The fire forecast through January has been released
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued October 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts higher than average wildfire potential in October for portions of Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and most of California.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“La Niña and current fuel conditions are the main drivers of significant fire potential through fall and into winter. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest through October with drying expected to increase across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast. Significant fire potential remains above normal for California due to the number of active large fires, near record dry fuels, and offshore wind events.
“Above normal significant fire potential is expected across much of California, Arizona, eastern Nevada, Utah, Colorado Rockies, and southern Wyoming in October. However, fire activity and potential will likely diminish across the West, except for portions of California, and remain normal over the Eastern and Southern Areas through November. Elevated periods of fire activity are likely in portions of Oklahoma and Texas and possibly in other locations in the Southern Area during fall into winter.”
90-day temperature and precipitation outlook, October – December, 2020.Drought Monitor, prepared September 22, 2020Keetch-Byram Drought Index, prepared Sept. 30, 2020
Map of the Zogg Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 9:30 p.m. PDT Sept. 30, 2020. The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours before.
Four people have died and 74 residences plus 73 other structures have been destroyed in the Zogg Fire southwest of Redding, California. The fourth fatality was announced by fire officials Wednesday. A person was found badly burned and was pronounced dead after being transported to a hospital.
CAL FIRE said Thursday morning the blaze has burned 55,303 acres.
The fire was not as active Wednesday has it had been in recent days. Most of the spread was on the northwest and southeast sides. Crews completed firing operations along critical sections of the fireline. Live fuel moistures in the area are at a very low critical level, about 60 percent, and the 1000-hour time lag dead fuel moistures are 7 percent. The lower the fuel moisture, the faster a fire spreads. Kiln-dried lumber is usually at about 12 percent.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Zogg Fire, including the most recent, click here.
The weather forecast for the Zogg Fire Thursday calls for 100 degrees, 6 to 9 mph winds out of the northwest in the morning switching to northeast in the afternoon, with 7 percent relative humidity.
The dry fuels with the hot and dry forecast has led to a fire behavior forecast if there is a slopover or spot fire, for rates of spread of around 1 mph and a spotting distance of up to half a mile.
Resources assigned include 133 fire engines, 52 water tenders, 13 helicopters, 31 hand crews, and 37 dozers for a total of 1,538 personnel.
The fire has burned well over 48,000 acres near the Napa Valley of northern California
Updated October 1, 2020 | 10:26 a.m. PDT
Map of the southern portion of the Glass Fire at 10:15 p.m. PDT Sept. 30, 2020. Two very large and destructive fires from 2017 are seen with green perimeters, the Tubbs and Nuns Fires.
The Glass Fire near California’s Napa Valley was very active again Wednesday, adding about 8,000 acres to bring the size up to 56,781 acres according to CAL FIRE Thursday morning. The agency reported that 143 residences and 105 other structures have been destroyed since the blaze started September 27.
The growth Wednesday was primarily in four areas:
The north end, north of Calistoga where it has burned across a narrow finger of the Robert Louis Stevenson State Park. In this area it has come close to burning into the LNU Complex which was last active several weeks ago.
The west side, one to four miles south of Calistoga and Highway 29. South of the highway the fire is a couple of miles away from the 2017 Tubbs Fire. Firefighters have stopped it along a portion of that two-year-old fire scar.
West of Highway 29 and one to two miles northwest of Barro. This could be considered a large unburned island before Wednesday, but it is burning very actively today, Thursday. Multiple structures have been destroyed and more are threatened near Spring mountain Road.
The southeast side, three to five miles west of Rutherford. It has already burned into the 2017 Nuns Fire, but firefighters have not yet had success in stopping it in this two-year-old fire scar.
Map of the Glass Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 10:15 p.m. PDT Sept. 30, 2020. The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours earlier.
The area is under a Red Flag Warning through Friday. Gusty north to northwest winds, very low humidity, and extremely dry fuels have produced critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Northwest winds will increase Thursday night into Friday morning with gusts of 25 to 30 mph with little or no humidity recovery overnight. Breezy northerly winds will continue through the Friday burn period with continued hot temperatures. The relative humidity Thursday will be generally in the teens, with a high temperature at Santa Rosa of 96 degrees.
September 30, 2020 | 4:23 p.m. PDT
3-D map of the Glass Fire at 8:59 p.m. PDT Sept. 29, 2020.
CAL FIRE revealed September 29 that two firefighters deployed fire shelters at the Glass Fire September 27, 2020. The individuals were not injured, but several transport support vehicles were damaged.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Glass Fire, including the most recent, click here.
The weather Thursday and Friday could increase activity on the blaze. Strong winds and a Red Flag Warning are predicted for 1 p.m. Thursday through 6 p.m. Friday for 10-20 mph northwest winds with 25-30 mph gusts in the higher elevations.
Glass Fire burns into Robert Louis Stevenson State Park, the Palisades area of Napa County. CAL FIRE, Sept. 30, 2020.
The north end of the fire north of Calistoga has moved into much more rugged terrain — the southeast side of Robert Louis Stevenson State Park. The last time that area burned was 56 years ago during the C. Hanly Fire of 1964. In 2017 the Tubbs Fire, west of the Glass Fire, burned exceedingly well in the footprint of that 55,000-acre fire. Most of the rest of the Glass fire is burning in areas with no recorded history of fires in the last 70 years.
At last count 80 residences and 33 other structures have been destroyed, with over 21,000 still threatened.
CAL FIRE reports the Glass Fire has burned 48,440 acres near Santa Rosa and Calistoga, California. Data from a Tuesday night mapping flight could bump that figure up another 5,000 acres.
Resources assigned to the fire include 25 hand crews, 261 fire engines, and 16 helicopters for a total of 2,099 personnel.
Map of the Glass Fire. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 3:30 a.m. PDT Sept. 30, 2020. The red line was the perimeter mapped by an aircraft at 8:59 p.m. PDT September 29, 2020. To the north is the LNU Lightning Complex from a few weeks ago.A restored 1942 fire engine knocks down hot spots on the Glass Fire. Normally seen at the Eagle Field museum at Dos Palos, southeast of San Francisco, it was transported to the Napa Valley to help protect a museum member’s home near St Helena. Photo by Jose Carlos Fajardo (@jcfphotog) courtesy of Jerry Sack, Miramar MCAS Fire.
#GlassFire in Deer Park, Napa Valley CA, fire damage on Mund Rd, the Mund Trailer Park is devastated with complete loss. Mutual aid fire crew from Pasadena CA monitoring 1/ pic.twitter.com/GgdtHggTjI
CAL FIRE reports that two firefighters deployed fire shelters at the Glass Fire September 27, 2020. The individuals were not injured, but several transport support vehicles were damaged.
The fire has burned over 50,000 acres in California’s North Bay near Santa Rosa and Calistoga.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Glass Fire, including the most recent, click here.
Map of the Zogg Fire. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 3 a.m. PDT Sept. 29, 2020. The red line was mapped by a fixed wing aircraft at 1:30 a.m. PDT Sept. 29, 2020.
CAL FIRE reports that the Zogg Fire southwest of Redding, California has killed three people and destroyed 146 structures.
The fire has burned at least 40,317 acres.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Zogg Fire, including the most recent, click here.
Forecast for wildfire smoke at 8 p.m. PDT September 28, 2020.
Above is the forecast for wildfire smoke at 8 p.m. PDT September 28, 2020. Most of the smoke from the California fires is being transported out over the Pacific. Some of the smoke from the Wyoming and Colorado fires has blown south into New Mexico and Arizona.
