News and opinion about wildland fire
Most of the United States has some degree of smoke due to the fires in the western states and Canada, but the lighter concentrations may not be noticeable to most residents. If you have red sunrises and sunsets, it could be because of the smoke. Above is the near-surface smoke forecast for 4 a.m. MDT August 5, 2021.
Below are the Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches, issued August 4, 2021.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Wildfire12 Comments on Dixie Fire spreads north, Sheriff orders evacuation of Chester, CA Very significant destruction of structures in Greenville, California Wednesday afternoon
7:13 p.m. PDT August 4, 2021
Reporters in Greenville, California have documented what one of them calls “widespread destruction” after the Dixie Fire ran through the town Wednesday. Much of the damage occurred around 5 p.m.
One scanner report said some law enforcement and fire personnel had to evacuate the area for their own safety.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Dixie Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.
We just entered Greenville on Hwy 89 This video was taken from Bidwell & Ann St. I’m so sorry for the town of Greenville. #DixieFire pic.twitter.com/vtAiYpy1Dl
— SoCalFirePhoto (@SoCalFirePhoto) August 5, 2021
2:57 p.m. PDT August 4, 2021
Above: the Dixie Fire seen from four cameras at 2:54 p.m. PDT August 4, 2021.
7:53 a.m. PDT August 4, 2021
The Dixie Fire was very active throughout Tuesday night, with most of the movement during the night occurring on the northwest side. During a mapping flight at 7 a.m. Wednesday two large fingers of fire spread north to within less than a mile of Highway 89. At that time there was a small spot fire three-quarters of a mile north of the highway, more than a mile out in front of the main fire.
Continue reading “Dixie Fire spreads north, Sheriff orders evacuation of Chester, CA”
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Wildfire1 Comment on Brush fire burns 40,000 acres on Hawaii’s Big Island 
A vegetation fire burned for about four days on Hawaii’s Big Island, blackening 40,000 acres according to estimates from fire officials. It is the largest brush fire on record for Hawaii County.
Evacuations were ordered for residents of three communities but have since been lifted.
The fire was reported Friday morning near Mana Road in Waimea and quickly prompted the evacuation of Pu’u Kapu Hawaiian Homestead and Waiki’i Ranch. Two homes in the Department of Hawaiian Homelands Puukapu Subdivision were destroyed.
When the fire was spreading rapidly it was pushed by 18 to 20 mph winds gusting to 40 mph.
“There are no longer threats to life and property and all roadways are open in both directions,” wrote Hawaii County Mayor Roth on Facebook Tuesday. The incident has been downgraded from an emergency situation to a normal fire operation he said.
The Drought Monitor reports that more than half of the island is in moderate to severe drought.
Hawaii Volcanoes National Park closed Hilina Pali and Mauna Loa roads to vehicle traffic due to the heightened fire danger.
“Staying safe while protecting the natural and cultural resources of the park is our top priority,” said park fire management officer Greg Funderburk. “Fire danger indexes in both areas are above the 90th percentile and any ignitions that occur would be difficult to suppress and likely to result in a large fire.”
The video below recorded heat detected by a satellite on the Big Island over a four day period. Hawaii is 10 hours behind UTC seen at upper left.
4 days of the mountain burning seen with #GOES17. Heart wrenching just to watch – but far less so than for Hawaiian homestead residents on the front lines of this beast pic.twitter.com/1HCWsbrbh1
— Clay Trauernicht (@claytrau) August 3, 2021
Temporary shift in policy due to extreme wildfire conditions in the West and competition for firefighting resources due in part to COVID-19 infections rising again
1:55 p.m. MDT August 3, 2021
In an August 2 letter to the field, new US Forest Service Chief Randy Moore said that because there is in a “national crisis”, they will not “manage fires for resource benefit”. In other words, instead of allowing fires to burn in order to replicate natural conditions and improve the ecosystem, they will put them out — at least to the best of their ability.
This year there are several factors that brought us to the crisis: competition for firefighting resources, a large number of incidents, firefighter numbers reduced by COVID-19 infections, and fire behavior enhanced by drought. It has all led to larger, longer-duration fires. Not mentioned by the Chief is the hundreds of vacant Forestry Technician positions. In early July there were 800 on National Forests in California alone.
During a virtual meeting July 27 with Western Governors to discuss wildfire preparedness, President Joe Biden was told that their states need more aviation resources, they need help with obtaining aviation fuel, they need more boots on the ground, and they encourage aggressive initial attack. The last item was referring to managing rather than suppressing fires. Governor Gavin Newsom referenced last month’s Tamarack Fire south of Lake Tahoe that was monitored but not suppressed. It stayed very small for 12 days until it grew rapidly, spreading east for 20 miles into Nevada, burning more than 68,000 acres and destroying 25 structures. On the August 3 National Situation Report it is still listed as a less than full suppression fire.
In declaring what is a temporary shift in policy until the Western fire season abates, Chief Moore cited numerous reasons for the change:
The 2021 fire year is different from any before. On July 14, 2021, the National Multi-Agency Coordination Group raised the national preparedness level (PL) to 5, the earliest point in a decade and the third earliest ever. There are currently over 70 large fires burning across the nation and 22,000 personnel responding, which are both nearly three times more than the 10-year average for the month of July. Severe drought is affecting over 70 percent of the West, and the potential for significant fire activity is predicted to be above normal into October. Our firefighters are fatigued, especially after more than a year of almost constant deployments, beginning with helping Australia in January 2020, and continuing through a difficult 2020 fire year and then supporting the vaccination effort in early 2021. In addition, COVID-19 infections are rising again. They are degrading our firefighting response capacity at an alarming rate, which will persist until more Americans are vaccinated.
In short, we are in a national crisis. At times like these, we must anchor to our core values, particularly safety. In PL 5, the reality is we are resource limited. The core tenet of the Forest Service’s fire response strategy is public and firefighter safety above all else. The current situation demands that we commit our fire resources only in instances where they have a high probability of success and they can operate safely and effectively. We will rely on the tested principles of risk management in determining our strategies and tactics.
Chief Moore said this was not a return to the “10 a.m. Policy” from 1935 which set as a goal stopping the spread of every fire by 10 a.m. the second day.
In addition, ignited prescribed fire operations will be considered only in geographic areas at or below Preparedness Level 2 and only with the approval of the Regional Forester after consulting with the Chief’s Office.
This directive only applies to the US Forest Service, and not to the four land management agencies in the Department of the Interior — National Park Service, Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and Bureau of Land Management. Of those four DOI agencies, only the NPS is into “managed fire” in a big way. We asked a spokesperson for the NPS if they were making a similar temporary change in policy, but they were unable to meet our publication deadline, “given how busy it is and the need to work with the Washington Office of Communications”. [Update at 5:06 p.m. August 3. NPS Branch Chief for Communication and Education Tina Boehle got back to us with information which indicated the agency is not making any changes in their fire strategies — without actually stating it specifically.]
Currently there is a less than full suppression fire burning in North Cascades National Park in Washington which has blackened 150 acres, and another that has burned 470 acres in Yosemite NP in California. There are 18 listed on the Situation Report on National Forests, with most of them being in the Northern Rockies Geographic Area.
A video produced by the Northern Rockies Fire Science Network posted on YouTube last year was intended to spark discussion about managing fire for resource benefit on public lands. It featured interviews with 22 fire practitioners, including Dick Bahr, National Park Service Program Lead for Fire Science and Ecology, who said:
We have really good modeling now. … If you’re not comfortable with where it’s going to get or you’re concerned about what it’s going to burn up — do you take on the fire, or do you take on protection of what you’re going to do? And now the big shift is, we have now the opportunity, go put the money and the effort into protecting that point you’re worried about losing and let the fire do what it’s supposed to do…
You’re going to win a few, you’re going to lose a few. And it’s OK to lose, but you’ve got to learn from them.
Edited at 5:06 p.m. MDT August 3 to include late arriving information from the NPS which indicated that the agency is not making any changes in their fire strategies.
In August and September, 2021
The forecast for wildland fire potential issued August 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and the mountainous areas of California will have above normal fire potential in August and September. Even into October much of the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and coastal mountains of Southern California will still be above normal.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of the CONUS, especially the West, into fall. The northern Intermountain West is likely to have drier than normal conditions in August, expanding to include most of the West during fall. Near normal precipitation is likely with the monsoon in August, which should continue to alleviate drought. However, drought is likely to expand and intensify across much of the West into fall.
“Much of Southern Area and areas south of the Ohio River are likely to have below normal significant fire potential through September, but much of the Southeast U.S. is forecast to have above normal fire potential in October and November. Normal significant fire potential is forecast for Alaska along with most of Eastern Area.
“Above normal significant fire potential is likely to remain in portions of northern Minnesota into August. Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to continue through September for much of the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and northern portions of the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas. Most of these areas will return to normal fire potential in October and November. Most mountains and foothills in California are forecast to have above normal potential through September with areas prone to offshore winds likely to retain above normal potential into October and November in southern California. Leeside locations in Hawaii are likely to have above normal significant fire potential into October.”
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Wildfire1 Comment on Multiple fires in Northwest California have broken out in recent days Many fires started from lightning July 29
Lightning-caused fires, many of which started July 29, are starting to cover large portions of Northwest California with smoke. Monday afternoon the GOES 17 satellite in geosynchronous orbit 22,300 miles above the Earth could easily detect the heat from four large fires in the extreme northwest corner of the state, as well as their extensive smoke plumes.
The fact that the River Complex of fires on the Klamath National Forest is comprised of 19 fires at last count, can give you an idea what might be out there on that forest as well as the nearby Six Rivers and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. Monday afternoon the Siskiyou County Sheriff’s Office ordered evacuations for Taylor Creek Road and surrounding areas. Some of the larger fires in the complex include, Haypress, 600 acres; Summer, 75 acres; Cronan, 165 acres; and Packers, 50 acres.
Two large fires are already well established on the Shasta-T, the McFarland and Monument Fires. Today, Monday, two or three other fires further north show up on the satellite photo.
I picked a random location for a weather forecast, 18 miles ESE of Orleans, CA and found that the conditions through Sunday August 8 will be conducive to continued fire spread with the relative humidity in the teens or low twenties, moderate wind speeds, and no chance of precipitation.
Since the middle of May the Energy Release Component at Hayfork has been hovering above or below the highest levels ever recorded at that site. The ERC is an index related to how hot a fire could burn. Extremely dry vegetation is one of the factors that can lead to high ERC levels.
With over 22,000 personnel already tied up on 72 un-contained wildfires in the country it may not be easy to staff many additional large fires.
The US Forest Service has already exhausted the list of large air tankers that are available on USFS call when needed contracts — it turned out to only be five, instead of the 16 or more the Forest Service described earlier this year. The only ones left are three military C-130’s with slip-in Modular Airborne FireFighting Systems, which for some reason have not been activated.
