The forecast for wildland fire potential issued August 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and the mountainous areas of California will have above normal fire potential in August and September. Even into October much of the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and coastal mountains of Southern California will still be above normal.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of the CONUS, especially the West, into fall. The northern Intermountain West is likely to have drier than normal conditions in August, expanding to include most of the West during fall. Near normal precipitation is likely with the monsoon in August, which should continue to alleviate drought. However, drought is likely to expand and intensify across much of the West into fall.
“Much of Southern Area and areas south of the Ohio River are likely to have below normal significant fire potential through September, but much of the Southeast U.S. is forecast to have above normal fire potential in October and November. Normal significant fire potential is forecast for Alaska along with most of Eastern Area.
“Above normal significant fire potential is likely to remain in portions of northern Minnesota into August. Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to continue through September for much of the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and northern portions of the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas. Most of these areas will return to normal fire potential in October and November. Most mountains and foothills in California are forecast to have above normal potential through September with areas prone to offshore winds likely to retain above normal potential into October and November in southern California. Leeside locations in Hawaii are likely to have above normal significant fire potential into October.”
Still image from the Jack Jones “Unskilled Labor” documentary
When U.S. Rep. Tom McClintock of California called wildland firefighters “unskilled labor”earlier this month it provoked strong responses from the highly trained, professional, tactical athletes who put their bodies on the fireline to protect our citizens and forests.
One of those reacting was Jack Jones who was motivated by the criticism to put together the video he shot last year while serving as a highly skilled firefighter on the Idaho-based Sawtooth Hotshots. The resulting 26-minute documentary is titled, “Unskilled Labor” A Season with the Hotshots.
Still image from the Jack Jones “Unskilled Labor” documentary
The video is the best I have seen that captures what it is like to work with 20 other highly skilled professional firefighters over the course of a fire season — digging fireline, mopping up, firing out, and hiking impossibly steep terrain while carrying heavy loads. Mr. Jones narrates as we see excellent photography of scenes that most people can’t even imagine. It brought me back to the five seasons I spent on Southern California hotshot crews.
Mr. Jones addresses thoroughly the ridiculous comment by Representative McClintock about “unskilled labor”.
The viewer may be left with the conclusion that if the trained and experienced firefighters on Hotshot crews were not skilled, instead of returning home after a fire assignment they could be in a cemetery.
For the last couple of days wildfires in Southern British Columbia have been producing large quantities of smoke which has been drifting into Alberta, North-central US, the American Midwest, and points further east. The forecast for Saturday night indicates this trend is continuing.
Clouds have made it difficult for satellites to photograph smoke coming from the Bootleg Fire in Oregon and the Dixie Fire in California.
Satellite photo showing smoke from fires in BC and Montana at 7:40 p.m. MDT July 30, 2021.
The Capitol, Washington, DC. Photo by Bill Gabbert
A $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill with funding for some wildland fire issues passed an important procedural vote in the Senate Friday that opened up the legislative package to the next phase, potential changes and amendments. In the evenly divided body at least 60 votes are needed for amendments and final passage. It received 66 today which allows it to move forward in the process. The Senate version of the bill is S.2377 – Energy Infrastructure Act.
About 0.3 percent, or approximately $3,369,000,000 in this $1 trillion “small” infrastructure bill is directed at wildland fire. Another infrastructure bill that may spend more than $3 trillion will be considered later.
The $1 trillion version appropriates funds toward a couple of dozen wildland fire issues, most of which are important, but especially a few that have been near and dear to the hearts of Federal firefighters Forestry Technicians for years, especially the creation of a Wildland Firefighter occupational series. This would mean if the bill passes they will no longer be pigeonholed as they are now in a Forestry Technician job description. A bump in salary is also included.
After it made it onto the Senate floor this week things started happening quickly. While amendments can be brought forward, there is hope that the final version could receive a vote in a matter of days, perhaps as early as Sunday August 1. If not then, probably soon thereafter. However, with politicians and legislation anything is possible — or sometimes impossible. After it passes the Senate, then it moves to the House where the outcome is less certain. The politicians and staffers are motivated to do SOMETHING, because they are anxious to leave on their August recess.
The bill authorizes $600 million for management of personnel — those who fight fires.
The bill directs OPM to develop a distinct “wildland firefighter” occupational series.
The DOI and FS shall convert no fewer than 1,000 seasonal wildland firefighters to wildland firefighters that are full-time, permanent, year-round Federal employees who will reduce hazardous fuels on Federal land for at least 800 hours each year.
The base salaries of Federal wildland firefighters will be increased by the lesser of an amount that is commensurate with an increase of $20,000 per year or an amount equal to 50 percent of the base salary.
Develop mitigation strategies for wildland firefighters to minimize exposure due to line-of-duty environmental hazards.
Establish programs for permanent, temporary, seasonal, and year-round wildland firefighters to recognize and address mental health needs, including care for post-traumatic stress disorder.
Other provisions of the the bill, authorized for fiscal years 2022 through 2026. (M = million)
$20M, Satellite fire detection
$10M, Radio interoperability
$30M, Reverse 911 systems
$50M, Slip-on firefighting modules for pickup trucks
$100M, Pre-fire planning, and training personnel for wildland firefighting and vegetation treatments
$20M, Data management for fuels projects and large fires
$20M, Joint Fire Science Program (research)
$100M, Planning & implementing projects under the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program
$500M, Wildfire defense grants for at risk communities
$500M, Prescribed fires
$500M, Constructing fuelbreaks
$200M, Remove fuels, produce biochar and other innovative wood products
$200M, Post-fire restoration
$8M, Firewood banks
$10M, Wildfire detection and real-time monitoring equipment
One issue this legislation does not address is the inadequate funding of aerial firefighting, the use of air tankers and helicopters to assist firefighters on the ground by dropping water or retardant to slow the spread of wildfires, which is necessary for Homeland Security. The Federal agencies entered the year with 18 large air tankers and 28 large Type 1 helicopters, when they should have 40 large air tankers and 50 large helicopters on exclusive use 10-year contracts instead of the existing 1-year contracts.
A new study finds a 17.7 percent rise in COVID-19 cases after a prolonged 2020 wildfire smoke event in Reno, Nev.
Lava Fire, pyrocumulus at 1:42 p.m. June 28, 2021.
By Kelsey Fitzgerald
Wildfire smoke may greatly increase susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, according to new research from the Center for Genomic Medicine at the Desert Research Institute (DRI), Washoe County Health District (WCHD), and Renown Health (Renown) in Reno, Nevada.
In a study published earlier this week in the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, the DRI-led research team set out to examine whether smoke from 2020 wildfires in the Western U.S. was associated with an increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections in Reno.
To explore this, the study team used models to analyze the relationship between fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) from wildfire smoke and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity rate data from Renown Health, a large, integrated healthcare network serving Nevada, Lake Tahoe, and northeast California. According to their results, PM 2.5 from wildfire smoke was responsible for a 17.7 percent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases that occurred during a period of prolonged smoke that took place between Aug. 16 and Oct. 10, 2020.
During the time of the study, a map showed the forecast for the distribution of near-surface wildfire smoke at 6 p.m. MDT August 23, 2020. RealEarth.
“Our results showed a substantial increase in the COVID-19 positivity rate in Reno during a time when we were affected by heavy wildfire smoke from California wildfires,” said Daniel Kiser, M.S., co-lead author of the study and assistant research scientist of data science at DRI. “This is important to be aware of as we are already confronting heavy wildfire smoke from the Beckwourth Complex fire and with COVID-19 cases again rising in Nevada and other parts of the Western U.S.”
Reno, located in Washoe County (population 450,000) of northern Nevada, was exposed to higher concentrations of PM2.5 for longer periods of time in 2020 than other nearby metropolitan areas, including San Francisco. Reno experienced 43 days of elevated PM2.5 during the study period, as opposed to 26 days in the San Francisco Bay Area.
“We had a unique situation here in Reno last year where we were exposed to wildfire smoke more often than many other areas, including the Bay Area,” said Gai Elhanan, M.D., co-lead author of the study and associate research scientist of computer science at DRI. “We are located in an intermountain valley that restricts the dispersion of pollutants and possibly increases the magnitude of exposure, which makes it even more important for us to understand smoke impacts on human health.”
Kiser’s and Elhanan’s new research builds upon past work of studies in San Francisco and Orange County by controlling for additional variables such as the general prevalence of the virus, air temperature, and the number of tests administered, in a location that was heavily impacted by wildfire smoke.
“We believe that our study greatly strengthens the evidence that wildfire smoke can enhance the spread of SARS-CoV-2,” said Elhanan. “We would love public health officials across the U.S. to be a lot more aware of this because there are things we can do in terms of public preparedness in the community to allow people to escape smoke during wildfire events.”
More information:
Additional study authors include William Metcalf (DRI), Brendan Schnieder (WCHD), and Joseph Grzymski, a corresponding author (DRI/Renown). This research was funded by Renown Health and the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development Coronavirus Relief Fund.
The full text of the study, “SARS-CoV-2 test positivity rate in Reno, Nevada: association with PM2.5 during the 2020 wildfire smoke events in the western United States,” is available from the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41370-021-00366-w
New COVID rule also applies to federal contractors
Firefighters take a break on the Robertson Draw Fire on the Custer Gallatin National Forest in Montana, June 22, 2021. InciWeb photo.
Thursday afternoon President Biden announced that federal workers will need to be vaccinated for COVID or they will have to wear masks and be tested on a regular basis.
“Every federal government employee will be asked to attest to their vaccination status,” the President said in a live broadcast from the White House. “Anyone who does not attest or is not vaccinated will be required to mask no matter where they work, test one or two times a week to see if they’ve acquired COVID, socially distance, and generally will not be allowed to travel for work. Likewise, today, I’m directing my administration to take steps to apply similar standards to all federal [onsite] contractors. If you want to do business with the federal government, get your workers vaccinated.”
Strengthening Safety Protocols for Federal Employees and Federal Contractors. Today, the President will announce that to help protect workers and their communities, every federal government employee and onsite contractor will be asked to attest to their vaccination status. Anyone who does not attest to being fully vaccinated will be required to wear a mask on the job no matter their geographic location, physically distance from all other employees and visitors, comply with a weekly or twice weekly screening testing requirement, and be subject to restrictions on official travel.
These rules should not only apply to federal workers and onsite contractors. President Biden is directing his team to take steps to apply similar standards to all federal contractors. The Administration will encourage employers across the private sector to follow this strong model.
We have asked the federal land management agencies how this requirement will be implemented among firefighters. When we hear back, we will update this article.
The pandemic is still occurring, but primarily among the unvaccinated. An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May showed that 98.9 percent of hospitalized COVID patients had not received the vaccine.
Already this year Oregonlive.com is reporting that nine people working on Oregon’s Bootleg Fire have tested positive. Since this type of data is very difficult to obtain, it is possible that nine people on one fire is just the tip of the iceberg. Today’s Situation Report shows 66 large un-contained fires staffed by 21,544 individuals.
Of those, 569 had recovered at that time, Mr. Florea said, but 74 had not yet fully recovered or returned to work as of January 19. There have been no reported fatalities in the FS tied to coronavirus, he said.
NBC News reported August 29, 2020 that one BLM employee in Alaska died August 13 shortly after testing positive while on the job. Another was in critical condition at that time.
At least 222 Federal fire personnel had tested positive according to NBC:
U.S. Forest Service: 122
Bureau of Indian Affairs: 54
Bureau of Land Management: 45
Fish and Wildlife Service: 1
National Park Service: (would not disclose the number to NBC News)
At the end of the 2020 fire season the Department of the Interior refused to disclose how many fire personnel in their four land management agencies tested positive.
Some people may think they are in good shape and probably won’t get COVID, and if they do it will not be severe. But that is a very selfish attitude. They could get it, be non-symptomatic and spread it to their significant other, spouse, children, grandparents, work group, or anyone else they come in contact with.
There is a lot we do not know about the disease, especially the long term effects being reported by “long-haulers” or “long COVID”. The CDC reports that “a recent study found that about 3 in 10 COVID-19 patients reported experiencing persistent symptoms for as long as 9 months after illness”.
A study in the UK found that people who had COVID performed worse on intelligence tests. From Psypost.org:
“For their study, [lead researcher Adam] Hampshire and his team analyzed data from 81,337 participants who completed the intelligence test between January and December 2020. Of the entire sample, 12,689 individuals reported that they had experienced COVID-19, with varying degrees of respiratory severity.
“After controlling for factors such as age, sex, handedness, first language, education level, and other variables, the researchers found that those who had contracted COVID-19 tended to underperform on the intelligence test compared to those who had not contracted the virus. The greatest deficits were observed on tasks requiring reasoning, planning and problem solving, which is in line “with reports of long-COVID, where ‘brain fog,’ trouble concentrating, and difficulty finding the correct words are common,” the researchers said.
“Previous research has also found that a large proportion of COVID-19 survivors are affected by neuropsychiatric and cognitive complications.
“ ‘We need to be careful as it looks like the virus could be affecting our cognition. We do not fully understand how, why, or for how long, but we urgently need to find out. In the meantime, don’t take unnecessary risks and do get vaccinated,’ Hampshire told PsyPost.”
The bottom line is, if you are hesitant to get vaccinated, don’t get your scientific advice from Reddit, Facebook, Twitter, or a TV show trying to generate ratings. Check out the advice given by scientists.
