The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through May, 2013. If the predictions are accurate wildfire activity in February and March should be normal or below normal, except for portions of Colorado, Kansas, Hawaii, and Florida.
More details from the NIFC report:
February
Precipitation deficits and long term extreme drought contribute to above normal significant wildland fire potential in the central Plains.
Periodic precipitation across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, central Gulf States and the mid-Atlantic will keep below normal significant wildland fire potential in much of the east.
Long term drought in Hawaii will keep above normal significant wildland fire potential on the Big Island.
March
The seasonal increase in fire across Florida will be amplified to above normal significant wildland fire potential by ongoing very dry conditions.
Late winter storm track will continue across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, keeping significant wildland fire potential below normal.
Drought continues in Hawaii.
April and May
Spring pre-greenup potential and long term drought keep parts of the Southeast, Oklahoma and Arkansas in above normal significant wildland fire potential.
Good winter precipitation and lingering spring precipitation keep the southern Appalachians and parts of mid-Atlantic below normal significant wildland fire potential.
The National Weather Service issued a Red Flag Warning Wednesday afternoon for the front range of Colorado from the Wyoming border south almost to Colorado Springs. It will be in effect until 5 p.m. MT January 24. Conveniently for the weather forecasters, the extreme fire weather stops EXACTLY at the Wyoming/Colorado state line.
Here is the text from the announcement:
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LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET, JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET, GILPIN, CLEAR CREEK, NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY.
* AFFECTED AREA…FIRE WEATHER ZONES 215 AND 216.
* TIMING…TONIGHT AND THURSDAY…WITH THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
* WINDS…WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 MPH THIS EVENING INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY…SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONLY RECOVERING TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES THEN DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS…EXISTING WILDFIRES OR NEW FIRE STARTS MAY EXPERIENCE RAPID FIRE GROWTH DUE TO THE VERY DRY FUELS…LOW HUMIDITIES…AND GUSTY WINDS. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SOUTHERN EXPOSURES AND AREAS WITH NO SNOW COVER.
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The map above was current as of 8:10 p.m. MT on Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the dozens of National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
If you are one of the 18 remaining climate change deniers, you should stop reading now, because what follows will make you uncomfortable.
Northern Hemisphere:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is reporting that last year was the hottest on record for the contiguous United States, shattering CRUSHING by a wide margin the previous record set in 1998. The average temperature of 55.3 degrees Fahrenheit was 1 degree above the previous record and 3.2 degrees higher than the average for the 20th century. That is a huge difference.
Last year’s record temperature is “clearly symptomatic of a changing climate,” said Thomas R. Karl, who directs NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. Americans can now see the sustained warmth over the course of their own lifetimes — “something we haven’t seen before.” He added, “That doesn’t mean every season and every year is going to be breaking all-time records, but you’re going to see this with increasing frequency.”
Southern Hemisphere:
Extremely high record-breaking temperatures and “catastrophic” fire danger ratings in Australia are not only contributing to the rapid spread of numerous bush fires, but they may cause some electronic gadgets to stop working. According to Wired, Apple advises that an iPhone should not be used when temperatures reach 95F (35C). In Sydney yesterday the high was 108F (42C).
The extreme weather is also causing problems for meteorologists when they attempt to display the highest ever recorded temperatures on their standard maps.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology had to add new colors to its weather map. Now, those unfortunate parts of Australia that achieve temperatures above 122ºF (50ºC) — temperatures that were, until recently, literally off the scale — will be marked in deep purple and terrifying hot pink. It is an interesting moment in data visualization history when climate scientists find themselves in the position of revising the upper bounds of temperatures they ever expected to depict.
It is possible that our electronics and our infrastructure were designed for a climate that we no longer have. When the streets and buildings of lower Manhattan were built, no one expected that they would be flooded by a hurricane. Apple did not design the iPhone for the recent weather in Australia.
New South Wales fire danger predicted for January 8, 2013
As we write this at about 11 a.m. Mountain Time in the United States, the sun will be rising in an hour Tuesday morning in New South Wales, Australia. Residents there will experience a day that could have the most extreme fire danger ever recorded. Predictions in the state for Tuesday range from Very High to Catastrophic.
Australia’s ABC News reports that Rural Fire Service (RFS) Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said:
Catastrophic fire danger ratings are the worst you can get. We are talking about the most extreme fire behaviour – destruction is likely. We will see ember showers likely to be thrown 10 kilometres, if not 20 kilometres ahead, under the extraordinary conditions being forecast. We are looking at widespread areas of New South Wales likely to experience very high, severe, and even catastrophic conditions.
We’ve got 91 different fires … there’s a lot of work with firefighters on the ground at the moment – more than 650 firefighters working across those fire grounds, looking to bring those fires under control as much as possible.
About 20 of those 91 fires are not under control.
Here is the text of an emergency alert telephone message, a SMS, that was sent to the Illawarra, Shoalhaven, and Southern Ranges regions Monday night ahead of a 43C (109F) temperature forecast, recommending people escape while they can.
If you have received this message you are in an area that is forecast to have Catastrophic Fire Danger on Tuesday 8 January 2013.
For your survival, leaving early is the safest option. Leaving a bush fire prone area tonight or early tomorrow morning is recommended.
Make a decision about when you will leave, where you will go and how you will get there. Homes are not designed to withstand fires in catastrophic conditions.
Below is a screen capture from a cell phone of another similar message sent out by the RFS on Monday, January 7:
Matt_1110 posted to Instagram this screen capture from his cell phone with a slightly different message, also from the RFS.
In my experience, this is unprecedented, at least in the United States, recommending that residents evacuate based on predicted fire danger — an example of proactive, forward-leaning leadership. If large, damaging fires erupt, the leaders will be praised as heroes. If not, there may be criticism.
The Premier, Barry O’Farrel, is also getting involved, and was quoted at ABC News as saying:
[It] is not going to be just another ordinary day. [It could] be perhaps the worst fire danger day this state has ever faced. If Sydney reaches 43C [109F] [Tuesday], it will only be the third time in the history of record keeping that the temperature in Sydney has been that high.
Last month we wrote an article at Fire Aviation which detailed the aviation resources that were going to be available in Victoria this 2012-2013 fire season down under. Last year they leased two CV-580 air tankers from Conair, but this year it appears there are no large air tankers in Victoria. UPDATE: The Australian states and territories each operate or contract for their own firefighting aircraft, but they are shared across lines as needed. This fire season among all the states there are no large air tankers, but they have 14 small single engine air tankers and 35 helicopters which are used for various purposes.
The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for January through April, 2013. If the predictions are accurate, wildfire activity should be normal or below normal, except for Hawaii in January.
Significant Fire Potential
For January, above normal significant fire potential is expected on the western sides of the larger islands of Hawaii. By February through March, no areas of above normal significant potential are forecast in the United States.
Below normal significant fire potential is expected across much of the southeastern U.S. and the southern Ohio Valley for January and February, decreasing to an area from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Appalachian Mountains by April.
Elsewhere, expect near normal significant fire potential to exist. In many areas of the western U.S., this indicates winter conditions that are generally considered out of fire season.
