The forecast for wildland fire potential issued August 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and the mountainous areas of California will have above normal fire potential in August and September. Even into October much of the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and coastal mountains of Southern California will still be above normal.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of the CONUS, especially the West, into fall. The northern Intermountain West is likely to have drier than normal conditions in August, expanding to include most of the West during fall. Near normal precipitation is likely with the monsoon in August, which should continue to alleviate drought. However, drought is likely to expand and intensify across much of the West into fall.
“Much of Southern Area and areas south of the Ohio River are likely to have below normal significant fire potential through September, but much of the Southeast U.S. is forecast to have above normal fire potential in October and November. Normal significant fire potential is forecast for Alaska along with most of Eastern Area.
“Above normal significant fire potential is likely to remain in portions of northern Minnesota into August. Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to continue through September for much of the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and northern portions of the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas. Most of these areas will return to normal fire potential in October and November. Most mountains and foothills in California are forecast to have above normal potential through September with areas prone to offshore winds likely to retain above normal potential into October and November in southern California. Leeside locations in Hawaii are likely to have above normal significant fire potential into October.”
Satellite photo showing heat and smoke from wildfires in Northwest California at 2:56 a.m. PDT August 2, 2021.
Lightning-caused fires, many of which started July 29, are starting to cover large portions of Northwest California with smoke. Monday afternoon the GOES 17 satellite in geosynchronous orbit 22,300 miles above the Earth could easily detect the heat from four large fires in the extreme northwest corner of the state, as well as their extensive smoke plumes.
The fact that the River Complex of fires on the Klamath National Forest is comprised of 19 fires at last count, can give you an idea what might be out there on that forest as well as the nearby Six Rivers and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. Monday afternoon the Siskiyou County Sheriff’s Office ordered evacuations for Taylor Creek Road and surrounding areas. Some of the larger fires in the complex include, Haypress, 600 acres; Summer, 75 acres; Cronan, 165 acres; and Packers, 50 acres.
Map showing heat detected on wildfires in Northwest California by satellites at 12:55 a.m. PDT August 2, 2021.
Two large fires are already well established on the Shasta-T, the McFarland and Monument Fires. Today, Monday, two or three other fires further north show up on the satellite photo.
I picked a random location for a weather forecast, 18 miles ESE of Orleans, CA and found that the conditions through Sunday August 8 will be conducive to continued fire spread with the relative humidity in the teens or low twenties, moderate wind speeds, and no chance of precipitation.
Energy Release Component Hayfork, California, Aug. 1, 2021.
Since the middle of May the Energy Release Component at Hayfork has been hovering above or below the highest levels ever recorded at that site. The ERC is an index related to how hot a fire could burn. Extremely dry vegetation is one of the factors that can lead to high ERC levels.
With over 22,000 personnel already tied up on 72 un-contained wildfires in the country it may not be easy to staff many additional large fires.
The US Forest Service has already exhausted the list of large air tankers that are available on USFS call when needed contracts — it turned out to only be five, instead of the 16 or more the Forest Service described earlier this year. The only ones left are three military C-130’s with slip-in Modular Airborne FireFighting Systems, which for some reason have not been activated.
Monument Fire and McFarland Fire are two of the largest
1:51 p.m. PDT August 2, 2021
Map of the McFarland Fire. The white line was the perimeter at 12:45 a.m. PDT Aug 2, 2021. The yellow line was the perimeter approximately 24 hours earlier. (scroll down to see a map with a wider view)
The McFarland Fire South of Wildwood, California burned intensely Sunday afternoon, spreading two miles to the west and a mile south. A mapping flight at 12:45 a.m. Monday showed it had consumed about 5,000 additional acres in the previous 24 hours to bring the total to approximately 7,400 acres. It moved a little closer to Highway 36 and during the flight was about three-quarters of a mile south of the highway.
The Shasta-Trinity National Forest reported on their Facebook page Monday at noon that overnight “the fire spotted three miles to the west around Hell To Find Lake.” We confirmed with FS, “A spot fire occurred three miles west of the main fire?” and they said yes.
On Monday the fire became established in the upper headwaters of Beegum Canyon, with tree torching, spotting and rollout in the steep terrain. Fixed wing air tankers made retardant drops to slow fire spread and allow ground resources the opportunity to construct containment hand lines in some areas along the fire perimeter.
McFarland Fire. Looking south from the Hayfork2 camera at 9:47 a.m. PDT Aug 2, 2021.
The McFarland Fire is about a mile north of a large fire from 2020, the Hopkins Fire which merged with several other fires to become the Elkhorn Fire. It is a few miles south of the 2008 Telephone Fire and the 2015 Sheill Fire. Two other fires from 2008 are several miles to the east, the Gulch and Noble Fires.
A Type 2 Incident Management Team was expected assume command Sunday night.
Map of the Monument Fire. The white line was the perimeter at 12:10 a.m. PDT Aug. 2, 2021. The yellow line was the perimeter approximately 24 hours earlier. (scroll down to see a map with a wider view)
The Monument Fire two miles west of Big Bar, California was very active Sunday afternoon spreading about a mile to the north, coming close to Highway 299, but it slowed overnight in calmer winds. A mapping flight at 12:10 a.m. Monday determined it had burned 3,114 acres, an increase of about 2,000 acres in approximately 24 hours.
Crews are focusing on building direct containment lines and assessing and preparing structures in Del Loma, Big Bar, and Pattison Ranch.
Evacuation warnings are in effect for these communities. More information can be found at the Trinity County Sheriff’s Office Facebook page.
Highway 299 has been closed intermittently due to active fire behavior and rolling material.
A Type 1 National Incident Management Organization (NIMO) Incident Management Team has been ordered for the incident.
So far, the fire is burning entirely in the footprint of the 2008 Cedar Fire, part of the Iron Complex of fires, and firefighters are opening some of the dozer lines used 13 years ago. Nine firefighters and pilots were killed when a Sikorsky S-61N helicopter crashed while working on the Iron 44 Fire that was part of that complex.
Below is a map showing the fires that have occurred in the area of these two fires, McFarland and Monument, since 2000.
Monument & McFarland Fires, history of fires in the area since 2000. NIFC.
7:33 p.m. PDT August 1, 2021
Map of the Monument & McFarland Fires at approximately 3 a.m. PDT Aug 1, 2021.
Lightning on July 29 started more than a half-dozen fires in Northern California’s Trinity County. As of Sunday afternoon two have burned more than 1,000 acres each and prompted evacuations. According to satellite photos and heat data from satellites Sunday afternoon both were very active. Very large smoke plumes were photographed moving north-northwest toward southwest Oregon,
Sunday morning the McFarland Fire, discovered July 31, was south of Cold Creek Road (Highway 36) a mile or two south of Wildwood, California. It is 7 air miles west of Platina, 15 miles southeast of Hayfork, and 38 miles southwest of Redding. At about 6 p.m. the Trinity County Sheriff’s office issued an evacuation order “for the town of Wildwood, CA. Evacuation areas are SR 36 @ Wildwood Road, north on Wildwood Road for 10 miles.”
At 9 a.m. Sunday the Shasta-Trinity National Forest said the McFarland Fire had burned 2,100 acres, but judging from the satellite imagery at 6 p.m. local time it likely has grown substantially since then. A Type 2 Incident Management Team will assume command Sunday night.
Satellite photo of smoke from the Monument & McFarland Fires at 6:31 p.m. PDT Aug 1, 2021. NASA.
The Monument Fire is about 28 air miles northwest of the McFarland Fire. A mapping flight very early Sunday morning showed it was about a half mile south of Highway 299, which is now closed, and about two miles west of Big Bar. The Forest service said the fire’s movement Saturday was primarily to the east. By 2 p.m. Sunday satellite data indicated it had spread north closer to the highway.
Sunday morning the Shasta-Trinity National Forest said the Monument Fire had burned 1,000 acres, but like the McFarland Fire, it has probably also grown substantially since then.
The Trinity County Sheriff’s Office issued evacuation warnings for structures on both sides of the Trinity River near Del Loma along Highway 299 at approximately 10 p.m. Saturday night. A Type 1 National Incident Management Organization (NIMO) Incident Management Team has been ordered for the incident.
McFarland Fire, looking south from the Hayfork2 camera at 7:29 p.m. Aug 1, 2021
This video of a lightning-struck tree burning is mesmerizing. Michael Bogan of the University of Arizona filmed it July 31 in Southern California near Big Bear Lake. The US Forest Service responded, Mr. Bogan said, and suppressed the fire.
Still image from the Jack Jones “Unskilled Labor” documentary
When U.S. Rep. Tom McClintock of California called wildland firefighters “unskilled labor”earlier this month it provoked strong responses from the highly trained, professional, tactical athletes who put their bodies on the fireline to protect our citizens and forests.
One of those reacting was Jack Jones who was motivated by the criticism to put together the video he shot last year while serving as a highly skilled firefighter on the Idaho-based Sawtooth Hotshots. The resulting 26-minute documentary is titled, “Unskilled Labor” A Season with the Hotshots.
Still image from the Jack Jones “Unskilled Labor” documentary
The video is the best I have seen that captures what it is like to work with 20 other highly skilled professional firefighters over the course of a fire season — digging fireline, mopping up, firing out, and hiking impossibly steep terrain while carrying heavy loads. Mr. Jones narrates as we see excellent photography of scenes that most people can’t even imagine. It brought me back to the five seasons I spent on Southern California hotshot crews.
Mr. Jones addresses thoroughly the ridiculous comment by Representative McClintock about “unskilled labor”.
The viewer may be left with the conclusion that if the trained and experienced firefighters on Hotshot crews were not skilled, instead of returning home after a fire assignment they could be in a cemetery.
For the last couple of days wildfires in Southern British Columbia have been producing large quantities of smoke which has been drifting into Alberta, North-central US, the American Midwest, and points further east. The forecast for Saturday night indicates this trend is continuing.
Clouds have made it difficult for satellites to photograph smoke coming from the Bootleg Fire in Oregon and the Dixie Fire in California.
Satellite photo showing smoke from fires in BC and Montana at 7:40 p.m. MDT July 30, 2021.
