, 100, 33, 11, and 374 acres. Elevated fire activity on the Forest has prompted fire management officials to transition from district management to a Type 3 organization. Effective Sunday, this enables more effective management of several fires simultaneously under the umbrella of one incident commander.

Additional resources have arrived to assist in suppressing ongoing fires as well as any new starts. Crews from California, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Florida and Oregon have joined forces with local firefighters.

None of these fires show up on InciWeb.

fire map southern area — Location of wildfires as reported on October 31, 2016 by the Southern Area Coordination Center.

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Perry.

Strong winds and Red Flag Warnings, October 31, 2016

Bill GabbertOctober 31, 2016October 31, 2016UncategorizedRed Flag Warning

Above: The numbers indicate sustained wind speeds. The solid red areas are Red Flag Warnings. The lines show fronts. Reported at 12:40 p.m. MDT, October 31, 2016.

(UPDATED at 12:58 a.m. MDT October 31, 2016)

As weather fronts move across the Great Plains they are bringing strong winds today. Behind the trough (dashed yellow line) relative humidities are in the teens and twenties.

The National Weather Service has posted Red Flag Warnings for areas in South Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado.

Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts and maps.

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