Wildfire Today

News and opinion about wildland fire

Wildfire Today

Tag: weather

Tuesday morning one-liners

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FSPRO analysis of the Hathaway Fire
FSPRO analysis of the Hathaway Fire in southern California, if there was no suppression, June 9, 2013

Data sharing leads to powerful tools for fighting fire.

The U.S. Forest Service and The Nature Conservancy have been conducting some prescribed fires near Orleans, California.

In California, the weather this month will determine if a new record will be set for the driest year on record.

A former trombone player continues to be in the news about his effort to improve the fire shelter.

The New York Times has an article about inmate fire crews.

After the county Sheriff has repeatedly publicly criticized how the Fire Chief handled the first two hour of the destructive Black Forest Fire in Colorado Springs, an independent investigator has been called in.

A man whose body was found during a brush fire in Arvin, California in August was murdered, before the suspect tried covering up the crime with a fire.

Protecting archaeological sites from wildfire and extreme weather using a wireless sensor network.

Vail Colorado maps and rates wildfire hazard for all structures.

Thanks go out to Dick, John, Bean, Ken, and Roy.

Wildfire potential through March, 2014

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags , 1 Comment on Wildfire potential through March, 2014

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December, 2013 through March, 2014. If their prediction is correct there is nothing extraordinary ahead, except for reduced wildfire potential over much of the south. Here is their summary:

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The December 2013, January 2014 and February through March 2014, significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.Wildfire outlook December

December

  • Below normal fire potential will continue from southern Texas to the Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians. Short-term increases in fire activity are possible along the lower Atlantic Coast.
  • There are no areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential for December.

Wildfire outlook January

January

  • The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential from East Texas to the Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians.
  • There are short-term fire concerns for Florida.
  • There are no areas of above normal fire potential for December.

February through March

Wildfire outlook February March

  • Below normal fire potential will develop from the central Gulf to the Mid-Atlantic states.
  • No areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential are expected for February or March.

Wildfire potential through February, 2014

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags ,

After skipping the October Wildland Fire Potential Outlook because of the government shutdown, today the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for November through February. If their prediction is correct there is nothing extraordinary ahead, except for above normal potential in southern California in November. Here is their summary:

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“The November and December 2013, and January through February, 2014, significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Wildfire potential November 2013

November

  • Significant wildland fire potential remains above normal for Central and South Coast of southern California but will return to normal by the end of the month.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue from central Texas to the Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians. Short-term increases in fire activity are possible along the lower Atlantic Coast.

Wildfire potential December 2013

December

  • The Southeast will continue to see below normal significant wildland fire potential from central Texas through the Appalachians, except possible short-term increases in Florida.
  • There are no areas of above normal fire potential for December.

Wildfire potential Jan-Feb 2014

January through February

  • Below normal fire potential will continue from eastern Texas to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
  • No areas of above normal significant wildland fire potential are expected for January or February.”

What happened to the fall fire season?

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags 4 Comments on What happened to the fall fire season?

The wildland fire season came to a screeching halt about mid-September or even earlier in some areas. Since the Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park, fire activity has been fairly subdued, and there has been no significant, extended appearance of the Santa Ana winds in southern California. The eastern and southern fire season that follows leaf fall and the first severe frost seems to be still waiting in the wings.

This has also been noticed by the National Interagency Fire Center, of course. In an anonymous article on their Facebook page, someone writing on their behalf explored some of the reasons. (Articles like that which lay out numerous facts and opinions should be attributed.)

What happened to the fall wildfires? What about the upcoming fire situation in the southern and eastern states? Here’s some info from Predictive Services –

In early September fuels made a rapid transition to a much more moist state across the Northwestern quarter of the U.S. This led to greatly reduced significant fire potential and changed the focus of fire concern to Southern and Central California. Drier than usual conditions continued across Southern and Central California into October, but weather events necessary to create significant events were rare.

The normal transition of fire season back to the southern and eastern U.S. in the fall associated with leaf drop also did not occur as would be expected. Wetter than normal conditions continued and leaf drop is occurring on top of wet ground and as leaves are falling they are being layered with moisture preventing a significant fall fire season from developing.

Wildfire potential, September through December, 2013

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags ,

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September through December, 2013. If their prediction is correct the world of wildland fire will be slower than normal everywhere in the United States except for California. Here is a summary:

wildfire Outlook Sept 2013

September

  • Significant fire potential remains above normal for a large portion California due to long term drought and high fire danger indices. This will be exacerbated by the possibility of off-shore flow events developing.
  • The remainder of the western U.S. will return to normal September conditions and begin to transition into regular fall fire activity levels.
  • In the western Great Lakes states conditions will increase to normal and some fall fire activity should be expected
  • The southeast will continue to see periodic moisture and a below normal fall fire season, except possible short term increases across the southern plains.

wildfire Outlook Oct 2013
October

  • Most of California will return to normal during October as fall develops in earnest. This will be late month for portions of northern California
  • Southwestern California will continue to see above normal significant fire potential through the month and will also have a continued threat of off-shore flow events.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across portions of the eastern U.S.

Widfire Outlook Nov-Dec 2013
November and December

  • The remainder of California will return to normal out of season significant fire potential during this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across portions of the eastern U.S

Researchers studying the effects of wildfire smoke on cloud formation

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags ,

Researchers from the Department of Energy’s Brookhaven National Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are flying over fires this summer in the Pacific Northwest and Tennessee to study how particles called aerosols given off by wildfires and agricultural burns evolve over time. The Biomass Burning Observation Project will gather data to help researchers flesh out one of the least understood areas of climate, the role of aerosols in cloud formation and climate.

Recently the researchers have sampled smoke generated by the Milemarker 28 and Colockum Tarps Fires in Washington, and the Elk and Pony Complexes in Idaho.