Tag: potential

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through May, 2014. If their prediction is correct there will be elevated wildfire potential in most of the mountainous areas in California and below normal potential in the southeast. Here is their summary:

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“Outlook Period – February, March, and April through May 2014

Executive Summary

The February, March, and April through May 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

February

• Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of the southern and central California mountains and foothills, including the San Francisco Bay area.
• Most of the southeastern U.S. will remain in below normal significant fire potential.

March

• Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of the California mountains and foothills.
• Below normal significant fire potential will continue from central Texas to the central Appalachians.

April through May

• Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of the California mountains and foothills.
• Below normal significant fire potential expected across the central and eastern Gulf states and the Tennessee Valley.”

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The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for January through April, 2014. If their prediction is correct there could be elevated wildfire potential in the San Francisco bay area in January and also in New Mexico and Texas in March and April. Here is their summary:

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“January

• Below normal significant wildland fire potential will for most of the southeastern U.S. except for far southern Florida and deep South Texas.
• Above normal significant wildland fire potential will affect the Bay Area of Northern California.

February

• The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential along the coastal regions from Virginia to southeastern Texas.
• There are no areas of above normal fire potential for February.

March through April

• Part of the Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential across eastern Texas and Oklahoma, the lower and mid-Mississippi, and the Tennessee Valley.
• Above normal significant wildland fire potential will develop across eastern New Mexico and West Texas in March and April.”

(end of NIFC’s outlook)

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On December 31 the Predictive Services group at the North Zone Coordination Center in Redding, California issued a “Seasonal Outlook” for northern California and Hawaii, which is valid for the months of February through April. In a nutshell, they forecast normal “weather and fuel/fire potential” during the period.

Another Predictive Services group that apparently prefers to remain anonymous has issued a “Monthly/Seasonal Outlook” for January through April, 2014 for California, but does not say when it was prepared or issued. It includes a strange map of a portion of California that is difficult to interpret since it does not have any cities, roads, or counties, but it does have some unidentified boundaries of some sort. While it is not clear, the document appears to be an outlook for the entire state. If so, then the northern California report above is a duplication, except that it also included Hawaii.

As we have stated before, technical reports and outlooks that are decision support tools need to indicate the date it was issued, and which office and personnel analyzed and compiled the information. The one for Northern California does, and even lists the names of the subject matter experts who worked on the report. Good job, Basil Newmerzhycky and John Snook.

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December, 2013 through March, 2014. If their prediction is correct there is nothing extraordinary ahead, except for reduced wildfire potential over much of the south. Here is their summary:

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The December 2013, January 2014 and February through March 2014, significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

December

• Below normal fire potential will continue from southern Texas to the Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians. Short-term increases in fire activity are possible along the lower Atlantic Coast.
• There are no areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential for December.

January

• The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential from East Texas to the Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians.
• There are short-term fire concerns for Florida.
• There are no areas of above normal fire potential for December.

February through March

• Below normal fire potential will develop from the central Gulf to the Mid-Atlantic states.
• No areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential are expected for February or March.