Map of the Tick Fire at 9 p.m. PDT October 24, 2019 before it burned across the 14 freeway. LA County FD.
UPDATED at 9:23 a.m. PDT Oct. 25, 2019
The Los Angeles County Fire Department reported at 7 a.m. PDT Oct. 25 that the Tick Fire at Santa Clarita had burned approximately 4,300 acres including the portion that spread to the south across the 14 freeway overnight, forcing the closure of the road.
At 9:20 a.m. Friday the fire activity had decreased significantly and very little additional spreading was occurring.
About 574 firefighting personnel are assigned to the fire from all over the state. Damage assessment teams have started documenting the structures that have been destroyed or damaged.
Approximately 40,000 residents are under evacuation orders. Officials are working to identify areas that can be repopulated safely.
6:33 a.m. PDT October 25, 2019
The Tick Fire near Santa Clarita jumped across the 14 freeway at about 2:30 Friday morning, requiring it to be closed in both directions between Golden Valley and Escondido Canyon. Additional evacuations have been ordered. The map above shows the perimeter at 9 p.m. October 24 before it crossed the freeway.
At 9 p.m. on Thursday the Tick Fire had burned 3,739 acres, but the growth of the fire to the south and across the freeway during the night may have added another 500 to 1,000 acres.
The Santa Ana winds are expected to continue Friday, gusting across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties at 40 to 65 mph. Wind speeds of 33 mph gusting to 54 were recorded at the Warm Springs weather station northeast of Castaic overnight.
The Tick, Old, and Verde fires were being pushed by strong winds
Map shows the APPROXIMATE LOCATIONS of the Tick, Verde, and Old Fires north of Los Angeles. This map should not be used for planning or evacuation purposes. Click to enlarge.
6:16 p.m. PDT October 24, 2019
At least three wildfires were actively spreading on the north side of Los Angeles in Santa Clarita’s Canyon Country Thursday afternoon. At 5:35 the Los Angeles County Fire Department said the largest of the three, the Tick Fire, had burned 3,000 acres. (see map above) By 5:45 p.m. the fires were not spreading as quickly as they were three hours before.
TV news helicopters have shown images of burning homes. Wind-blown embers have started spot fires long distances ahead of the main fire. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for residents in some locations both north and south of the 14 freeway.
#TickFire (LA County) – Huge column coming off this fire now w/ reports of fire already in the Brandywine Canyon Rd area near Sierra Hwy per 911 callers. pic.twitter.com/VJFF3fe2s2
Early Thursday afternoon the Saugus weather station recorded winds out of the north-northeast of 18 to 26 mph gusting at 32 to 48. The temperature was 83 degrees with 4 percent humidity. By 5:45 p.m. the wind had slowed to 14 mph gusting to 28, still out of the north-northeast. The humidity was 4 percent.
Two other blazes, the Old and Verde Fires, are also being suppressed in the Castaic area west of Interstate 5. The Verde Fire was stopped after it burned one acre and four travel trailers. The Old Fire required the northbound lanes of Interstate 8 to be shut down. Its name was changed to Tick Branch 10.
**UPDATE** BRUSH FIRE #TickBranch10 | FS149 | Northbound 5 at Lake Hughes Rd #Castaic | @CHPsouthern reporting shutdown of Northbound 5 at Lake Hughes. Southbound 5 remains open. #LACoFD
Forecast for near surface smoke at 6 p.m. PDT October 24, 2019. NOAA.
Thursday morning there were very few wildfires producing large quantities of smoke, however the Kincade Fire 63 miles north of San Francisco has the potential to become an air quality problem for residents in northern California especially on Friday.
There is a surprising amount of smoke in the Northwest, especially in Idaho, Oregon, and western Montana presumably created by extensive prescribed burning.
The map shows heat from fires detected in the Northwest United States October 24, 2019.
Heads Up, Bay Area! Although the #KincadeFire isn’t causing smoke issues over the Bay Area today, shifting winds tomorrow will likely cause the smoke to be directly over much of the region. Impacts to SFO may begin as early as 11am Friday. pic.twitter.com/3tlCIXIC5r
New mapping shows the fire has burned 19,529 acres
UPDATED at 5:56 p.m. PDT October 25, 2019
The Kincade Fire was active Friday afternoon, and became more so after 3 p.m., sending up a very large column of smoke.
There are reports that during that period of enhanced activity Friday afternoon several firefighters and civilians took refuge in fire shelters that were deployed. Radio conversations indicated that it took place on Pine Flat Road on the east side of the fire. A number of ground and air ambulances were dispatched to the scene but apparently there were no injuries. This is all preliminary information and could change. It is not confirmed by CAL FIRE.
Satellite photo of smoke from the Kincade Fire at 4:40 p.m. PDT Oct. 25.
UPDATED at 11:26 a.m. PDT October 25, 2019
3-D map of the Kincade Fire showing the perimeter at 11:58 p.m. October 24, 2019. The orange shaded areas indicate intense heat. Looking north. Click to enlarge.
CAL FIRE reports that the Kincade Fire east of Geyserville in northern California has blackened 21,900 acres and destroyed 49 structures. About 735 structures are still threatened.
Evacuations have been ordered for about 2,000 people, including the entire town of Geyserville. All roads east of Highway 101 in the Geyserville area are closed.
From ABC7:
A CAL FIRE incident commander says the fire started near the Geysers Geothermal Plant, but they don’t know if the plant had anything to do with it. Firefighters also said they do not know if the PG&E power shutoff was in effect in the area at the time the blaze started.
According to a report filled by PG&E, they became aware of “Transmission level” outages on their Geysers line. On site CAL FIRE personnel brought to PG&E’s crew’s attention what appeared to be a broken jumper on the same tower.
Map of the Kincade Fire showing the perimeter at 11:58 p.m. October 24, 2019. The orange shaded areas indicate intense heat.
At least three large air tankers, a P2, BAe-146, and an MD87, are working the #KincadeFire in NoCal, plus at least one S-2 and multiple helicopters. Here’s a photo by an Alert Wildfire cam, taken at 10:44 a.m. today. pic.twitter.com/TZwpZOApUE
Resources assigned to the fire include 77 fire engines, 10 water tenders, 12 helicopters, 38 hand crews, and 32 dozers for a total of 1,283 personnel.
UPDATED at 11:14 a.m. PDT October 24, 2019
Map showing heat on the Kincade Fire detected by a satellite at 3:42 a.m. PDT Oct. 24, 2019. Click to enlarge.
Weather forecasters expect the strong north-northeast winds pushing the Kincade Fire to slowly decrease by midday and through the afternoon. Afternoon highs will be near record levels in the low 90s. Humidity values will remain critically low in the single digits even with light offshore winds later this afternoon. North winds at 5 to 10 mph will continue Thursday night and Friday.
A stronger offshore wind event will arrive Saturday night into Sunday with damaging winds and critical fire weather conditions.
9:18 a.m. PDT October 24, 2019
The Kincade Fire, first reported at 9:27 Wednesday night northeast of Geyserville, California has forced the evacuation of the entire town with a population of about 862 people. At 4 a.m. Thursday CAL FIRE estimated the fire had burned about 10,000 acres.
The fire is 63 miles north of San Francisco.
The rapidly spreading fire is being pushed by strong north-northeast winds with sustained speeds of 45 to 60 mph with a maximum gust of 76 mph at the Healdsburg Hills North weather station. Overnight the humidity has been in the low teens with temperatures around 70.
Some structures have burned but the number is unknown. The Press Democrat reported that spot fires were starting far ahead of the main fire:
Monte Rio Fire Chief Steve Baxman said an ember was thrown about a mile from the fire front onto a home off Red Winery Road that was destroyed.
The Sonoma County Sheriff sent an alert at 6:23 a.m. Thursday announcing the immediate evacuation of Geyserville, saying the Kincade Fire had crossed Highway 128 near Moody Lane and was heading west. Earlier homes were evacuated in several areas east of Geyserville. Evacuation centers were established at Healdsburg Community Center and Windsor High School.
There is a report that the fire started near one of the geothermal power plants.
The photos below were taken by the Alert Wildfire network at around 7:54 a.m. PDT October 24.
Pepperwood East cam.St. Helena cam.Geyser Peak cam.
The fire burned over 96,000 acres and destroyed 1,600 structures in southern California in November, 2018
Above: Progression map of the Woolsey Fire, November 17, 2018. Perimeters produced by the Incident Management Team. Adapted by Wildfire Today.
A draft After Action Review was released by Los Angeles County that details some of the issues that affected the management and suppression of the Woolsey Fire that destroyed 1,600 structures and burned nearly 97,000 acres.
When fire started at about 2 p.m. on November 8, 2018 the humidity was five percent and the wind was gusting out of the north and northeast at 40 to 50 mph. At 5:15 the next morning, Friday November 9, it jumped the 12-lane 101 freeway and before noon it ran for another six miles to the Pacific Ocean, a distance of about 15 miles from the point where it started 22 hours before.
Thursday November 8 was a busy day in California. Just before midnight the night before there was a mass shooting incident leaving 12 dead at a bar in Thousand Oaks, just west of where the fire was hours later. The Camp Fire started early Thursday morning wiping out much of Paradise in northern California before noon. Then the Hill Fire started at about 1 p.m. south of Thousand Oaks about 13 miles southwest of where the Woolsey Fire started an hour later. The Hill Fire eventually burned over 4,500 acres and required the evacuation of 17,000 residents. While firefighters were still initially responding to the Hill Fire the Woolsey Fire ignited at about 2 p.m. Strike teams of engines and crews were already en route to northern California, so right away there was competition for firefighting resources with three major fires burning simultaneously in the state.
The Woolsey Fire started in Ventura County but spread into Los Angeles County. Very large portions of the blaze were in both counties, testing the capabilities of LA City, LA County, and the Ventura County Fire Department. The report states that even though the three organizations “regularly plan for and practice their response to a large fire in the region, they could not have planned for a complete exhaustion of California’s limited firefighting resources brought on by a regional wildfire weather threat in conjunction with the Camp Fire, a mass casualty shooting in Ventura County, and the Ventura County Hill Fire, which began just before the Woolsey Fire started.”
With large numbers of firefighting resources committed to the three major fires, and with the dry, windy weather continuing, many agencies had to think hard about continuing to send more and more firefighters to the Hill and Woolsey Fires in case more incidents broke out. Approximately half the resource orders for the Woolsey Fire were UTF, Unable to Fill.
The fire presented a number of complexities, according to the report:
The location and topography, which presented severe challenges for initial attack.
The early November sunset, which grounded non-night-flying aircraft.
Early and mid-evening wind shifts when the fire was still outside heavily populated areas.
The fire’s crossing of the 12-lane Highway 101 before dawn on Friday.
The defense of both sides of the populated areas along Highway 101 consumed fire attack resources just as the fire began the run to Malibu.
Very limited initial resources in Malibu Friday morning due to fire ferocity and fire- or wind-caused road damage blocking Santa Monica Mountain and Malibu roads, including evacuation routes.
In Los Angeles County 1,075 homes and 46 commercial structures were destroyed. Approximately 57,000 structures were saved.
The After Action Review was written by a consulting firm, Citygate Associates of Folsom, California. The draft 204-page document has 155 findings and 94 recommendations, including:
Improve methods and tools for communicating with the public.
There was not a clear, single, comprehensive voice speaking to evacuation, and not all notification tools were used or used often enough.
There was an over-reliance on Twitter; care must also be taken to account for the digital divide in which not everyone is on Twitter or even the internet.
Entry and repopulation policies were not well briefed to checkpoints or the public.
There is a need for greater inter-agency pre-incident evacuation and repopulation planning for the communities in Fire Hazard Severity Zones. No pre-prepared traffic evacuation plans/scenarios exist for the areas impacted by the Woolsey Fire. Evacuation plans also need corresponding repopulation plans at the earliest moment.
The following are needed to improve situational awareness: Research and investment in emerging technologies to reduce the “fog of war”. Increased practice, procedures, and technologies in melding the large County agency DOCs and Incident Management Teams (IMTs) into a virtual unified command, as if they were in one physical location, to reduce lag time in fast-tempo, complicated decisions. Real-time display of fire perimeter, hazards, actions, shelters, and evacuation orders for public consumption.
Improve coordination of multiple-agency emergency public messages.
Increase the speed and use of all alerting tools in wide-area, fast-paced disasters.
Address the impact of long-distance fire storm ember spotting through education and an emphasis on using layered buffer zones of appropriate defensible space and structure hardening techniques.
Encourage the major fire departments in the area to evaluate creating a sub-regional (three county) Multiple-Agency Coordination and Control Center within the State mutual aid system that will utilize technology to enhance situational awareness and create a shared, real-time intelligence, information, and command center on a round-the-clock basis. This concept should further existing agreements and enhance the ability of agencies to work collaboratively during the first one to two days of a catastrophic disaster, for the common welfare, at a pace faster than the Statewide mutual aid system can provide.
The county expects to hold at least two public meetings to present the report and solicit public input.
The fire threat for four areas in southern California on October 24 and 25 is described as “Moderate”. This example is for the Los Angeles and Ventura areas, showing Threat Level, Wind Strength, and Fuel Moisture on Thursday October 24.
A wildland fire danger forecasting tool called the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTI) is categorizing the fire threat from the strong winds predicted for Thursday and Friday of this week in southern California as “Moderate”. This includes Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange County, Inland Empire, and San Diego. The Santa Barbara area is shown as “no rating” for this week. Most other tools for predicting fire danger would use a stronger adjective for the predicted conditions.
The SAWTI uses a predictive model that includes wind strength, dead fuel moisture, live fuel moisture, atmospheric moisture, and the greenness of annual grasses to create a daily threat assessment of the fuel conditions across Southern California. The output is then compared to climatological data and historical fire occurrence to establish the index rating. It does not assess conditions in the central or northern part of the state.
The SAWTI is a product of the US Forest Service and Predictive Services, according to the website dedicated to the tool. The site does not specify which of the numerous Predictive Services and Forest Service offices are involved.
Red Flag Warnings, produced at 6:30 a.m. PDT October 23, 2019. Times are CDT.
For northern California the forecast on Thursday and Friday is for north to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph gusting at 35 to 45 with humidity in the teens. For southern California: northeast winds of 20 to 40 gusting up to 65 with humidity in the single digits. These predicted numbers vary depending on the exact location.
(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)
