Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches have been issued for areas in Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Arizona,, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.
The map was current as of 8 a.m.. MDT on Monday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts and maps. For the most current data visit this NWS site or this NWS site.
California’s snowpack has reached an all-time low since 1950, the California Department of Water Resources announced last week.
Like most states in the West, the department takes regular snowpack measurements, which are used to predict the amount of water California can expect to see in its reservoirs. The measurements are also an indicator of how dry and possibly fire-prone California’s landscape has become.
California’s snowpack accounts for 30 percent of the state’s water, once it melts, the release said.
Snowpack measurements are taken against an average — at 100 percent — making anything less than 100 less than average. California’s snowpack has been on a steady decline since January of this year. The latest measurement was 8 percent of the historical average. Typically, snowpack is at its peak in California by April 1.
The state is going into its fourth year of extreme drought, following three of its driest years on record.
The Pine Crest wildfire near Columbus, Montana burned two homes this weekend and forced dozens of residents to evacuate, the Billings-Gazette reported on Sunday.
The fire started around 1 p.m. on Saturday five miles west of Columbus, which is west of Billings. As of Monday morning it had burned 3,000 acres and was 10 percent contained on Sunday night. Three helicopters fought the fire along with 98 firefighters, according to the Billings-Gazette. InciWeb reports show that one firefighter was injured.
A subdivision was expected to remain on evacuation until Monday morning, when the Columbus Fire Department planned to host a public meeting. The fire’s cause is still under investigation, according to InciWeb.
Another Montana fire near Red Lodge briefly shut down a local ski area on Saturday. The West Fork fire was 20 percent contained at 400 acres as of Saturday night. In a post on its Facebook page, Red Lodge Fire Rescue said the fire ignited when a days-old controlled burn rekindled.
Snowpack in south-central Montana is below average, hovering around 89 percent of normal, according to the latest reports from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. In the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook released for March through June, Montana was not expected to have an above-average early fire season.
“The periods of warm chinook flow during this time melted snow accumulations over all but the highest elevations east of the Continental Divide in Montana, and dried fine fuels enough to allow sporadic grass and brush fire activity,” the report said. “This is not an unusual occurrence as these warm dry periods in winter occur most years to some degree.”
Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches have been issued for areas in Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and eastern Colorado.
The map was current as of 9:15 a.m. MDT on Monday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts and maps. For the most current data visit this NWS site or this NWS site.
A southern Colorado man was cited on Saturday for arson, after a private controlled burn got out of control on the grassy plains east of Colorado Springs.
The small fire prompted evacuations in the communities of Ellicott and Peyton. At first they were mandatory until firefighters started to contain the burn and evacuation orders were relaxed to voluntary.
The fire started around 5:30 p.m. and spread to 150 acres in less than two hours, KOAA news in Colorado Springs reported. The blaze was quickly contained by 7 p.m., and the homeowner who allegedly started the fire cited with fourth-degree arson, according to the Colorado Springs Gazette.
UPDATE: Man cited with arson in eastern El Paso County wildfire Read more at http://t.co/57gKu6kGbZ pic.twitter.com/CJkcM7pjnP
— The Gazette (@csgazette) March 29, 2015
Colorado Springs is home to the state’s most destructive fires. In 2012, the Waldo Canyon fire burned more than 18,000 acres, destroyed 347 homes in Colorado Springs and killed two people. Almost exactly a year later, the Black Forest fire ignited east of Colorado Springs, and burned more than 15,000 acres, 486 homes and killed two people.
This year, El Paso County in southern Colorado has already had several small grass fires, although Saturday’s fire was the first this year to threaten homes.
Update 5:30 p.m. MDT:
New maps have updated the West Fork fire perimeter to 400 acres, down from an estimated 700 as of Saturday night.
Seventy people are working on the fire, including crews from Red Lodge Rural 7 and the U.S. Forest Service. Crews determined that the fire threatened 30 structures, although none were damaged or destroyed. There were no evacuations on Sunday and the Red Lodge Mountain ski area was operational on Sunday.
The fire was estimated to be 20 percent contained as of early Sunday evening. In a post on its Facebook page, Red Lodge Fire Rescue said:
“(The) fire was believed to have been rekindled from a controlled burn that was started last (Wednesday), when there was still snow on the ground. Yesterday’s high wind and temperature brought it back.”
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Original post:
A wildfire a few miles from the southern Montana town of Red Lodge forced a brief evacuation of the local ski area, Red Lodge Mountain, on Saturday afternoon, the Billings-Gazette reported.
Skiers escorted off Red Lodge Mountain when fire ignites on West Fork of Rock Creek. http://t.co/n1wfNu1UT5 pic.twitter.com/gzK6HsQ1Tm
— Kristi Angel (@bgkristiangel) March 29, 2015
A controlled burn on private land might have ignited the wildfire when it was fanned by winds and spread out of control on Saturday. Incident reports show that fire was human caused, with an investigation on-going. By Saturday night it had burned more than 700 acres.
Officially named the West Fork fire, the blaze has been working its way through timber, grass and sagebrush. The ski area was evacuated around 2:30 p.m. as a precautionary move and to allow fire crews better access, a spokesman for the U.S. Forest Service told The Associated Press.
The ski area was closed for a few hours; officials with Red Lodge Mountain said that the area will be open on Sunday.
Conditions at the resort are warm and dry, and it has been more than three days since the area last saw snowfall, according to forecast histories. Snowpack in the Upper Yellowstone basin, where the ski area is, was below average, according to the most recent measurements taken by the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
The basin’s snowpack came in at 89 percent of normal as of measurements posted on March 29.
Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches have been issued for areas in South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of Texas.
The map was current as of 10:30 a.m. MDT on Sunday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts and maps. For the most current data visit this NWS site or this NWS site.
November is typically characterized by increases in cold air intrusions across much of the United States. This also begins what is considered the dry season for much of the Plains and portions of the inter-mountain west. Rainfall begins to become more prevalent further south along the Gulf and where Gulf flow (southerly winds carrying moisture from the Gulf into the US) can become established before a storm system. This flow typically becomes established ahead of an advancing cold front, but is pushed further east than during the summer months. Multiple cold fronts with very little moisture/flow recovery time between can greatly influence fire activity for the Mississippi Valley and eastward. Wide sweeping cold fronts are common and typically drier as moisture becomes more limited, dominated by Canadian/Arctic air masses.
Vegetation is now dormant across most of the continental US and foliage/grasses can cure easily. The Appalachians have a vigorous deciduous tree canopy and provide new debris and additional uncompacted litter for increased fire occurrence/sustainability. Strong cold fronts tend to bring much drier air and windy conditions that only fuel fire conditions along these slopes and further to the east/southeast. The fuel load depends greatly on the water received from tropical systems during the late summer/early fall. If there is an active tropical season, fuel loads can be greatly enhanced. Therefore, the region is greatly dependent on the tropical/drought status of the area and their subsequent influences on the fire season.
Overnight relative humidity recovery is typically much higher across the US than the summer. This is due in part to the lack of solar radiation. Less sunlight reaches the earth’s surface in the Northern Hemisphere during winter. This in turn prevents the surface from warming, allowing the surface temperature to drop during the overnight, approaching saturation much easier, and providing increased humidity. Therefore, often fires in late fall/early winter may make a big run in the afternoon when the surface is warm, but then easily/quickly lay down once the sun sets. There are some exceptions including strong storm systems and terrain influences, but typically this is the case.
Complicated weather pattern currently across the US. A large high pressure sits over the inter-mountain West, an elongated front extends from Texas northeast into the Great Lakes, and another cold front is sweeping south into the northern Plains.
Fire weather focus is for southwestern California, where breezy off-shore winds continue Wed/Thurs in response to diverging winds of the high pressure centered over northern Utah. Sustained winds along higher terrain are expected up to 20-25mph with gusts to 45-50 (see graphic below). With these downsloping winds, very dry/warm conditions are expected with RHs in the mid-to-upper single digits. In combination with ongoing drought conditions, this will create explosive fire weather conditions Wed afternoon and Red Flag Warnings are posted. Winds are expected to weaken Thurs as high pressure moves northward. However, some areas will still see aggravated fire weather conditions with gusts exceeding 20mph in southern CA. After Thurs, winds will be much calmer for the remainder of the period but conditions will remain very dry. Daytime RH isn’t expected to exceed 15% for the entire period with very poor overnight recoveries into the weekend.
Elsewhere, several cold fronts are expected to traverse the Plains and Eastern US through the period. With these frontal systems, quick periods of dry and/or windy conditions are possible. The first front is currently entering the northern Plains and will bring a period of windy conditions for central South Dakota with RH dropping to 20-25% Wed afternoon. Overnight Wed the front moves further southeast into the Mississippi Valley, reaching the Appalachians Thurs. Friday, it reaches the southeastern US and windy conditions move offshore. However, enhanced fire concerns exist with RHs ranging 20-25% from east Texas to northern Florida. Friday afternoon, another quick moving cold front enters the Plains with strong winds across the northern Plains. This second front will move eastward and repeats the process through Sunday.
A third, much stronger cold front moves south from Canada on Sunday evening. This front will bring much colder air to much of the central and eastern US early week. Very strong winds are possible with this front on Sunday/Monday in the central Plains both ahead and behind the cold front. Enhanced fire conditions are possible across the central Plains through this 48 hour period, especially for portions of eastern Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.
Some rainfall is likely from these fronts, however, much of it will avoid the southeastern, central, and southwestern US. Image from NWS Weather Prediction Center – 5 day rain predicted rainfall total.
Weather Highlights:
Southern CA: Red Flag Warnings for Wed, critical fire weather with strong winds (gusting to near 50mph) and very low RH (4-9%). Winds will weaken Thurs (gusting to 20mph), and become calm Fri-remaining very dry. Poor overnight RH recovery through the week, and into the weekend.
ND/SD: Enhanced fire weather conditions on Wed & Fri afternoon with strong northwest winds (gusting to 60mph) and low RH (20-25%).
TX/LA/MS/AL/GA/FL: Locally enhanced fire weather conditions on Fri-Sun afternoons with low RHs (25-35%).
Western KS, NE, OK/Eastern CO, WY: Beginning Sun morning and continuing until a cold front passage Monday afternoon, very windy conditions (gusting to 55mph) and low RHs (5-15% increasing Mon afternoon).
Chip
On a recent October day south and west of Alpine, AZ, James Nesslage and Brandon Billy were harvesting a bumper crop of cones from the top branches of a 100-foot tall ponderosa pine. That tree and others like it are survivors of the 538,049-acre Wallow Fire that burned in eastern Arizona and western New Mexico in 2011, most of it within the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest. The cones being picked will yield the seeds needed to continue the restoration of parts of that vast burn.
Plans to restore the forest began before the Wallow Fire was contained. Initial estimates were that high burn severity over much of the fire area would result in natural regeneration being hampered by a lack of available seed trees.
To have the best chance of survival, seedlings must be grown from cones taken from parent trees in the area. Patrick Murphy, silviculturist on the Apache-Sitgreaves, explained:
Several factors are used in determining where cones are harvested and from which trees seed is collected. The forest has pre-established “seed zones”. These seed zones are geographic locations found throughout the forest. In collecting seed we take into consideration if the parent tree is free from insects, disease, defects, deformity, or forking. The tree should also exhibit superior height and diameter growth. We will plant seedlings in the same seed zone and elevation band where the parent tree is located.
Earlier in the year, there was a larger crew of 20 people harvesting the seed cones. Now as the cone picking season, which began in mid-August, was winding down, there were only two other people; father and son Randy and Brandon James, working that day. It would take two to three hours for each team to completely strip the tree of its cones. “The contract specifies eighty-percent (of the cones on each tree)” said Mr. Nesslage, “but we try to do better than that”. The pine that the James duo picked that morning barely produced a bushel of good cones while the tree that Mr. Nesslage and Mr. Billy harvested yielded over three bushels.
A general contractor in the construction business, Mr. Nesslage came across a solicitation for a seed cone harvesting contract on the Federal Business Opportunities website and thought it was a chance to put some of his climbing experience to good use. “Go camping, climb trees and get paid for it! Sweet!” was his reaction. He was awarded a contract and started picking in 2012. He admitted that the learning curve was a little steep at first but was able to complete the harvest. The cone crop in 2013 was poor and was not picked, so when Mr. Nesslage’s teams returned to the woods this year, not only was there more to harvest, they had a larger crew and more knowledge of how to do the job better and more efficiently.