NIFC’s wildfire potential outlook, January through April
The forecast for wildland fire potential issued January 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that for the next four months the potential for wildfires will be higher than average in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, and the central and southern plains.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“Nearly 90% of the West remains in drought, with a third of the West in the highest two categories of drought…. Most of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS observed below normal precipitation with portions of the central and southern Plains receiving no precipitation during December. Above normal precipitation was observed across much of the West into portions of the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes. Temperatures were above normal for most of the CONUS except along portions of the West Coast and Montana. Abnormally dry and drought conditions expanded across the southern Plains due to the prevalence of much above normal temperatures and little to no precipitation in December.
“Climate outlooks for winter into early spring indicate above normal temperatures are likely along the southern tier of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities likely in the South. Below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation are expected across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. The Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley are also likely to experience above normal precipitation through March. Below normal precipitation will likely accompany above normal temperatures across the southern third of the western US, through much of Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and into the Carolinas.
“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for much of the central and southern Plains January through April with several periods of critical conditions possible due to wind events. Above normal potential is forecast to expand into portions of south Texas in February then westward across far West Texas, southern New Mexico, and southeast Arizona March into April.
“Above normal significant fire potential is expected to expand from the eastern Carolinas in January into the remainder of the Carolinas and much of Florida and Georgia February through April. Above normal potential is also forecast for portions of Virginia in February that will expand into eastern West Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic for March.”
She appeared in fire prevention public service announcements
Betty White and Smokey Bear in One Less Spark, 2013.
Today the world lost one of its most beloved actresses, Betty White, who passed away weeks before her 100th birthday.
She worked in radio, television, and films for nine decades and may be best known for her work on the Mary Tyler Moore Show, Golden Girls, and Hot in Cleveland. She is also the only guest host of Saturday Night Live to receive a standing ovation at the end of the show.
Betty White and Forest Service Chief Tom Tidwell, November 9, 2010
But firefighters may remember her as an advocate for wildfire prevention and for the public service announcements she filmed. In 2010 she was appointed to the position of Honorary Forest Ranger. She said in interviews that she wanted to be a forest ranger as a little girl, but that women were not allowed to do that then. She was born in 1922.
The video below is part of a playlist of three very short pieces featuring Ms. White’s fire prevention activities.
YouTube won’t let the video below be added to the playlist because “it is intended for kids.” The 90-second video produced by the US Forest Service shows her being appointed to her position of Honorary Forest Ranger.
Additions to the Incident Command System Standards for Geospatial Operations
Updated April 27, 2022
ICS Symbology 2022
(Updated April 27, 2022 to reflect the revisions for 2022)
You may have seen new symbols on wildfire maps this year. That is because the National Wildfire Coordinating Group approved new symbology again, this time for the 2022 fire season.
They were developed by the NWCG Data Management Committee and are now part of the Incident Command System Standards for Geospatial Operations. Many of the new symbols introduced in the last few years are for various types of fireline, such as Planned Hand Line, Planned Mixed Construction Line, Planned Road as Line, Planned Secondary Line, Temporary Flight Restriction, Foam Drop, Retardant Drop, Escape Route, plus — Structure Wrap, Retardant in Avoidance Area, UAS Launch and Recovery Zone, and many more.
Some of the new symbols will be fairly easy to remember. Others, not so much. A map in color will be necessary to easily differentiate a few of them, such as Fence vs. Other vs. Road Repair, and the three types of drops, Water, Foam, and Retardant. Most maps have legends to make the interpretation easier, and ArcGIS Pro has a filter to only display the features used on the map.
Inhaled microscopic particles from wood smoke can work their way into the bloodstream and reach the brain, putting people at risk for premature aging and various forms of dementia, depression, and even psychosis
Satellite photo, smoke from California fires at 7:01 p.m. PDT Aug 4, 2021.
The research outlined below by the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center is further evidence of the importance of smoke management. Land managers, agency administrators, and incident management teams need to constantly consider methods of reducing smoke exposure to firefighters and the downwind population when planning, conducting, or suppressing wildfires and prescribed burns.
Woodsmoke from massive wildfires burning in California shrouded much of the West last summer, making it harder for people suffering from respiratory illnesses to breathe.
Those respiratory consequences can be dangerous — even life-threatening — but Matthew Campen, PhD, a professor in The University of New Mexico College of Pharmacy, sees another hazard hidden in the smoke.
In research published online this week in the journal Toxicological Sciences, Campen and his colleagues report that inhaled microscopic particles from woodsmoke work their way into the bloodstream and reach the brain, and may put people at risk for neurological problems ranging from premature aging and various forms of dementia to depression and even psychosis.
“These are fires that are coming through small towns and they’re burning up cars and houses,” Campen says. Microplastics and metallic particles of iron, aluminum and magnesium are lofted into the sky, sometimes traveling thousands of miles.
In the research study conducted last year at Laguna Pueblo, 41 miles west of Albuquerque and roughly 600 miles from the source of wildland fires, Campen and his team found that mice exposed to smoke-laden air for nearly three weeks under closely monitored conditions showed age-related changes in their brain tissue.
The findings highlight the hidden dangers of woodsmoke that might not be dense enough to trigger respiratory symptoms, Campen says.
As smoke rises higher in the atmosphere heavier particles fall out, he says. “It’s only these really small ultra-fine particles that travel a thousand miles to where we are. They’re more dangerous because the small particles get deeper into your lung and your lung has a harder time removing them as a result.”
When the particles burrow into lung tissue, it triggers the release of inflammatory immune molecules into the bloodstream, which carries them into the brain, where they start to degrade the blood-brain barrier, Campen says. That causes the brain’s own immune protection to kick in.
“It looks like there’s a breakdown of the blood-brain barrier that’s mild, but it still triggers a response from the protective cells in the brain — astrocytes and microglia — to sheathe it off and protect the rest of the brain from the factors in the blood,” he says.
“Normally the microglia are supposed to be doing other things, like helping with learning and memory,” Campen adds. The researchers found neurons showed metabolic changes suggesting that wildfire smoke exposure may add to the burden of aging-related impairments.
The research team included colleagues from the College of Pharmacy and the UNM Departments of Neurosciences, Geography & Environmental Studies, and Earth and Planetary Sciences, as well as researchers at Arizona State University, Michigan State University and Virginia Commonwealth University.
Story provided by University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center. Original written by Michael Haederle.
Journal Reference:
David Scieszka, Russell Hunter, Jessica Begay, Marsha Bitsui, Yan Lin, Joseph Galewsky, Masako Morishita, Zachary Klaver, James Wagner, Jack R Harkema, Guy Herbert, Selita Lucas, Charlotte McVeigh, Alicia Bolt, Barry Bleske, Christopher G Canal, Ekaterina Mostovenko, Andrew K Ottens, Haiwei Gu, Matthew J Campen, Shahani Noor. Neuroinflammatory and neurometabolomic consequences from inhaled wildfire smoke-derived particulate matter in the Western United States. Toxicological Sciences, 2021; DOI: 10.1093/toxsci/kfab147
Research shows that warming shortens the time between beetle generations, supercharging beetle population growth
Pine trees killed by bark beetles. Photo by Ethan Miller.
In California’s Sierra Nevada, western pine beetle infestations amped up by global warming were found to kill 30% more ponderosa pine trees than the beetles do under drought alone. A new supercomputer modeling study hints at the grim prospect of future catastrophic tree die-offs and offers insights for mitigating the combined risk of wildfires and insect outbreaks.
“Forests represent a crucial buffer against warming climate and are often touted as an inexpensive mitigation strategy against climate change,” said Zachary Robbins, a researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory, graduate student at North Carolina State University, and lead author of the paper on beetles and ponderosa pine tree die-offs. “Our research shows that warming shortens the time between beetle generations, supercharging beetle population growth. That can then spur catastrophic mortality in forest systems during drought in the Sierra Nevada and throughout the Western United States.”
In the recently published study in Global Change Biology, Robbins and his collaborators developed a new modeling framework to assess the risk western pine beetles, or bark beetles, pose in many forest ecosystems under climate change. If the effects of compromised tree defenses (15% to 20%) and increased bark beetle populations (20%) are additive, the team determined that 35% to 40% more ponderosa pines would die from beetle attacks for each degree Celsius of warming.
“Our study is the first to attribute a level of tree mortality to the direct effect of warming on bark beetles, using a model that captures both beetle reproduction and development rates and host stress,” Robbins said. “We found that even slight increases in the number of annual generations of bark beetles due to warming can significantly increase tree mortality during drought.”
Using Los Alamos supercomputers, the team modeled bark beetle dynamics and tree die-off during the extreme drought of 2012-2015 and earlier periods. Then they investigated those results using field observations of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, tree density, tree mortality, and beetle flight initiation (when fully developed beetles leave their tree of origin) along with lab studies on beetle rate of development.
They found that a quicker rate of producing new generations of off-spring contributed more to killer infestations than did surviving the winter in the absence of cold temperatures fatal to the beetle, yet, surprisingly, the increase in the number of generations was not very big.
“In the Sierra, we saw only about one-third more generations per year, but that really amplified mortality,” Robbins said. “It shows that a small impact in the success of these populations can have a big impact on tree mortality, where we previously thought the beetle needed one whole generation increase to substantially impact mortality.
“These findings should generally apply to many species of pine forests around the West, although the beetle species might be different,” said Chonggang Xu, coauthor of the paper. A senior scientist at Los Alamos, Xu simulates forest-vegetation dynamics in his research.
“Beetle-instigated die-off may cause forests to act as carbon sources to the atmosphere for decades,” Xu said. “Dead trees don’t absorb CO2 but release carbon to the atmosphere. This could potentially raise global forecasts of atmospheric carbon, which has not yet been explicitly considered in current-generation earth-system models.”
The research also has implications for forest management under climate change.
“A mechanistic understanding of the interactions among climate, forests, and disturbances can improve the planning of forest management actions and better predict the effects of climate change on biological systems,” Robbins said.
Older, bigger ponderosas are particularly vulnerable to beetle attacks because their size supports large infestations, Xu said, while younger, smaller trees can survive.
“A diverse forest that combines small and big trees and species diversity, as well, is more resilient,” Xu said. He pointed out that forest management to minimize wildfire risk often removes the smaller trees and preserves the larger ones, “which creates a forest of big trees. Then the beetle comes and the trees could be devastated at the same time.”
Bark beetles kill trees worldwide by chewing through bark and depositing their larvae in the inner bark. An increasing number of beetle outbreaks in the past two decades have devastated forests across the American West, including New Mexico, striking nearly 11 million acres nationwide and threatening the basic structure and ecological processes of some forests.
The beetles exploit the warming, drying climate in the West. When precipitation and temperature remain at historic levels, trees can defend themselves from infestation, but drought often sparks bark beetle outbreaks. That is because water-stressed trees suppress their photosynthesis, close their stoma, and grow more slowly, depleting their carbon storage, which may weaken their defenses.
The life-cycle of the beetle depends on temperature under the bark and in the air. Warmer temperatures reduce the number of beetles killed off by deep winter cold and accelerate and extend the breeding season. Outbreaks finally collapse when bark beetles exhaust the supply of susceptible trees, acutely cold temperatures kill off the beetles, or predators and parasites decimate bark beetle populations.
The study considered historic and contemporary temperature trends in a broad swath of the Sierra Nevada, including several national forests and Kings Canyon, Sequoia, and Yosemite National Parks.
In a new approach, the team used a model of the breeding cycles and population dynamics of bark beetles. The team incorporated this model into a tree-death and insect-attack model, which accounts for the number of bark beetles in flight, the number and size of trees available as hosts, and the drought. The models were validated against data from field observations.
Paper: “Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California,” by Zachary J. Robbins, Chonggang Xu, Brian H. Aukema, Polly C. Buotte, Rutuja Chitra-Tarak, Christopher J. Fettig, Michael L. Goulden, Devin W. Goodsman, Alexander D. Hall, Charles D. Koven, Lara M. Kueppers, Gavin D. Madakumbura, Leif A. Mortenson, James A. Powell, Robert M. Scheller, in Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15927.
Funding: University of California National Laboratory Fees Research Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
From Los Alamos National Laboratory. The paper, funded by taxpayers, is not open source. Copies are priced at $59.
Six hotshot crews: Los Padres, Horseshoe, Fulton, Springville, Breckenridge & Kern Valley
The holidays at the end of the year can be tough for many people, including wildland firefighters. With that in mind we are re-running this article from a few months ago.
Wildland firefighters on crews that are often deployed on endless 14-day assignments far from home may become acclimated to the high energy adrenaline-fueled environment. They are part of a team working toward the same clear objective, constructing fireline, installing hose lays, or mopping up. The goal is usually very obvious, and when done they can look back and see what they accomplished while part of a group that over months together could complete each other’s sentences. They know what each would do when faced with a pulse-elevating situation, or how they deal with boredom while waiting for a ride back to fire camp.
When the fire season is over, their environment goes through a metamorphose. Almost overnight they may find themselves with their spouse, significant other, children, parents, non-fire friends, or, alone — a completely different situation from the previous six months. Some firefighters adapt more easily than others. Those that don’t, may experience mental health issues and mild or severe depression. Spouses or children of the often-absent firefighter may also show symptoms.
In the last five years we have learned that the suicide rates of wildland firefighters is “astronomical”, according to information developed by Nelda St. Clair of the Bureau of Land Management in 2017. It is high even when compared with structural firefighters, which is also higher than the general population.
As we approach the slower part of the fire year, especially for those who are employed less than full time, if you know someone who seems very depressed, it is OK to ask them if they are thinking about suicide. Some people think this will spur suicide attempts but that is not accurate. Encouraging them to talk could be the first step leading them to safety.
This video encourages that communication. (I’m told that some of the people in the video are YouTubers. It features Hannah Hart, Liza Koshy, Markiplier, Meredith Foster, Orion Carloto, Remi Cruz, Shannon Beveridge, Tyler Oakley, and Tyler Posey.)
Members of the military returning from deployment can also have difficulties readjusting to life back at home. A Department of Defense webpage has information on the subject that appears to be directed toward the spouse. Here is an excerpt.
Depression and Suicide Prevention
Depression can happen to anyone – resulting in long-term feelings that affect an individual’s mood and daily activities. Service members may be facing challenges during reintegration that seem completely overwhelming, but understanding the warning signs for depression and suicide can help you intervene and get the them the help that they need. Signs to be aware of include:
–A range of emotions and changes in personality, including repeated and intense feelings of sadness, anxiety, hopelessness or pessimism
–A loss of interest in life or hobbies and prolonged periods of crying or sleeping
–Substance abuse or withdrawal from friends and family
–Displays of emotional distress in online activity
–Excessive feelings of guilt, shame or a sense of failure
–Physical symptoms like weight loss or weight gain, decreased energy, headaches, digestive issues or back pain
–Talking about dying or seeking information about death.
Help is available for those feeling really depressed or suicidal.
National Suicide Prevention Lifeline: 800-273-8255. Online Chat.
Anonymous assistance from the Wildland Firefighter Foundation: 208-336-2996.
Code Green Campaign, a first responder oriented mental health advocacy organization.
Would you rather communicate with a counselor by text? If you are feeling really depressed or suicidal, a crisis counselor will TEXT with you. The Crisis Text Line runs a free service. Just text: 741-741
The forecast for wildland fire potential issued January 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that for the next four months the potential for wildfires will be higher than average in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, and the central and southern plains.
