Wildfire Today

News and opinion about wildland fire

Wildfire Today

Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire.

A weather station recorded strong winds as air tanker crashed on Kruger Rock Fire

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags , , , , 15 Comments on A weather station recorded strong winds as air tanker crashed on Kruger Rock Fire

Pilot Marc Thor Olson was killed

1:59 p.m. MST Nov. 18, 2021

This article was first published at Fire Aviation.

Weather data from Estes Park RAWS, ESPC2
Weather data from Estes Park RAWS, ESPC2. The last observation shown is at 2224 MST Nov. 16, 2021. The observations at the arrows were 12 minutes before the last detected location of the aircraft.

Around the time Single Engine Air Tanker 860 crashed at the Kruger Rock Fire in Colorado at approximately 6:36 p.m. MST on November 16, killing pilot Marc Thor Olson, the Estes Park ESPC2 Remote Automatic Weather Station recorded sustained winds of 13 mph gusting to 32 mph out of the west. The station is 3.7 miles northwest of the fire at 7,892 feet and its anemometer is 20 feet above the ground.

N802NZ, last 10 minutes of flight tracking data
N802NZ, last 10 minutes of flight tracking data, Nov. 16, 2021. FlightAware.

Looking at the flight tracking log from FlightAware above, the wind appeared to be much stronger at the plane’s altitude, which was 8,950 to 10,450 feet while it was over the fire. The highest peak just south of the fire is at 9,400 feet.

Map of the Krueger Rock Fire
Map of the Krueger Rock Fire, Nov. 17, 2021. Colorado’s Multi-Mission aircraft and crew.

As it made four orbits near the fire during the 10 minutes it was in the area, the ground speed of T-860, an Air Tractor 802A (N802NZ) varied from a low of 82 mph while flying west to a maximum of 200 mph when east-bound. These shifts in ground speed were consistent during all four orbits. This indicates a very strong wind out of the west, a direction that is consistent with the data from the weather station.

The last flight of Tanker 860 N802NZ
The last flight of Tanker 860, N802NZ. The flight originated at Northern Colorado Regional Airport. FlightAware. Note that the times are in CST.

There are two reasons that fixed wing air tankers avoid attacking wildfires during strong winds. One, the wind makes it difficult or impossible for the retardant to hit the target, getting blown horizontally as it falls from the aircraft to the ground. Second, flying low and slow, as air tankers have to do, is difficult in mountainous terrain with calm winds, but it can be extremely hazardous during strong winds.

When you add a third complexity of dropping at night using night vision goggles, something that has been done very little in the history of aviation, and never before in Colorado, the pilot had the deck stacked against him. The chances of stopping or slowing the spread of the fire with retardant, water, or any other suppresant, were very, very slim. (There is a report that the operator of the aircraft, CO Fire Aviation, experimented with night drops in Oregon in 2020 and 2021.)

The weather forecast available from the National Weather Service that Tuesday afternoon called for continued very strong winds until sundown and a chance for snow Tuesday night. It predicted dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s under mostly sunny skies with the relative humidity around 20 percent. The wind chill was expected to be below zero from Wednesday afternoon until Thursday afternoon. The actual low temperature Tuesday night turned out to be 11 degrees.

Risk vs. reward

With 20/20 hindsight looking at risk vs. reward, this was a very high risk mission. The potential reward was little, considering the likely effectiveness of 700 gallons of suppressant blown off target by strong winds and the weather forecast of a chance of snow in a matter of hours and wind chills the next day below zero.

Who decided to attempt the night flight?

The short answer is, the Larimer County Sheriff’s office ordered the aircraft to respond to the fire, using a “verbal call when needed contract”, an arrangement that was first agreed to on October 5, 2021.

A preliminary map appears to show that the fire was just inside the boundary of the Roosevelt National Forest. The Larimer County Sheriff’s office said on Wednesday Nov. 17 that as of 7 a.m. that day the fire was being managed by a unified command with the US Forest Service and the Sheriff.

In Colorado, Texas, and Wyoming the local county sheriffs are given the responsibility for suppressing wildfires outside of cities unless they are on federal land. The Kruger Rock Fire was in Larimer County.

As Wildfire Today reported November 16, before the fatal flight, T-860 departed from the Fort Morgan, Colorado airport, orbited the fire about half a dozen times, then landed at Northern Colorado Regional Airport at 4:38 p.m. MST. This flight is listed in the image from FlightAware above as one of two flights that day for the aircraft. It turns out that on the first flight it dropped water on the fire, which the pilot reportedly described as “successful”. After it landed at Northern Colorado Regional Airport it reloaded with “fire suppressant” instead of water, and by 6:13 p.m. MST was airborne returning to the fire.

Sunset that day was at 4:44 p.m. MST. The air tanker disappeared from tracking at 6:35 p.m., about 1 hour and 49 minutes after sunset. Air tankers working for the U.S. federal government are allowed to drop only as late as 30 minutes after official sunset.

The Denver Post reported that CO Fire Aviation said in a statement, “There was no aerial supervision or lead plane required for the mission and weather and wind conditions were reported to be within limits of our company standard operating procedures.”

In the video below Juan Browne has strong feelings about this incident. Shortly after posting it, he wrote a comment saying, “GROUNDSPEED NOT AIRSPEED!”

Below is an excerpt from a statement released November 17, 2021 by the Larimer County Sheriff’s office:

Continue reading “A weather station recorded strong winds as air tanker crashed on Kruger Rock Fire”

Night-flying air tanker crashes while working on wildfire in Colorado

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories WildfireTags , , , , 14 Comments on Night-flying air tanker crashes while working on wildfire in Colorado

The pilot was killed

Updated at 4:56 p.m. MST Nov. 17, 2021

Wednesday afternoon CO Fire Aviation released a statement that identified the pilot who was killed Nov. 16 during a night-flying air tanker mission on the Kruger Rock Fire southeast of Estes Park, Colorado.

The CO Fire Aviation family is deeply saddened by the sudden, tragic loss of one of our brothers serving as a tanker pilot. Marc Thor Olson was a highly decorated veteran of both the Army and Air Force with 32 years of service to our country. During Thor’s 42 years of flight, he had amassed more than 8,000 total flight hours with an impressive 1,000 hours of NVG flight including in combat and civilian flight.

Co Fire maintains a close working relationship with multi regulatory agencies and is fully cooperating with the proper authorities and partners during this investigation.

While we are gravely aware of the inherent dangers of aerial fire fighting and the questions that remain; we ask that family and friends be given distance and time to process and heal as we grieve this loss. Your prayers are appreciated during this difficult time.

A preliminary map appears to show that the fire was just inside the boundary of the Roosevelt National Forest. The Larimer County Sheriff’s office said on Wednesday that as of 7 a.m. Wednesday the fire was managed by a unified command with the US Forest Service and the Sheriff. In Colorado the local county sheriffs are given the responsibility for suppressing wildfires outside of cities unless they are on federal land.

Map, Kruger Rock Fire
The map shows the approximate location of the Kruger Rock Fire. It is based heat detected by satellites as late as 1:40 p.m. MST Nov. 16, 2021. Clouds degraded the ability of satellites to obtain good quality data.

The crash occurred at about 6:35 p.m MST on Tuesday Nov. 16 while attempting to suppress the fire. This was about 1 hour and 49 minutes after sunset, and was the first time a fixed wing air tanker had dropped fire suppressant on a fire at night in Colorado.

11:29 p.m. MST Nov. 16, 2021

AT-802F single engine air tanker
File photo of the aircraft that crashed November 16, 2021. Air Tractor AT-802A, N802NZ, owned by CO Fire Aviation. Photo by Aviation Specialties Unlimited September, 2018.

An air tanker that was working the Kruger Rock Fire southeast of Estes Park, Colorado Tuesday night November 16 crashed, killing the pilot, the only person on board. The Single Engine Air Tanker (SEAT) had taken off from Northern Colorado Regional Airport, formerly known as the Fort Collins-Loveland Municipal Airport, at 6:13 p.m. MST Nov. 16 and disappeared from flight tracking 22 minutes later at 6:35 p.m. MST. Earlier in the day it departed from the Fort Morgan, Colorado airport, orbited the fire about half a dozen times, then landed at Northern Colorado Regional Airport at 4:38 p.m. MST.

The incident was first reported by KUSA, 9News in Denver. Marc Sallinger, reporter for the station, had interviewed the pilot earlier in the day, and wrote on Twitter, “My thoughts and prayers are with the pilot who took off tonight, so excited for this history-making flight. He told me ‘this is the culmination of 5 years of hard work.’ He showed me his night vision goggles and how they worked. He was so kind. Holding out hope for him.”

Eyewitnesses reported the crash at approximately 6:37 p.m., but in the dark it was very difficult to pinpoint the location. After three hours of searching, firefighters found it near the south end of Hermit Park. Unfortunately the pilot was deceased.

The aircraft was an Air Tractor 802A, registration number N802NZ, owned by CO Fire Aviation. In 2018 we wrote about the company’s efforts to configure this aircraft for fighting fires at night. Helicopters have been doing it off and on for decades, but a fixed wing air tanker dropping retardant on a fire at night is extremely rare. In 2020 and 2021 CO Fire Aviation had one of their SEATs working on a night-flying contract in Oregon. The company says they are the only operators of night-flying fixed wing air tankers.

Earlier this year a video was posted on YouTube that featured CO Fire Aviation conducting a night-flying demonstration at Loveland, Colorado. That segment begins at 8:15 in the video.

At 6 p.m. the Larimer County Sheriff’s office said the Kruger Rock Fire had burned about 133 acres. More information about the fire.

Our sincere condolences go out to the pilot’s family, friends, and coworkers.

The article was edited to show that the crash was first reported by KUSA, 9News in Denver.

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Tom.

Scientists confirm that nighttime wildfire activity is increasing

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags , , 9 Comments on Scientists confirm that nighttime wildfire activity is increasing

Firefighting agencies need to make changes to deal with the the new normal

Day-night proportion of fire activity
Fig. 9 from the study below showing the proportions of heat detected on wildfires at night, vs. during the day. The MODIS (black) time series spans 2003–2020 and the VIIRS (red) time series spans 2012–2020. The horizontal dotted line at 28% indicates the CONUS-wide value detected by MODIS from 2003–2020.

In a study of wildfires in the conterminous United States from 2003 to 2020 researchers found that while fire activity increased during the day in the 18-year period, it increased even more at night.

Heat sensing data from satellites showed significant increasing trends in nighttime wildfire fire activity, with a +54%, +42% and +21% increase in the annual nighttime sum of Fire Radiative Power (FRP), annual nighttime active fire pixel counts, and annual mean nighttime per-pixel values of FRP, respectively, in the latter half of the study period. Activity during the day increased also, with rates of +36%, +31%, and +7% respectively.

Analysis of coincident 1000-hour fuel moistures indicated that as fuels dried out, satellites detected increasingly larger and more intense wildfires with higher probabilities of nighttime persistence.

The information above is from the study “Large wildfire driven increases in nighttime fire activity observed across CONUS from 2003–2020,” by Patrick H. Freeborn, W. Matt Jolly, Mark A. Cochrane, and Gareth Roberts.

Average wildfire size, US, 1985-2000 (except Alaska)

The reason wildfires typically exhibit less activity at night is due to diurnal changes in weather. Nighttime generally brings lower temperatures, higher relative humidity, decreasing winds, and higher fuel moistures in light fuels.

But a warming climate with occasional multi-year droughts and higher temperatures can lead to nighttime higher temperatures and lower humidities. Drought will lower the fuel moistures in live and dead vegetation. These changes can result in fuels at night remaining available for significant and continuous fire spread. This is causing wildfires to burn with more intensity, spread more quickly, and have more resistance to control 24 hours a day.

Annual temperature change

About 15 to 20 years ago firefighters could usually count on wildfire activity slowing significantly at night as long as the wind was not extreme. Night shift crews could make good progress constructing direct fireline near the edge of fires. In the last few years weather and fuel conditions that permit direct attack by ground personnel, day or night, are less common. Fires are getting larger. Megafires that blacken 100,000 acres are no longer rare.

So now what?

As fires show increasing resistance to control we need to ramp up our fuel treatments, including prescribed fires, by a factor of 10. Less than full suppression of carefully selected fires when the season-ending weather event is on the horizon can have a place also, if they are very carefully planned and actively tracked and managed using all of the predictive tools available run by very smart, experienced personnel.

We also need to realize that we will never be able to prevent all wildfires from burning into populated areas, so property owners must realize they have to live with fire, using FireWise principles. Here are six things that need to be done to protect fire-prone communities.

And, community destruction during extreme wildfires is a home ignition problem. Here is an excerpt from the article written by Jack Cohen and Dave Strohmaier:

Uncontrollable extreme wildfires are inevitable; however, by reducing home ignition potential within the Home Ignition Zone we can create ignition resistant homes and communities. Thus, community wildfire risk should be defined as a home ignition problem, not a wildfire control problem. Unfortunately, protecting communities from wildfire by reducing home ignition potential runs counter to established orthodoxy.

We also have to realize that the fire suppression manpower staffing model that was created 50 years ago is obsolete. The agencies that fight wildfires, especially the federal agencies, need to increase the numbers of Interagency Hotshot Crews and engine crews. The crews must be configured and managed to allow personnel to have a reasonable amount of down time at the home unit even during the busiest times of the fire year. They can’t be away from home 90 percent of the time and expect to have a decent work/life balance. One National Forest will begin a pilot program in 2022 increasing the sizes of Hotshot and Engine crews to 30 and 10 people, respectively. This is intended to improve work/life balance and increase the availability of resources.

The reforms in the just-passed infrastructure bill to improve the pay and working conditions of firefighters must be implemented immediately. Slow-walking those improvements, a tactic too often used by the Federal agencies, should not be tolerated.

Technology needs to be adopted to make firefighting more safe and efficient. Firefighters down to the crew supervisor level should have access to real time data about the location of the fire and other firefighting resources 24 hours a day. Communications capabilities need to be robust and bomb proof.

On the afternoon of November 16, 2021 we initiated a 24-hour online poll on Twitter, asking for firefighters’ observations about nighttime wildfire activity.

Kruger Rock Fire prompts evacuations southeast of Estes Park, Colo.

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories WildfireTags , , 2 Comments on Kruger Rock Fire prompts evacuations southeast of Estes Park, Colo.

Updated at 3:57 p.m. MST Nov. 17, 2021

Map, Kruger Rock Fire 3D 140 p.m. MST Nov. 16, 2021
The map shows the approximate location of the Kruger Rock Fire. It is based heat detected by satellites as late as 1:40 p.m. MST Nov. 16, 2021. Clouds degraded the ability of satellites to obtain good quality data.

In Colorado the local county sheriffs are given the responsibility for suppressing wildfires outside of cities. The Larimer County Sheriff’s office has not released much more information about the Kruger Rock Fire since the pilot of a single engine air tanker was killed in a crash while attempting to suppress the fire at about 6:35 p.m MST on Tuesday Nov. 16. It occurred about 1 hour and 49 minutes after sunset, and was the first time a fixed wing air tanker had dropped fire suppressant on a fire at night.

Wednesday afternoon the operator of the aircraft, CO Fire Aviation, released the name of the pilot, Marc Thor Olson.

The Sheriff’s office said Wednesday morning that there were changes in the evacuation areas, which can be seen on their map. The size of the fire was estimated to be 140 acres.

An investigation into the cause of the fire has revealed high winds blew a tree onto a power line causing it to arc and start the fire.

4:50 p.m MST Nov. 16, 2021

Map, Kruger Rock Fire
Map showing the approximate location of the Kruger Rock Fire. The two red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 11:06 a.m. MST Nov. 16, 2021.

A new wildfire in Colorado has prompted evacuations east of Rocky Mountain National Park.

The Kruger Fire was reported at about 7 a.m. near Little Valley Road and Fish Creek Road near Kruger Rock 3 miles southeast of Estes Park and 2 miles east of Mary’s Lake. It is about 3 miles east of Rocky Mountain National Park.

At 3 p.m. fire officials estimated it had burned 115 acres. There are 150 personnel currently working the fire with more ordered.

At about 1:10 p.m. local time the Larimer County Sheriff’s Office issued a mandatory evacuation order for the area between Pole Hill Road and Panorama Peak on the east side of Highway 36. An hour earlier the office had issued a mandatory evacuation order for the area of Meadowdale, and south to the Boulder County line, to include Big Elk Meadows and Pinewood Springs west of Highway 36.

The evacuation map below is available online.

Kruger Fire evacuation map
Kruger Fire evacuation map, 1:32 p.m. MST Nov. 16, 2021.

Colorado Highway 36 is closed in the area.

Kruger Rock Fire
Kruger Rock Fire. Image by Michael Warren the morning of Nov. 16, 2021.

Strong winds in the fire area have kept firefighting aircraft grounded, except for an intelligence-collecting Multi-Mission plane flying thousands of feet over the fire. The wind direction at a weather station just west of the fire (at 7,841 feet) was quite variable Tuesday, blowing from the south, west and north at 5 to 13 mph gusting at 25 to 34 mph. At noon it was 73 degrees with 26 percent relative humidity. The forecast for the fire area calls for continued very strong winds until sundown and a chance for snow Tuesday night. It will be dry Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s under mostly sunny skies with the relative humidity around 20 percent. The wind chill will be below zero from Wednesday afternoon until Thursday afternoon.

CAL FIRE Director Thom Porter announces his retirement

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags , 4 Comments on CAL FIRE Director Thom Porter announces his retirement
Chief Thom Porter
Chief Thom Porter Oct. 28, 2019. CAL FIRE photo.

Chief Thom Porter announced Monday that he is retiring from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection after leading the agency for the last three years.

Porter was appointed acting Director of the Department by Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. on December 14, 2018. Three weeks later he was named Director by Governor Gavin Newsom.

He first started with CAL FIRE in 1999 after working as a forester since 1992 with private industry in Washington, Oregon and in the Sierra Nevada. The positions he held with CAL FIRE included the San Diego Unit Fire Chief, Assistant Southern Region Chief, and Southern Region Chief before becoming Chief of Strategic Planning in Sacramento Headquarters January 1, 2018.

The Associated Press reports that Porter took the blame in June for Gov. Gavin Newsom overstating the amount of land that had been treated with prescribed burns and fuel breaks. Newsom said 90,000 acres had been treated, when Capitol Radio first reported that the actual number was 87% less. Porter said his Department had done a poor job educating the governor and the public about its efforts.

Porter’s last day is December 10, a CAL FIRE spokesperson said. The Governor has not announced a replacement.

Porter is a 5th generation San Diego native who married his high school sweetheart and life partner Rebecca. They enjoy spending time with their two sons and their partners, and three family dogs, all of whom live in California. He said he plans to return to San Diego to focus on his family and aging parents.

One National Forest will have two 30-person hotshot crews next year

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags , , , , 18 Comments on One National Forest will have two 30-person hotshot crews next year

And, three 10-person engine crews

Angeles National Forest pilot program for Engine crew to have 10 personnel
Angeles National Forest pilot program for Engine crew with 10 personnel, working 12-hour days. “D/O” means day off.

During the last three weeks there has been a surprising amount of discussion about increasing the size of wildland fire crews. One national forest is hiring 30-person hotshot crews and 10-person engine crews.

  • October, 20, 2021: Tim Swedberg recommended 30-person hotshot crews in an article on Wildfire Today;
  • October 27, 2021: In testimony before the House of Representatives’ Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Jaelith Hall-Rivera, Deputy Forest Service Chief for State and Private Forestry said, “We need to have larger crew sizes, so that people can take time off so they can rest and have a work/life balance. That’s going to mean we are going to need more firefighters.”
  • November 9, 2021: Ms. Hall-Rivera sent a memo to all U.S. Forest Service Regional Foresters directing them to add five firefighters to Interagency Hotshot Crews (IHC) to bring the size up to 25.

However, the effort to increase the size of USFS crews had been seriously discussed earlier. Wildfire Today has learned that the Angeles National Forest (ANF) in Southern California developed a proposal in 2018 for 30-person Interagency Hotshot Crews (IHC). Not only that, but we have obtained two memos written August 12, 2021 by the Fire Chief of the ANF recommending a pilot program for IHCs to be staffed with 30 people and engine crews to have 10.

Below is the ANF memo dated August 12, 2021 about 30-person hotshot crews.

[pdf-embedder url=”https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ANF-IHC-staffing.pdf” title=”30-person Interagency Hotshot Crews”]

 

And next is the ANF memo dated August 12, 2021 about 9 or 10-person engine crews. (Since then, they have decided on 10-person engine crews.)

[pdf-embedder url=”https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ANF-Engine-Staffing.pdf” title=”ANF Engine Staffing”]

 

The Angeles National Forest (ANF) is not only proposing larger IHC and engine crews, they are stepping out ahead of the crowd according to a person who prefers not to publicly disclose their identity. In recent weeks they completed hiring to have two 30-person hotshot crews and three 10-person engine crews in 2022. The newly selected personnel (promotions of existing permanent employees) will be effective in January, 2022. The crews will be fully staffed to start annual training in April.

One of the ANF memos states, “Although this [20-person IHC] model was effective for decades the current standard does not provide the depth to meet the higher demands for crew availability to provide employee wellbeing or meet the needs of crew availability across the fire year…This proposed module will increase capacity from 12 pay periods (6 Months) of availability to 18 Pay Periods (9 Months) of availability. This proposal will significantly improve work life balance for Hotshot firefighters… Although the IHC will have a full 3rd squad, the IHC will maintain the current deployment/mobilization standards of 20 personnel. Adherence to the current mobilization standard of 20 personnel will allow for an ongoing rotation for the 3rd module to stand down and remain “local only”. This stand-down period will help to provide ample opportunities for hotshot firefighters to manage annual leave and balance work with time at home. This will also help to provide the workload pacing to sustain a crew for 9 months while better managing the effects of cumulative fatigue and burn out. Finally, it will provide increased capacity for employees to develop for the next level of leadership through single resource assignments.”

Configuration of the 30-person ANF IHC

Two ANF IHCs will each add seven apprentice/Permanent Seasonals working at least 18 pay periods, a third hotshot Captain, a third squad leader, and two senior firefighters.

ANF IHC staffing pilot program
ANF Interagency Hotshot Crew pilot program staffing pattern.

Configuration of the 10-person ANF Engine Crew

To the standard USFS Region 5 (California) Type 3 engine crew of seven people working five days a week, the upgraded crew will add three positions — a second Engineer, a second Assistant Fire Engine Operator, and a third Senior Firefighter. With the 12 hours per day staffing pattern, which we have been told the ANF has selected, they will work three days one week and four the other, with three days off in a row and four days off in a row during a two-week pay period. All of these staffing patterns call for five on each day.

History of IHC crew size

Since the early 1970s IHCs have been comprised of 20 people, or recently in some cases as many as 22 to help account for attrition, difficulty hiring, personal time off, sickness, and injuries. In 1970 El Cariso Hotshots had 36 people. When the size was reduced the next year, the story we were told was that the Forest Service wanted to use 20-passenger de Havilland Twin Otter aircraft, which began production in 1966, to move crews around. So their decision was to cut the size of the crews to fit that airplane. There may have also been other reasons.

As a crew foreman at the time, I thought 20 people was too many to work together efficiently as one unit to dig line in most fuels, and a 10-person squad was too few. I felt that 13 to 14 crew members was the most efficient size to work together while digging line, which you would have with a 28 to 30-person crew broken into two squads, allowing for the Superintendent and lookouts. Those numbers can change in very light or very heavy fuels.