Air quality and smoke forecasts for September, 13, 2020

Smoke Forecast fire September 13, 2020
Smoke forecast for 6 a.m. PDT Sept 13, 2020.

The map above shows the forecast for the distribution of near-surface smoke at 6 a.m. PDT September, 13, 2020.

It appears that severe impacts will occur in areas of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana.

(UPDATED smoke and air quality maps for September 13 can be found HERE)

Air quality from AirNow at 3 p.m. PDT September 12, 2020 is below. Most of Oregon, Washington, and northern California are in the categories of Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, or Hazardous. If you’re in those areas and are lucky enough to have an N95 mask, this is a good time to use it. Being indoors does not help much unless you are aggressively filtering the air with a HEPA category filter. (Information about how to reduce your exposure to smoke.)

Air quality at 3 p.m. PDT Sept. 12, 2020
Air quality at 3 p.m. PDT Sept. 12, 2020. AirNow.

Below is the air quality forecast for Sunday September 13, 2020.

Air Quality forecast for September 13, 2020
Air Quality forecast for September 13, 2020. AirNow.

The photos below compare visibility in Eugene, Oregon on a clear day and today, September 12, 2020.

Visibility Eugene, Oregon clear day
Visibility in Eugene, Oregon on a clear day.
Visibility Eugene, Oregon today September 12, 2020 smoke fires
Visibility in Eugene, Oregon today, September 12, 2020.

Wildfire smoke forecast September 12, 2020

September 11, 2020  |  8:43 p.m. PDT

Smoke forecast 5 am PDT Sept 12, 2020
Smoke forecast 5 a.m. PDT Sept. 12, 2020.

Above is the forecast for the distribution of smoke from wildfires at 5 a.m. PDT, September 12, 2020.

The satellite photo below shows much of the smoke from the west coast fires being blown out over the Pacific, while some remains in Washington, Oregon, and California, and also is being transported to the east.

(Information about how to reduce your exposure to smoke.)

Satellite photo, 4:30 p.m. Sept 11, 2020
Satellite photo, 4:30 p.m. Sept 11, 2020. GOES 17, NASA.

Crew on North Complex in California overrun by fire deploys fire shelters

And, an update on the shelter deployment at the Dolan Fire

Map of the North Complex, Claremont & Bear Fires
Map of the North Complex, Claremont & Bear Fires 11:12 a.m. PDT Sept 11, 2020.

A firefighting hand crew was overrun by the fire they were fighting September 9 and had to deploy their fire shelters. It happened on the Claremont/Bear Fire, two merged blazes that are part of the North Complex.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection explained that the fire  became unpredictable due to erratic weather and dry fuel conditions. The agency said the personnel were “virtually unharmed except for two minor injuries.” The incident is under review.

Fire Shelter Test
Fire Shelter Tests in Canada, June, 2015.

Fire shelters are small foldable pup tent-like fire resistant devices that a wildland firefighter can unfold and climb into if there is no option for escaping from an approaching inferno. The shelters can resist radiant heat, and if the person inside can seal the edges under their body, convective heat as well, but there are limits. Many firefighters have used the devices successfully, but others have been killed inside them.

The North Complex has burned 252,534 acres east of Oroville, California. Approximately 1,000 structures have been destroyed and 10 civilians have been killed. Resources assigned include 73 hand crews, 18 helicopters, 254 fire engines, 76 dozers, and 98 water tenders for a total of 3,108 personnel.

On September 5, three firefighters on the Bridger Foothills Fire northeast of Bozeman, Montana were forced to deploy and take refuge in their fire shelters when their safety became compromised by the proximity of the blaze, fire officials said.

September 8 on the Dolan Fire south of Big Sur, California, another crew of firefighters was entrapped and deployed their fire shelters. Updated information from the U.S. Forest Service is slightly different from what was originally released shortly after the incident. Andrew Madsen, an information officer for the fire, explained that of the 14 that were entrapped, three were flown to Community Regional Hospital in Fresno. One was initially in critical condition and the other two were in serious condition. As of today, September 11, the two that were serious have been released, and the critically injured individual is much better and is expected to be released in a day or two. Mr. Madsen said some of the other 11 members of the crew had “smoke inhalation” issues, but were evaluated at the scene and are OK. The crew was attempting to protect the Forest Service’s Nacimiento Fire station as the blaze approached.

Nacimiento Station
Nacimiento Station, satellite photo, September 7, 2018.

Update: September 20, 2020:

North Complex burnover
North Complex burnover

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Tom.

California passes bill to allow former inmates who served on fire crews to pursue a career in fire

AB2147 passes inmates fire crewsThe California legislature has passed a bill, AB 2147, that would allow former prisoners who worked on inmate fire crews to pursue a career in firefighting.

The  bill authored by Assemblywoman Eloise Gomez Reyes will allow nonviolent offenders who have logged time fighting fires on inmate crews while incarcerated, an opportunity to have their records expunged upon release, allowing them to become firefighters.

Released inmates who have successfully petitioned a judge to expunge their records and waive parole time, will also have the ability to apply for an emergency medical technician’s license.

Previously, California law has instructed emergency service agencies to deny EMT certification to anyone who has been convicted of two or more felonies, is on parole or probation, or has committed any kind of felony within the last decade.

COVID spreading through inmate crew camps and prisons this summer has cut the number of inmate crews available from 192 to 94. On July 9 California Governor Gavin Newsom said 12 inmate camps had to be quarantined due to the virus.

Compounding the firefighter shortage was the early release of thousands of state inmates to create more space in the facilities during the pandemic, and before that, the state’s initiative to reduce the incarceration of those jailed for lower-level offenses.

Firefighter’s family killed in structure fire

And unrelated, a firefighter died in a vehicle accident while commuting home

Four members of firefighter’s family killed in structure fire

The wife and three children of a wildland firefighter were killed in Washington while he was deployed on a wildfire.

Marcaria Garcia-Martinez, 32, her daughters Luz Garcia-Martinez, 17, and Michelle Garcia-Martinez, 6, and son Luis Garcia-Martinez, 15, died in the early morning  blaze on August 27.  They had just moved and were spending their first night in the single-wide trailer in Benton City, Washington. When sheriff deputies and firefighters arrived the home was almost completely consumed. The radiant heat from the fire was so intense that a nearby trailer also ignited, but deputies were able to rescue the residents of that home. Firefighters put out the fire and found the family members’ bodies while searching the trailer.

Raul Garcia-Santos, Garcia-Martinez’s husband and the children’s father, was assigned to the Palmer Fire in north-central Washington which has burned about 18,000 acres four miles south of the Canadian border. The fire has not been updated on InciWeb since September 30.

Firefighter dies in vehicle accident while commuting home

Sara Madsen. USFS photo.

A firefighter on the Helena Hotshot crew was killed in a vehicle accident in Idaho while commuting home after a fire assignment.

From the U. S. Forest Service, Caribou-Targhee National Forest September 3, 2020:

“Sara Madsen was an incredible person with a vivacious personality and a love for the outdoors. She began working in natural resources in our very own Teton Valley as a Youth Conservation Corp member, later moving into the fire program where she served as a crewmember on the Caribou-Targhee National Forest’s Centennial Type 2 Initial Attack Hand Crew from 2017 to 2019. 2020 was her first year as part of the Helena Hot Shot crew with the Helena-Lewis and Clark National Forest. Our firefighting community is heartbroken over this tragic loss and our condolences go out to Sara’s family, friends and coworkers.”

The Idaho State Police released the following information:

  • “On September 2, 2020, at approximately 12:21 a.m., Idaho State Police investigated a single-vehicle crash on SH32 near milepost 25 south of Ashton, in Fremont County.
  • Sara Madsen, 24, of Tetonia, was driving eastbound on SH32 in a 1999 Ford Ranger when her vehicle went off the right shoulder of the roadway and overturned.
  • Madsen was not wearing a seatbelt and was ejected from the vehicle. She succumbed to her injuries at the scene. Next of kin has been notified.”

Rest in peace, Sara Madsen, and the family of Raul Garcia-Santos.

Hot, dry weather brings elevated fire danger to much of the western U.S.

Labor Day Weekend

Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches September 5, 2020
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches September 5, 2020.

Hot, dry and in some cases windy weather will bring elevated wildfire danger to many of the western states through the Labor Day weekend.

Southern California

Extreme heat in southern California could set all-time high temperature records with the possibility of rolling power blackouts and more wildfires. Some of the inland cities could have temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal through Monday. The hottest days will be Saturday and Sunday, with slightly lower temperatures Monday. Riverside could see highs of 116 on Saturday and 118 on Sunday.

SoCal Red Flag Warnings September 5, 2020
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches in southern California, September 5, 2020.

Red Flag Warnings are in effect Saturday for portions of Riverside and San Diego Counties through Sunday at 6 p.m. Forecasters expect east winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph, with single-digit humidities in the afternoons.

Weather forecast for Riverside, California, September 5, 2020
Weather forecast for Riverside, California, September 5, 2020.

A Fire Weather Watch for the Los Angeles, Ventura County, and Santa Barbara mountains for Monday evening through Tuesday evening will probably be turned into a Red Flag Warning for gusty sundowner winds from the north or northeast at 15 to 25 mph with local gusts up to 40 mph Saturday, increasing to 15 to 30 mph with local gusts up to 45 mph Sunday evening and Monday evening. The strongest winds will be in the western portions of the Santa Ynez mountains and Santa Barbara south coast.

The National Weather Service did not mince any words in describing the forecast:

The very hot and unstable conditions will bring a significant threat of large plume dominated fires across the region through Labor Day.

Northwestern United States

A strong high pressure ridge centered across the western Great Basin Saturday will bring continued hot and dry conditions through the afternoon and early evening, with temperatures in the 90s and humidities below 15 percent, contributing to potentially extreme fire behavior given the very dry fuel conditions. In central Idaho and western Montana winds are expected to exceed 20-25 mph for several hours Saturday afternoon.

Smoke

Near Surface Smoke at 11 pm PDT September 5, 2020 fires
Near surface smoke at 11 p.m. PDT September 5, 2020.