Oregon Department of Transportation workers remove a hazardous tree on the Canyon Creek Complex of fires near US Highway 395.
On Tuesday the Canyon Creek Complex of fires grew by over 4,000 acres and has now burned 48,200 acres (see the map below). Most of the growth was on the south side, but it also expanded west of Highway 385.
The Grant County Sheriff’s office reports that 36 residences have burned and 50 structures have been damaged.
The firefighting resources battling the fire include 826 personnel, 18 hand crews, 7 helicopters, 46 fire engines, 14 dozers, 5 skidgines, and 16 water tenders.
The fire is being managed by the Great Basin Incident Management Team (Incident Commander Lund) and the Oregon State Fire Marshal Red Team (Incident Commander Walker).
The south and southwest sides of the fire were very active Tuesday. Fire crews and dozers worked in the area, while heavy air tankers dropped fire retardant. The fire has burned south of the Dry Soda Lookout, along the 3925 Road and across Thompson Gulch on the Forest.
The red line was the perimeter of the Canyon Creek Fire at 11 p.m. PT, Aug 18, 2015. The white line was from about 24 hours before.
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(Originally published at 6:24 p.m. PT, August 18, 2015)
A crew works along a road on the west side of the Canyon Creek Complex of fires. Undated photo from InciWeb.
Since the Canyon Creek Complex of fires started in central Oregon on August 12 it has burned 36 structures and over 43,738 acres. Currently it is one mile south of Canyon City and 2.5 miles south of John Day, Oregon. (see the map below)
The Regional Office in U.S. Forest Service Region 6, comprised of Washington and Oregon, distributed an update on the wildfire situation to USFS retirees. Below are some excerpts from the message, dated August 13.
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“…As predicted, initial attack (IA) was heavy across the region yesterday and into today. Many new and extended attack fires grew steadily, and in some cases, quite dramatically. Wednesday saw 32 new fires in Oregon for 9,738 acres while Washington had 58 new fires for 1,426 acres. The most concerning of these is the Stickpin on the Colville National Forest . There is continued concern for the National Complex, the Cornet/Windy Ridge, and Cougar Creek. Four Type I teams are assigned in the region at the Wolverine Fire on the Okanogan-Wenatchee, the National Complex on the Rogue River-Siskiyou, Umpqua and Crater Lake National Park, the Stouts Creek also on the Umpqua, and finally at Cornet/Windy Ridge out on the Wallowa-Whitman. IA resources are stretched thin and many Type III teams are managing challenging fire situations while Type I and II teams get in place. For more information on specific incidents, please visit the INCIweb: inciweb.nwcg.gov
The regional situation is all juxtaposition with the fact that nationally, there are 73 (and counting) uncontained large fires. More than 19,000 U.S. Forest Service and other federal, state, and local wildland firefighters; more than 100 helicopters; and 25 large airtankers are working to suppress wildland fires. Over the last week however, of the more than 1,200 new fires reported on National Forest System and other federal, state, and private land nationwide, about 50 – just 4% – became large fires. This is a testament to those tremendous IA efforts. An interesting point here in the Pacific Northwest though is that many of the large fires are burning into fire scars, some as recent as 2013. We are finding that old fire scars are not slowing the progress of fire spread this year. I think this represents another example of how fire behavior is not as it once was and the unpredictably we now face…”
Fire managers are calling the Soda fire southwest of Boise, Idaho, 90 percent contained.
The demobilization process will begin today, August 18, and most firefighting resources will be reassigned to other fires in the west. The remaining crews and engines will continue to patrol, look for any smokes, and assist in the rehabilitation of containment lines.
As the Soda Fire nears 100% containment, a federal Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) Team is being convened to begin field work as early as Wednesday. The BAER Team of natural resource specialists will assess damage and design emergency stabilization and rehabilitation treatments for BLM lands. This assessment focuses on mitigating threats to life, property, and resources within the burned area over the next 3 years.
The Rocky Mountain Incident Management Team will be transitioning the Soda Fire to a local BLM Type 3 Team at 6am Wednesday, August 19, 2015.
This will be our last update on the Soda Fire unless there is a significant upward change in fire activity.
Map of the Soda Fire (red line) at 9 p.m. MT, August 14, 2015. The brown and red dots represent heat detected by a satellite as late as 10:05 p.m. MT, August 14, 2015. The fire was actively spreading near the location of the red dots at that time — the red dots were the most current. (click to enlarge)
Friday evening the Soda Fire only had one area that with a large amount of fire activity, and that was on the southeast side where the fire was spreading to the southeast in the direction of Murphy, Idaho. This fire is very hard for heat-sensing mapping systems to track because in many areas the vegetation is grass or light brush that ignites, burns up quickly, and may cool off before an infrared aircraft or heat-sensing satellite passes over.
The fire has burned about 265,000 acres.
From InciWeb, August 14, 2015:
The Owyhee County Dispatch issued notification for residents to prepare for evacuations in the Bailey Road, Reynolds Road near feedlot, China Ditch, and Wilson Creek due to extreme fire behavior caused by high winds and terrain that is aligned with the wind. Highway 78 open at this time.
There is limited air support at this time due to the very high winds (30-40 mph). A very large air tanker was used throughout the day in conjunction with crews and dozers to construct containment lines along the Willow and Reynolds Creek areas.
Friday afternoon the wind was gusting at 30 to 43 mph out of the southwest and later the northwest, while the relative humidity got as low as 8 percent at 7 p.m. The forecast on Saturday for the southeast portion of the fire is for 81 degrees, 18 percent RH, mostly sunny skies, and 10 mph winds from the northwest shifting to the north in the afternoon. With the lower wind speeds on Saturday the fire should not spread as quickly as it did Friday afternoon.
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(UPDATED at 12:36 p.m. MT, August 14, 2015)
A tweet by KBOI at about 10:30 a.m. MT, August 14, 2015.
At 2 a.m. on August 14, the Owyhee County Sheriffs office recommended (but did not require) an evacuation near the Soda Fire for the Wilson Creek area south of Hwy 78 at milepost 16 through 18 due to increased fire activity. This area includes the Gibbons Hot Springs and the Hard Trigger Road. The Sheriff is asking people to please be prepared to evacuate. There are no mandatory evacuation orders in place on the Soda Fire.
The blaze is burning grass and sagebrush in Oregon and Idaho 14 miles southwest of Caldwell and 11 miles southwest of Nampa, Idaho (see the map below). The incident management team reports it has now blackened 265,000 acres.
Friday could be a big day on the fire, and dangerous for firefighters. The area is under a Red Flag Warning from noon on Friday until midnight for southwesterly winds reaching 18 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon. Friday night the wind will shift to come out of the west and then the northwest. The relative humidity will dip to 10 to 15 percent Friday afternoon.
You can monitor the weather conditions updated once an hour at the Owyhee weather station, 5 miles west of the northern end of the fire. At 11:52 a.m. on Friday it recorded 85 degrees, 14 percent humidity, and southwest winds of 8 mph gusting to 17 mph.
The red line represents the perimeter of the Soda Fire as mapped by an aircraft at 2 a.m. MT Aug 14, 2015. The white line was the perimeter the day before, and was an estimate Wildfire Today developed based on heat detected by a satellite.
Strong winds Thursday night caused increased fire activity in the Reynolds Creek and Wilson Creek drainages on the southeast flank of the fire. Over 300 additional firefighting resources were put in place to reinforce the line through the night.
The Rocky Mountain Type 1 Incident Management Team led by Incident Commander Todd Pechota will shadow Great Basin Incident Management Team 5 Friday in preparation for assuming command of the southern section of the fire Saturday morning.
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(UPDATED at 5:50 p.m. MT, August 13, 2015)
Satellite image of the Map showing the Soda Fire, August 13, 2015, showing smoke drifting toward the northwest. The red dots represent heat. NASA.
The photo above shows smoke that is being created by the fires in northern California and southwest Oregon. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite on the fires. Generally to the west, or left, of the red dots you can see the white smoke being blown to the west. The rest of the white on the image is clouds. Click on the image to see a larger version.
The satellite image was captures in the late afternoon on Friday.
The Rocky Fire is threatening towns northwest of Sacramento, California, including Clearlake, Lower Lake, and Twin Lake.
Dozens of new lightning-caused fires have been detected in the last 24 hours on the Shasta-Trinity National Forest between Redding and Eureka, California in northwest California.
The Stouts Fire 10 miles east of Canyonville, Oregon exploded to 6,500 acres within 12 hours after it started on Thursday.
To see the most current smoke reports on Wildfire Today, visit the articles tagged “smoke” at https://wildfiretoday.com/tag/smoke/
(Originally published at 9:48 a.m. PT, July 31, 2015, updated at 6:12 p.m. PT, July 31, 2015)
Smoke from the Stouts and Cable Crossing Fires, 7-31-2015.Stouts Fire east of Canyonville, Oregon, July 30, 2015. InciWeb photo.
The Stouts Fire 10 miles east of Canyonville, Oregon exploded to 6,500 acres within 12 hours after it started on Thursday (see maps below).
The fire burned actively late into the night toward the southeast before laying down in the early morning hours. Firefighters Thursday night focused their efforts on opening access roads and anchoring into the heel of the fire to begin constructing fireline.
Approximately 450 firefighters are on scene Friday. Fire activity is expected to increase throughout the day today. The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for most of western Oregon.
Thursday night, the Douglas County Sheriff’s Office issued a Level 3 (GO) evacuation notice for homes on Stouts Creek Road, Ferguson Lane, and Conley Lane. A Level 1 (READY) evacuation notice was issued for all homes on Upper Cow Creek, east of Snow Creek Road. A Red Cross Shelter opened at the Canyonville Elementary School, at 124 N. Main Street in Canyonville.
The Oregon Department of Forestry Incident Management Team 1 arrived at the Stouts Fire Friday morning.
The Stouts Fire is 32 miles northeast of Grants Pass and 24 miles southeast of Roseburg.
Stouts Fire, vicinity map, July 31, 2015. (The green line is the boundary for Crater Lake National Park.)Stouts Fire perimeter map at 1 a.m. PT, July 31, 2015.
As mountain pine beetles and other insects chew their way through Western forests, forest fires might not seem far behind. Lands covered by dead trees appear ready to burst into flame.
However, an analysis of wildfire extent in Oregon and Washington over the past 30 years shows very little difference in the likelihood of fires in forests with and without insect damage. Indeed, other factors – drought, storms, and fuel accumulation from years of fire suppression – may be more important than insects in determining if fire is more or less likely from year to year.
Scientists reached this conclusion by mapping the locations of insect outbreaks and wildfires throughout Oregon and Washington beginning in 1970. Researchers discovered that the chances of fire in forests with extensive swaths of dead timber are neither higher nor lower than in forests without damage from mountain pine beetles.
The same comparison done on forests damaged by another insect – western spruce budworm – yields a different result. The chances of wildfire actually appear to be slightly lower where the budworm has defoliated and killed trees in the past. While the mechanics of such an association are unconfirmed, it’s possible that budworm outbreaks could reduce the risk of wildfire by consuming needles in the forest canopy.
“Our analysis suggests that wildfire likelihood does not increase following most insect outbreaks,” said Garrett Meigs, lead author of a paper published this week in the open-access journal Ecosphere. Meigs is a former Ph.D. student in the Oregon State University College of Forestry and now a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Vermont.
Across more than 49 million forested acres in both states, insects and fires typically affect less than 2 percent of the land in a given year. More forestland is usually disturbed by insects than by fire.
“Most forests have plenty of fuel already,” Meigs said. “Green trees burn, not always as readily as dead ones, but they burn. The effects of insects are trumped by other factors such as drought, wind and fire management.” For example, the 2002 Biscuit Fire, the region’s largest at nearly 500,000 acres, occurred in an area with little tree damage from insects.
“Even if mountain pine beetle outbreaks do alter fuels in a way that increases flammability, the windows of opportunity are too small – and fire is too rare – for those effects to manifest at landscape and regional scales.”
“In the case of the budworm, our findings suggest that there may be a natural thinning effect of insect-caused defoliation and mortality, and it is possible that insects are doing some ‘fuel reduction’ work that managers may not need to replicate,” said Meigs. That possibility needs more research, he added.
These results are consistent with other studies that have investigated the likelihood of fire across the West. For example, a 2015 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by University of Colorado scientists found that despite extensive outbreaks of mountain pine beetles in the Rockies and the Cascades, fires in recent years were no more likely to occur in beetle-killed forests than in forests not affected by the insects.
Public perception may reflect our experience with starting campfires, said John Bailey, Oregon State professor of forestry and co-author of the Ecosphere paper.
“We choose dead and dry wood for kindling, not green branches,” Bailey pointed out. “A dead branch with lots of red needles is ideal. At the scale of a forest, however, the burning process is different. Wildland fire during severe weather conditions burns less discriminately across mountainsides.”
For managers of forestlands, these results suggest that emphasis needs to be put on fuel reduction, forests near communities and on preserving ecosystem services such as biodiversity and water quality. “Forests will continue to burn whether or not there was prior insect activity,” Meigs and his co-authors write, “and known drivers like fuel accumulation and vegetation stress likely will play a more important role in a warmer, potentially drier future.”
In addition to Bailey, Meigs’ co-authors included John L. Campbell, Harold S. J. Zald, David C. Shaw and Robert E. Kennedy, all of Oregon State. Funding support was provided by the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program and the USDA Forest Service.
