News and opinion about wildland fire
The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings for May 22 in areas of California, Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Maine. Most of the areas will experience strong winds and low humidities, resulting in enhanced wildfire danger.
(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)
BY JOSIE GARTHWAITE
As California and the American West head into fire season amid the coronavirus pandemic, scientists are harnessing artificial intelligence and new satellite data to help predict blazes across the region.
Anticipating where a fire is likely to ignite and how it might spread requires information about how much burnable plant material exists on the landscape and its dryness. Yet this information is surprisingly difficult to gather at the scale and speed necessary to aid wildfire management.
Now, a team of experts in hydrology, remote sensing and environmental engineering have developed a deep-learning model that maps fuel moisture levels in fine detail across 12 western states, from Colorado, Montana, Texas and Wyoming to the Pacific Coast.
The researchers describe their technique in the August 2020 issue of Remote Sensing of Environment. According to the senior author of the paper, Stanford University ecohydrologist Alexandra Konings, the new dataset produced by the model could “massively improve fire studies.”
According to the paper’s lead author, Krishna Rao, a PhD student in Earth system science at Stanford, the model needs more testing to figure into fire management decisions that put lives and homes on the line. But it’s already illuminating previously invisible patterns. Just being able to see forest dryness unfold pixel by pixel over time, he said, can help reveal areas at greatest risk and “chart out candidate locations for prescribed burns.”
The work comes at a time of growing urgency for this kind of insight, as climate change extends and intensifies the wildfire season – and as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic complicates efforts to prevent large fires through controlled burns, prepare for mass evacuations and mobilize first responders.
Getting a read on parched landscapes
Fire agencies today typically gauge the amount of dried-out, flammable vegetation in an area based on samples from a small number of trees. Researchers chop and weigh tree branches, dry them out in an oven and then weigh them again. “You look at how much mass was lost in the oven, and that’s all the water that was in there,” said Konings, an assistant professor of Earth system science in Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). “That’s obviously really laborious, and you can only do that in a couple of different places, for only some of the species in a landscape.”
The U.S. Forest Service painstakingly collects this plant water content data at hundreds of sites nationwide and adds them to the National Fuel Moisture Database, which has amassed some 200,000 such measurements since the 1970s. Known as live fuel moisture content, the metric is well established as a factor that influences wildfire risk. Yet little is known about how it varies over time from one plant to another – or from one ecosystem to another.
For decades, scientists have estimated fuel moisture content indirectly, from informed but unproven guesses about relationships between temperature, precipitation, water in dead plants and the dryness of living ones. According to Rao, “Now, we are in a position where we can go back and test what we’ve been assuming for so long – the link between weather and live fuel moisture – in different ecosystems of the western United States.”
AI with a human assist
The new model uses what’s called a recurrent neural network, an artificial intelligence system that can learn to recognize patterns in vast mountains of data. The scientists trained their model using field data from the National Fuel Moisture Database, then put it to work estimating fuel moisture from two types of measurements collected by spaceborne sensors. One involves measurements of visible light bouncing off Earth. The other, known as synthetic aperture radar (SAR), measures the return of microwave radar signals, which can penetrate through leafy branches all the way to the ground surface.
“One of our big breakthroughs was to look at a newer set of satellites that are using much longer wavelengths, which allows the observations to be sensitive to water much deeper into the forest canopy and be directly representative of the fuel moisture content,” said Konings, who is also a center fellow, by courtesy, at Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.
To train and validate the model, the researchers fed it three years of data for 239 sites across the American west starting in 2015, when SAR data from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellites became available. They checked its fuel moisture predictions in six common types of land cover, including broadleaf deciduous forests, needleleaf evergreen forests, shrublands, grasslands and sparse vegetation, and found they were most accurate – meaning the AI predictions most closely matched field measurements in the National Fuel Moisture Database – in shrublands.
Rich with aromatic herbs like rosemary and oregano, and often marked by short trees and steep, rocky slopes, shrublands occupy as much as 45 percent of the American West. They’re not only the region’s biggest ecosystem, Rao said, “they are also extremely susceptible to frequent fires since they grow back rapidly.” In California, fires whipped to enormous size by Santa Ana winds burn in a type of shrubland known as chaparral. “This has led fire agencies to monitor them intensively,” he said.
The model’s estimates feed into an interactive map that fire agencies may eventually be able to use to identify patterns and prioritize control measures. For now, the map offers a dive through history, showing fuel moisture content from 2016 to 2019, but the same method could be used to display current estimates. “Creating these maps was the first step in understanding how this new fuel moisture data might affect fire risk and predictions,” Konings said. “Now we’re trying to really pin down the best ways to use it for improved fire prediction.”
Konings is also Assistant Professor, by courtesy, of Geophysics in Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences. Co-author A. Park Williams is affiliated with Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. Co-author Jacqueline Fortin Flefil, MS ’18, is now an engineer at Xylem, Inc.
The research was supported by Amazon Web Services (AWS) Cloud Credits for Research, the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship, the UPS Endowment Fund at Stanford, the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, and the Zegar Family Foundation.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized3 Comments on Alberta hired an additional 200 wildland firefighters this year An Incident Management Team developed a response plan for the COVID-19 pandemic
Alberta Wildfire has hired an extra 200 firefighters for the 2020 season in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Their objectives in wildfire suppression remain to contain the spread of a fire spread by 10:00 a.m. the following day, and to initiate suppression before the fire exceeds two hectares (4.9 acres) in size.
Like their counterparts in the United States, the agency tasked an Incident Management Team to develop a response plan to ensure they can safely and effectively manage wildfires during the pandemic. They reviewed how the agency fights wildfire and adopted best practices on physical distancing, hygiene, travel, and isolation.
All firefighters will complete a screening form prior to starting each shift.
Special procedures have been established for fire camps:
A fire ban was introduced in the Forest Protection Area of Alberta as well as in Alberta Provincial Parks to reduce the number of human-caused wildfires and help firefighters focus on existing wildfires. An off-highway vehicle restriction was also introduced using a phased approach based on hazard. The fines for not complying with a fire ban or OHV restriction were doubled, to further reduce the number of human-caused wildfires.
In addition to these deterrents, the Government of Alberta announced an investment of $5 million to create an extra 200 firefighting positions. An additional $20 million in FireSmart funding was announced to go towards projects that will reduce the risk to communities caused by wildfire.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Wildfire2 Comments on Fire in southern New Jersey expected to burn 2,100 acres The Big Timber Fire had burned 250 acres at 6 p.m. Tuesday
Fire officials with the New Jersey Forest Fire Service expect the Big Timber Fire in the southern part of the state to burn about 2,100 acres by the time the fire is contained within planned control lines.
The fire is 31 miles northwest of Atlantic City and 13 miles northeast of Vineland.
The fire was detected Tuesday at 1:30 p.m. by personnel in two fire lookout towers. Their azimuth readings intersected near the Blue Anchor Fire Line in the Winslow Wildlife Management Area, Winslow Township in Camden County.
The Big Timber Fire is burning in heavy brush and timber and has jumped across the Egg Harbor River. At 6 p.m. Tuesday it had burned about 250 acres.
Strong gusty winds are hindering containment efforts. The forecast is for east-northeast winds to continue through Tuesday night at 13 to 17 mph with the relative humidity in the 50s. On Wednesday the winds will be about the same as the RH dips into the low 40s in the afternoon with a high temperature of 59. Cloud cover Tuesday night and on Wednesday should be 85 to 90 percent.
Residents in Baltimore and possibly Washington, DC, 90 and 115 miles away respectively, might smell the smoke Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized15 Comments on Senators request PPE and testing for wildland firefighters 
Three U.S. Senators sent a letter to Vice President Mike Pence today urging the Coronavirus Task Force to help secure personal protective equipment (PPE) and COVID-19 testing kits for firefighters and federal law enforcement personnel tasked with wildfire response.
Below are excerpts from the letter crafted by Senators Lisa Murkowski, Alaska; Joe Manchin, West Virginia; and Tom Udall, New Mexico.
“Peak fire season comes closer every day. However, it is our understanding that the supply of PPE in the Federal interagency inventories does not meet the expected need, and firefighters are having trouble acquiring additional PPE on their own. We also understand that many of the available testing methods may not be conducive for wide scale use.
“We ask that resources be used to develop and support an effective system of COVID-19 testing tailored to protecting firefighter health and maintaining the cohesiveness of federal wildland fire response.
“Wildland fires often occur in rural and remote areas, and already-taxed rural and tribal health services should not be expected to have the resources to manage COVID-19 cases coming from an active fire camp or when crews arrive in their hometowns after demobilizing from a fire.
“Firefighters and fire support staff put their lives on the line every day to protect us, and we need to make every effort to protect them from this virus, so they can safely fight fires and return to their families when the fires are out.”
Murkowski is Chairman of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee and the Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment and Related Agencies. Manchin is the Ranking Member of the committee and Udall is Ranking Member on the Appropriations Subcommittee.
Most wildland fire organizations have reduced or eliminated indoor meetings, training sessions, and air travel in order to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Research and real world experiences are coming to light illustrating why this is a good decision.
The COVID-19 virus becomes airborne by talking and can spread through the air staying aloft for 8-14 minutes according to one study, or perhaps for hours according to another. Air conditioning can cause droplets containing the virus to travel around a room. There is much less risk when personnel are outside, since the droplets can be dispersed.
The longer a person is exposed to a contaminated atmosphere, the greater is the risk of introducing more virus than their body can easily handle. A short exposure may have no obvious effect, but if it is longer the disease could gain a foothold that can be difficult or impossible to fight off.
Here is an excerpt from a study published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The above illustration is from the article.
Abstract
During January 26–February 10, 2020, an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in an air-conditioned restaurant in Guangzhou, China, involved 3 family clusters. The airflow direction was consistent with droplet transmission. To prevent the spread of the virus in restaurants, we recommend increasing the distance between tables and improving ventilation.From January 26 through February 10, 2020, an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVD-19) affected 10 persons from 3 families (families A–C) who had eaten at the same air-conditioned restaurant in Guangzhou, China. One of the families had just traveled from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. We performed a detailed investigation that linked these 10 cases together. Our study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
On January 23, 2020, family A traveled from Wuhan and arrived in Guangzhou. On January 24, the index case-patient (patient A1) ate lunch with 3 other family members (A2–A4) at restaurant X. Two other families, B and C, sat at neighboring tables at the same restaurant. Later that day, patient A1 experienced onset of fever and cough and went to the hospital. By February 5, a total of 9 others (4 members of family A, 3 members of family B, and 2 members of family C) had become ill with COVID-19.
The only known source of exposure for the affected persons in families B and C was patient A1 at the restaurant. We determined that virus had been transmitted to >1 member of family B and >1 member of family C at the restaurant and that further infections in families B and C resulted from within-family transmission.
A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences determined that droplets from speech can stay aloft for 8-14 minutes.
Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments.
From an Associated Press article — a different COVID virus in very small aerosols “remained suspended in the air almost indefinitely”.
Since the aerosol particles produced by talking and breathing are so small, they linger in the air for relatively long periods of time before gravity pulls them to the ground. This allows them to be transported over greater distances. A 2006 study of SARS-CoV-1 found that particles with a diameter of 1-3 µm remained suspended in the air almost indefinitely, particles 10 µm in size took 17 minutes, and 20 µm took 4 minutes to fall to the floor. A recent laboratory study found that the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours (it remained viable for the entire three-hour duration of the study) and on surfaces for up to days.
And finally, a study published by the CDC about a choir practice in Skagit County, Washington.
Among 61 persons who attended a March 10 choir practice at which one person was known to be symptomatic, 53 cases were identified, including 33 confirmed and 20 probable cases (secondary attack rates of 53.3% among confirmed cases and 86.7% among all cases). Three of the 53 persons who became ill were hospitalized (5.7%), and two died (3.7%). The 2.5-hour singing practice provided several opportunities for droplet and fomite transmission, including members sitting close to one another, sharing snacks, and stacking chairs at the end of the practice. The act of singing, itself, might have contributed to transmission through emission of aerosols, which is affected by loudness of vocalization.
