Wildfire potential is expected to be above normal this Fall in the Southeast
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued August 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center for August through November predicts that the northwestern states will have above normal potential through September. In October and November that distinction shifts to California and the southeast.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“August represents the peak of fire season for the West and Above Normal significant fire potential is expected across much of the Great Basin, northern California, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies. The North American Monsoon is forecast to remain intermittent, which will provide chances of lightning without moisture surges extending into portions of the Great Basin, California, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies. Given the dry fuels, any lightning will likely result in increased fire activity and above normal significant large fire potential into September.
“As precipitation and cooler temperatures arrive in fall, areas of concern will shift southward to portions of California as offshore wind events become more likely. Without a robust monsoon and potentially delayed fall precipitation, fuels will remain very dry across much of California. With ENSO-neutral to potentially La Niña conditions, an increase of frequency of offshore wind events are possible. Additionally, drier than normal conditions are likely across much of the Southern Area given current long-term weather and climatological trends. However, an active hurricane season is a source of uncertainty.”
(We confirmed that the October graphic above was issued August 1, 2020 not July 1, 2020 as indicated. It is a typo.)
Outlook for temperature and precipitation in September, October, and November. Prepared July 16, 2020. NOAA.Drought Monitor July 28, 2020
Map of the Apple Fire, showing the perimeter (in red) at 9 p.m. PDT August 3, 2020, The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours before.
The growth of the Apple Fire north of Beaumont and Banning in southern California slowed Monday. It chewed through approximately 1,000 more acres primarily on the east side across the head of the Mill Creek Canyon and east into the San Gorgonio Wilderness. The vegetation it is moving into is sparse in some areas, especially in the higher elevations at 8,000 to 11,00o feet. Monday evening the incident management team reported 26,850 acres burned, but that number could be adjusted after they consult the mapping flight conducted at 9 p.m. Monday.
Investigators have concluded the fire was caused by hot carbon particles from the exhaust system of a diesel-powered truck, which is not an uncommon cause of vegetation fires along roadways. All internal combustion engines emit carbon particles and is why spark arrestors are required on chain saws, for example. Carbon particles from diesel engines can be much larger than particles from small engines or those powered by gasoline, and may exceed one inch. Witnesses corroborated the investigators findings. At least three ignition points were found which all merged into one fire.
Damage assessment teams are deployed and will be surveying the fire area for damage to structures and infrastructure.
Evacuation information for Riverside County Residents can be found at www.rivcoready.org/ActiveEvents.
In San Bernardino County, the community of Oak Glen is under an evacuation order. Forest Falls, Pioneertown, and Rim Rock are all under an evacuation warning.
3-D map of the Apple Fire, showing the perimeter (in red) at 9 p.m. PDT August 3, 2020, The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours before.
This is why at Wildfire Today we do not repeat the containment percentages given out by fire officials. From NBCLosAngeles today:
Earlier Sunday morning, fire officials said progress had been made and the blaze was 12% contained. However in a later update after U.S. Forest Service took over command, fire officials said the blaze was 0% contained.
On Sunday thousands of people had been busting their asses on the fire for three days, and the U.S. Forest Service basically said not a single foot of fire perimeter had a good fireline.
Resources on the Apple Fire Monday included 31 hand crews, 321 fire engines, 28 dozers, 12 helicopters, 2 small fixed wing planes, 50 water tenders, and a variable number of air tankers for a total of 2,565 personnel.
Originally published August 3, 2020 | 11:31 a.m. PDT
3-D map of the Apple Fire, showing the perimeter (in red) at 7:45 p.m. PDT August 2, 2020, Looking north. The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours before.
The Apple fire burned actively Sunday, primarily to the north and east. Much of the fire activity is being driven by the record low moisture content of the vegetation in the area combined with high temperatures and low relative humidity. These conditions are contributing to active fire behavior both day and night.
The fire started July 31 near Cherry Valley, California and is spreading north of Beaumont and Banning.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Apple Fire, including the most recent, click here.)
A mapping flight Sunday evening at 7:45 determined that the fire had burned 24,830 acres, an increase of about 10,000 acres in 24 hours. At about 11 a.m. the incident management team announced it had grown to 26,450 acres.
Sunday night and early Monday morning the fire was very active. Multiple spot fires ignited on the north side which were attacked by a night-vision equipped helicopter. Two of the spot fires were caught but one grew significantly and will be assessed.
The Apple fire is burning in an area with no recent fire history. It is expected to burn into less dense fuels as it progresses. Firefighters on the ground and in the air are building fireline directly on the fire’s edge where possible and are protecting structures in local communities. The extremely steep slopes and elevations up to 11,000 feet make this a challenging assignment for firefighters.
Map of the Apple Fire, showing the perimeter (in red) at 7:45 p.m. PDT August 2, 2020, The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours before.
Evacuation information for Riverside County residents is available at the county website where residents can enter an address to see if they are in an evacuation area.
In San Bernardino County, the community of Oak Glen is under an evacuation order. Forest Falls, Pioneer Town, and Rim Rock are all under an evacuation warning.
Apple Fire, San Bernardino NF, August 2, 2020. Screenshot from ABC7 video.
The weather forecast for Monday calls for more of the same conditions that have led to rapid growth of the fire — 91 to 96 degrees, 15 to 20 percent relative humidity, and ridgetop winds out of the west at 20 mph.
It is difficult for meteorologists to create a forecast for a fire like this. It is on very steep topography that ranges from 3,400 feet at Cherry Valley to 11,503 feet at the top of Mount San Gorgonio.
A steep slope at high elevation on the Apple Fire, San Bernardino NF, August 2, 2020. Screenshot from ABC7 video.
Near-surface wildfire smoke forecast for 4 a.m. PDT August 3, 2020. NOAA HRRR-Smoke.
Smoke from southern California’s 20,000-acre Apple Fire is predicted to move north overnight Sunday. Monday morning it is expected to affect areas in areas of Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho.
The map above created by NOAA is for near-surface smoke which can affect humans more than vertically integrated smoke higher in the atmosphere.
NOAA predicts that a new fire in north-central Oregon, the Fir Mountain Road Fire seven miles south-southeast of Hood River, will produce smoke that will move into eastern Oregon, southeast Washington, and eastern Idaho. The fire started Saturday night, and Sunday morning was estimated at 70 acres. It seems surprising that it could be generating such a large quantity of smoke, however it is burning in slash piles from recent logging, as well as adjacent standing timber.
Fir Mountain Road Fire. Oregon Department of Forestry photo August 2, 2020.
Air Tanker 15, a BAe-146, drops on the Apple Fire August 2, 2020. Screenshot from ABC7 video.
A television station in Los Angeles, ABC 7, has occasionally been live-streaming video shot from a helicopter over the Apple Fire. The station has posted on YouTube 68 minutes of video that was shot today, August 2. I did not have the time to watch all of it, but I jumped around sampling different segments and found it to be fascinating. The video is below, and I have included a few screenshots.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Apple Fire, including the most recent, click here.)
I am not sure (and someone correct me if I’m wrong) but I think in the photo below, the highest point on the left, the white barren area, is Mount San Gorgonio, the highest peak in Southern California and the Transverse Ranges at 11,503 feet.
Apple Fire, San Bernardino National Forest, August 2, 2020. Screenshot from ABC7 video.Air Tanker 914, a DC-10, drops on the Apple Fire August 2, 2020. Screenshot from ABC7 video.Apple Fire, San Bernardino National Forest, August 2, 2020; looking west across the San Gorgonio River. Screenshot from ABC7 video.Air Tanker 137, a B-737, drops on the Apple Fire August 2, 2020. Screenshot from ABC7 video.
Areas predicted to be affected Sunday include southeast California, northern Arizona, southern Utah, and parts of Colorado and New Mexico
August 2, 2020 | 9:30 a.m. PDT
Forecast by NOAA for the distribution of smoke created by the Apple Fire in southern California at 2 p.m. PDT August 2, 2020.
The Apple Fire north of Beaumont and Banning in southern California has been burning vigorously and creating a very large amount of smoke since it started at 5 p.m. July 31. The map above is a prediction by NOAA for the distribution of wildfire smoke at 2 p.m. PDT today, August 2. It predicts that areas significantly affected will include southeast California, northern Arizona, southern Utah, and parts of Colorado and New Mexico.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Apple Fire, including the most recent, click here.)
The size of the Apple Fire is uncertain because the north side of the fire could not be completely mapped at 8:30 p.m. Saturday by the fixed wing aircraft due to the very large convection column of smoke and heat over the fire. But the crew was able to map 15,000 acres of the blaze.
Satellite photo by GOES-17 of smoke created by the Apple Fire in southern California at 7 a.m. PDT August 2, 2020. NASA.
The fire has burned 20,516 acres in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties
August 2, 2020 | Updated at 11:21 a.m. PDT
3-D map of the Apple Fire, showing the perimeter at 8:30 p.m. PDT August 1, 2020. The north side of the fire could not be completely mapped at that time by the fixed wing aircraft due to the convection column over the fire.
The Apple Fire north of Beaumont and Banning in southern California was very active Saturday afternoon and continued to spread well into the night. A fixed wing aircraft attempted to map the fire at 8:30 p.m. Saturday and was not able to completely gather intelligence on the north side due to a vigorous convection column of smoke and heat in that area. The crew on the aircraft was able to confirm that at least 15,000 acres had burned at that time. That was updated by the incident management team at about 10 a.m. PDT to 20,516 acres.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Apple Fire, including the most recent, click here.)
Several evacuation orders are in effect for the Apple Fire. Visit the Riverside County website to see a map of the evacuation areas or to determine if your address is affected.
The wind Saturday and Saturday night was consistent, blowing from the west at 11 to 14 mph and gusting to 18 mph. Combined with the steep south-facing slopes, the fire spread uphill north toward San Gorgonio Mountain and east parallel with Interstate 10 north of Banning.
The red line was the perimeter of the Apple Fire mapped by a fixed wing aircraft at 8:30 p.m. PDT August 1, 2020. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 2:48 a.m. PDT August 2, 2020. The north side of the fire could not be completely mapped by the fixed wing aircraft due to the convection column of smoke and heat over the fire.
The Apple Fire is well established east of the San Gorgonio River. Approximately 80 percent of the fire is in the San Bernardino National Forest and a portion of the southeast perimeter has spread into the Morongo Reservation. The remainder is on land protected by the state and the counties of Riverside and San Bernardino.
A Type 1 Incident Management Team has been ordered to assume command of the fire.
Current resources on the fire include 20 hand-crews, 6 helicopters, 178 fire engines, and 19 water tenders. A variable number of air tankers are available to the fire as well, depending on other wildfire activity. There are also a number of unfilled resource orders, and some are responding that are not yet on-scene.
The incident management team expects fire activity to remain high Sunday.
The weather forecast for the Cherry Valley area on Sunday is for 95 degrees, 10 to 15 percent relative humidity, and afternoon winds from the west at 4 to 7 mph gusting to 12 mph, with ridgetop speeds of 15 to 20 mph. Firefighters would not consider these conditions extreme, but they could indicate weather conducive to additional fire spread.
Apple Fire, looking northeast from Elsinore Mountain at 1:26 a.m. August 2, 2020. Via @CAFireScanner.Apple Fire August 1, 2020, from Noble Creek Park, Beaumont, CA. US Forest Service photo by Zach Behrens.
