New tool will help estimate wildfire risk

Researchers this week announced a new tool that can take some of the guesswork and resource limitations out of the equation when it comes to estimating wildfire risk.

Investigators with the National Centers for Environmental Information and the NASA DEVELOP National Program collaborated with a series of groups to create the tool that automatically processes satellite and weather station information. The Fire Risk Estimation tool — FIRE Tool for short — takes into consideration temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind observations and produces a single measurement of fire potential.

The new tool will be able to process data in almost real-time, determine when indicator thresholds are met or exceeded, and weigh how much each indicator would influence risk. From there, fire managers will be better able to more intently mobilize resources to high-risk areas — a tactic that until now was severely limited due to gaps in available information and computation.

“To create the FIRE tool, the team began with a list of indicators used to assess wildfire risk and the thresholds for each that would indicate higher risk,” researchers wrote in an online piece posted to NCEI. “Provided by fire managers in South Dakota, these initial indicators and thresholds were based on meteorological conditions that accompanied several large, complex wildfires in the past decade.”

A sample visualization of wildfire risk, via the National Centers for Environmental Information.
A sample visualization of wildfire risk, via the National Centers for Environmental Information.

Once the overall risk potential is calculated, information is plotted on a color-coded map spanning five categories — low to high.

From the NCEI report:

“This gives fire managers an overall view of risk in different locations, helping them quickly decide when and where to allocate their resources.”

The FIRE Tool was initially built for the Great Plains. However, experts say it can be modified to landscapes and geographical regions across the country.

Researchers worked with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Indian Affairs, and the South Dakota State Fire Meteorologist to create the tool.

 

Wednesday webinar to focus on wildfire response and management

A free webinar today is slated to address wildfire management and the alignment of fire operations with landscape planning objectives.

The event, hosted online by the Southwest Fire Science Consortium, lasts noon to 1 p.m. MST Wednesday and will be led by Christopher O’Connor with the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station.

From the event sign-up page:

“Part of the solution to dealing with the increasing complexity of wildfire management is to reduce uncertainties inherent within active fire management, where time-sensitive decisions often rely upon incomplete information. Breaking out of the wildfire paradox requires aligning the short-term operational objectives of incident responders with the longer term ecological and management objectives of landscape planning.”

The session is expected to focus on three specific topic areas. Among them, according to the event’s website:

  1. Using risk-based analysis to quantify the potential hazards and benefits of wildfire to the things we care about.
  2. Developing a network of potential fire control opportunities from characteristics identified from historical fire perimeters
  3. Leveraging these control opportunities and risk assessment outcomes to develop response strategies that align fire operations with landscape planning objectives.

To register, click on this link and follow the online registration form. And if you tune in, feel free to share highlights or your thoughts in the comments below.

Drones to help crews combat future Grand Canyon wildfires

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Above: A drone is used to assist wildlfire operations, as shown in this file photo from Bill Gabbert.

Wildland firefighters at Grand Canyon National Park have added drones to their toolkits, marking the latest iteration of unmanned aircraft systems’ love-hate relationship when it comes to wildfire. 

Rangers have started using drones to scout fires from above, the Grand Canyon News reported. From the article published Tuesday:

Justin Jager, interagency aviation officer for Grand Canyon National Park, Kaibab and Coconino National Forests and Flagstaff and Verde Valley Area National Monuments, said the drones are utilized in conjunction with traditional methods. Operators use the devices to scout fire lines, or communicate information to other personnel in the area.

The unmanned systems aren’t replacing fixed-wing scouting planes. Rather, they’re being used to search a fire’s outer edges and providing intelligence that can help establish stronger fire lines.

Also from the Grand Canyon News: 

“We’re taking what we’re learning and creating a guide for other agencies, like BLM (Bureau of Land Management) or other national parks to create their own programs,” Jager said. “I think they can all benefit from adding this tool.”

Drones and the Grand Canyon have been in the news for other reasons of late, most recently in assisting search and rescue operations for LouAnn Merrell and her step-grandson Jackson Standefer. Both went missing in April while on a hike — the boy’s body has since been recovered, though the woman has not yet been located.

Grand Canyon National Park is the only park with its own fleet of unmanned aircraft that can be used for locating people who have gotten lost, stranded, injured or killed. Under a program that began last fall, it has five drones and four certified operators, the Associated Press reported. 

The drones are about 18 inches across and 10 inches high, with a battery life of about 20 minutes. Drone operators watch the video in real time and then analyze it again at the end of the day.

As fire season revs up, so will conversations about the crossroads of the devices and wildfire. While crews have successfully used drones for recon and to aid in igniting prescribed burns, it’s only a matter of time until a curious hobbyist — once again — flies too close to firefighting operations.

The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has come out in the past supporting the U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Forest Service in their simple message to drone operators: If you fly; we can’t.

“Flying a drone near aerial firefighting aircraft doesn’t just pose a hazard to the pilots,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “When aircraft are grounded because an unmanned aircraft is in the vicinity, lives are put at greater risk.”

That didn’t matter. After a string of incidents last year, the FAA warned in a mass email to recreational drone operators that those “who interfere with wildfire suppression efforts are subject to civil penalties of up to $27,500 and possible criminal prosecution.”

Looking for more about the intersection of drones and wildfire? This dated, yet relevant, Smithsonian video below documents the use of the General Atomics MQ-1 Predator Drone in the August, 2013, Rim Fire in California.

Man arrested for allegedly starting fatal wildfire near Athens, Greece

A 28-year-old man has been arrested after his weekend brush-burning around a greenhouse ignited a destructive and deadly wildfire roughly 40 miles outside of Athens, Greece.

The fire, which started Sunday, burned a forested area and charred a house on the outskirts of Agioi Theodoroi, the Associated Press reported.

The victim is believed to have been an elderly woman who was reported missing earlier in the day. Two other people suffered burn-related injuries.

The man is accused of causing a fire through negligence while burning dried-out vegetation next to a greenhouse, the National Herald reported. 

 

Alaska couple acquitted in Sockeye Fire trial

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Above: Sockeye Fire. Photo by Mat-SU Borough spokesperson.

After just one day of deliberation, a jury last week acquitted an Alaska couple on all counts related to the destructive Sockeye Fire.

Amy DeWitt, 43, and Greg Imig, were charged with a dozen counts each related to the 2015 fire. Among them: second-degree negligent burning, burning without clearing the area, allowing the wildfire to spread and reckless endangerment, the Alaska Dispatch News reported. If convicted, they could have faced fines and jail time.

The three-week trial ended Friday when the six-person jury returned “not guilty” verdicts on all counts.

From the Alaska Dispatch News: 

In a prepared statement following the verdict, Imig told reporters the fire was “very costly” for the couple, in both the physical property lost and the price of defending themselves at trial. But he said it was necessary for the “real information” to come out.

“From the beginning, (DeWitt) and I have been forthright and honest and, frankly, this trial by the State of Alaska was wasteful and unneeded,” he read. “We knew we had to take this path to clear our name.”

Defense attorneys and private investigators maintained the state’s investigation was inconclusive as to the fire’s cause. They also cited the Wildfire Origin and Cause and Determination Handbook, arguing state investigators should have better documented the property and taken more steps to allay any “confirmation bias.”

The Sockeye Fire burned 7,220 acres and destroyed 55 homes.

A look inside the Upper Colorado River Fire Management Unit

Above: The dispatch and logistics building at Grand Junction as seen from one of the retardant pits.

Last week while in Grand Junction, Colorado I visited the headquarters for the Upper Colorado River Interagency Fire and Aviation Management Unit (UCR). The interagency organization handles wildland fire responsibilities for over 4.5 million acres of land in Colorado along the Interstate 70 corridor from the Continental Divide on the east to the Utah state line on the west. The UCR is comprised of the Glenwood Springs and Grand Junction Field Offices of the Bureau of Land Management; Grand Valley Ranger District of the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forests; and the White River National Forest.

Grand Junction Base
Sarah Culhane, Aviation Manager. The equipment behind her is used for mixing, storing, and pumping fire retardant.
Sarah Culhane, the Aviation Manager, and Christopher Joyner, a BLM Public Affairs Specialist, showed me around the facilities at the airport, including the Air Tanker Base and a building that houses the logistics and dispatching functions.

Grand Junction Base
One of the two retardant reload pits as seen from the Logistics office.
Typically Grand Junction is not used as an administrative base for any air tankers, but depending on the need they can be staged there in times of high wildfire potential or if it is needed as a retardant reload base during fire activity.

Reporting to Ms. Culhane this year at the tanker base will be a Base Manager, an Assistant Base Manager, a Ramp Manager, and an intern.

A similar situation exists for smokejumpers. Almost every year jumpers are positioned at Grand Junction along with an aircraft for extended periods of time.

Grand Junction Base
Robert Giron, Logistics Dispatcher and Intel.
Don Scronek, the Dispatch Center Manager, said in an average year they will have about 250 wildfires in the UCR, and a very busy year will see twice that many. While he was describing the dispatch organization I saw behind him on a white board in his office:

Hope is Not A Strategy

The UCR cooperates with state agencies, local communities and fire departments on a wide range of activities including fuels treatments, fire prevention and fire suppression.

In the UCR organization under Fire Management Officer Robert Berger and Deputy Unit FMO Josh Tibbetts, are three Zone FMOs for the West, Central, and East Zones.