Wildfire potential through February, 2016

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook through February, 2016. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their forecasts are accurate, it looks like pretty benign conditions across the United States this winter except for southern California in November.

Here are the highlights from their outlook.

November

wildfire potential

  • Significant fire potential has reduced to normal fall conditions across most of the U.S.
  • Above normal significant fire potential will continue across southern California due to continued drought. All areas of above normal potential should return to normal by the end of November.
  • A Large portion of the southern U.S. will see below normal significant fire potential. Typical fire activity should be less than usual across a majority of the eastern U.S. for the fall.
  • Puerto Rico and the Hawaiian Islands will see below normal conditions as well.
  • Elsewhere normal fall conditions will prevail.

December

wildfire potential

  • No areas of above normal significant fire potential will remain in the U.S.
  • Portions of the Southeastern U.S., Hawaiian Islands and Puerto Rico will continue to see below normal potential.
  • Normal conditions are expected elsewhere.

January-February, 2016

wildfire potential

  • Portions of the Southeastern U.S, and Puerto Rico will continue to see below normal potential.
  • Normal conditions are expected elsewhere.

Wildfire briefing, November 5, 2015

Deceased man found in vegetation fire

Firefighters found the body of a 90-year-old man in a brushfire on November 3 near Bainbridge, Ohio. Preliminary indications are that Melvin B. Elliott was raking leaves during the early stages of the fire, but the cause of death has not been determined.

California city bans drones during emergencies

The city council of Poway, California passed a new ordinance this week that prohibits launching, operating or landing drones in any part of the city where an emergency has been declared. The objective is to eliminate conflicts between unmanned aerial vehicles and helicopters or fixed wing aircraft responding to the incident. Several times this year hobby drones flown near wildfires have required firefighting helicopters and air tankers to be grounded for safety reasons.

Efforts to wrest control of federal lands can’t be ignored

The movement to grab federal lands, such as national forests, BLM land, and national parks, and turn it over to states or private landowners can’t be ignored. The efforts are real and are not going away. At least 37 land transfer bills have been introduced in state legislatures with six of them passing; another four have been finalized as “study” legislation.

Below is an excerpt from an article in Wyofile written by Angus M. Thuermer Jr., in which the view is expressed that one of the tactics is to starve federal agencies by reducing their funding, then accuse them of mismanagement, and arguing that states, individuals, or large companies would be better land managers.

[The views of Whit Fosburgh, president and CEO of the Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership] illuminate the seriousness with which some in the conservation community are now viewing the renewed Sagebrush Rebellion. The movement is supported by a strategy that’s decades old — starving land management agencies — transfer critics say. Launched under the guise of deficit reduction and fiscal responsibility, budget cutting is also a cynical ploy to sow dissatisfaction of federal western land management at the grassroots level, Fosburgh contends.

Map of fires in Indonesia

Indonesia fires Nov 5, 2015 map
The red areas represent heat detected by a satellite over Indonesia on November 5, 2015. NASA.

The map shows heat from wildfires detected by the MODIS satellite over Indonesia on November 5, 2015.

Yesterday we wrote about the United States sending some fire equipment to Indonesia, where massive wildfires are burning across the 3,100-mile length of the country creating very serious air quality issues. Visibility in some cities has been reduced to about 100 feet.

 

United States sends firefighting equipment to Indonesia

US aid to Indonesia fires
US aid to Indonesian firefighters. USAID photo by Janice Laurente.

On November 2 more than 21 metric tons of wildland firefighting equipment arrived in Indonesia from the United States to assist firefighters who are dealing with what has been described as “almost certainly the greatest environmental disaster of the 21st century”. Massive wildfires are burning across the 3,100-mile length of the country creating very serious air quality issues. Visibility in some cities has been reduced to about 100 feet. Children are being prepared to be evacuated in warships, deaths have been blamed on the smoke, and in Riau as of September 4 officials reported over 10,133 cases of respiratory infection.

Producers of palm oil in Indonesia frequently set fires to clear land, but the weather effects of El Niño have made the situation far worse than normal, with one estimate that the fires are producing more daily emissions than the entire US economy.

The contributions from the United States to help mitigate this disaster have amounted to four technical experts and 5,000 sets of gloves, shirts, jeans, hand tools, and safety goggles. The shipment, organized by USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, was described by the U.S. Forest Service as “the largest US international fire supply support ever”.

The USFS put the order together for USAID at their fire cache in Redding, California. It was then transported to Indonesia on a Korean Air aircraft.

Firefighting equipment Indonesia
Firefighting equipment for Indonesia prepared on pallets for shipment. USAID photo by Paul Zerr.
Firefighting equipment Indonesia
The equipment being unloaded in Indonesia, November 2, 2015. USAID photo.
Firefighting equipment Indonesia
USAID personnel inspect the supplies after arrival in Indonesia. USAID photo.