Forecasts are still being fine-tuned, but it appears likely that areas of Northern California, Oregon, and Washington will receive huge amounts of precipitation over the next seven days, with portions of Northern California getting more than 10 inches.
At least four waves of atmospheric rivers are barreling across the Pacific targeting the West Coast. The animated GIF below illustrates the progression of these “rivers.”
Predictions are subject to change, but the first band, beginning Thursday morning, will have the heaviest impacts in WA, OR, and northwest CA.
Sunday morning will bring another, centered in Central California.
The third wave will start to come through Tuesday, with the heaviest precipitation expected in Northern CA and OR.
The forecast could change over the next seven days, but the prediction is that another wave will primarily impact OR and WA on Thursday, Oct. 28.
With it already being the second half of October, it is likely that these atmospheric rivers will bring an end to the wildland fire season in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. Most of Southern California south of Santa Barbara is expected to receive less than a half inch of precipitation, so if the rest of of the year there is warm, dry, and windy the area could still see more wildfire activity.
The three-month temperature and precipitation outlook issued today predicts November through January conditions in SoCal that will be warmer and drier than average. But if significant precipitation occurs in the next seven days, it would require some serious Santa Ana wind events to dry the soils and vegetation enough to enable large fires to occur.
Three-month temperature and precipitation outlook issued October 21, 2021.
And allow them more time at home during the fire season
Inyo Hotshots on the KNP Complex of fires, Sept. 29, 2021. InciWeb.
Guest post By Tim Swedberg
On September 26, Wildfire Today published an article titled, Survey of Wildland Firefighter Spouses Finds the Job Creates Stress for the Family. The Survey tabulated responses from 1,841 persons including 1,599 from the Forest Service. One of the findings was “78.1 percent of respondents feel stress due to wildland firefighters’ absence.” Respondents also identified the need for “less demanding work schedule that provides for more days off.”
The critical issue is fatigue and its effects
Much of the work/rest research was completed over 20 years ago at the Missoula Technical Development Center (MTDC) and the University of Montana. The Spring 2002 MTDC No. 5 Health and Safety Report provided recommendations focused on: work/rest, assignment length, shift length, and much more.
From this research the National Wildfire Coordinating Group provided a guidance letter dated February 6, 2004, which states, “for fatigue management purposes and in line with credible research recommendations, a 2-day-off-after-14-day assignment standard (exclusive of travel) has been adopted”.
The 2002 research recommendations were a step forward, but (to the best of my knowledge) there has been little or no new wildland firefighter fatigue research commissioned or developed that could drive revision of the current policy.
Considering the increased deployment tempo, fire intensity, and size of current-day fires, it is both prudent and essential to revisit and validate or update the existing 20-year-old work/rest/fatigue recommendations with new and on-going research information. The Joint Fire Science Program, Forest Service Research Stations, and universities can lead in the development of critical new information to update fire management policy.
Is there a way to address the concerns of 78 percent of families that “feel stress due to wildland firefighters’ absence”? The answer is YES!
Back to the roots of Hot Shot crews
In the late 1940’s El Cariso, Del Rosa, and the Los Prietos Hot Shots were created as 30 person crews. In those early days all 30 firefighters would deploy to an incident.
1970 El Cariso Hot Shots
Today, I suggest a return to the 30-person (3 modules) Interagency Hotshot Crew (IHC) strength. Rather than dispatch all 3 modules, only 2 modules would respond. This leaves a 10-person module at home for a week of quality rest exclusive of travel. After 7 days the module left at home would replace one of the modules on the fire and one of the modules on the fire would return home for a week. This weekly rotation would continue throughout the fire season and could be accomplished without exceeding the 14-day assignment standard as no crewmember would work beyond 14 days. The rotation provides certainty for families that once every three weeks the firefighter will be working at their home unit.
Adoption of this suggestion means that Incident Management Teams will always receive a full two-module IHC Type 1 crew as is common practice today. The rotation also provides the IHC crew with 10 fresh replenishments every seven days exclusive of travel.
Clearly existing work/rest policies are detrimental to both firefighters and their families as evidenced by the Wildfire Today reporting of November 4, 2017 Suicide Rate Among Wildland firefighters is “astronomical.” The good news is, a fix could be developed and adopted without legislation. Let’s see if the rotating 30-person crew can diminish stress at home and on the fireline. I look forward to your thoughts.
—
Tim Swedberg is a retired Palomar Hotshot firefighter and captain, fuels manager on the Mt. Hood National Forest, and during his last 10 years served as Communications Director for the Joint Fire Science Program — for 40 years of total service.
One of the provisions in that legislation, the creation of a “Federal Wildland Firefighter Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Database”, is interesting. About three years ago the Firefighter Cancer Registry Act of 2018 which passed July 7, 2018, required that the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), an agency within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), establish a Firefighter Cancer Registry. The goal was to better understand the link between workplace exposures and cancer among firefighters. NIOSH has been piddling around with this for four years, led by Kenny Fent, accomplishing very little.
Kudos to the legislators who will attempt to get it done another way, after apparently giving up on the NIOSH Firefighter Cancer Registry.
The bill would increase their take home pay by raising firefighters’ salaries and would provide other benefits:
Raise federal wildland firefighter pay to at least $20 an hour, and add “portal-to-portal” compensation;
Create a federal wildland firefighter classification series, so wildland firefighters are appropriately classified for the dangerous work they are doing;
Provide health care and mental health services to temporary and permanent wildland firefighters, including:
creating a national “Federal Wildland Firefighter Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Database” to track chronic disease caused by on the job environmental exposure throughout the lives of current and past wildland firefighters, and
launching a mental health awareness campaign, a mental health education and training program and an extensive peer to peer mental health support network for wildland firefighters and immediate family.
Ensure all federal wildland firefighters earn retirement benefits for temporary seasonal employment, retroactively applying to the last 10 years of service (this has been corrected, and applies to service since 1989;
Provide 1 week of mental health leave for wildland firefighters;
Provide housing stipends for all firefighters on duty more than 50 miles from their primary residence; and
Provide tuition assistance for all permanent federal employees in the wildland firefighter classification.
The bill would affect the approximately 15,000 firefighters that work for the National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Fish and Wildlife Service, and Forest Service. Their salaries are far below that found in some county, state, and municipal fire departments which has resulted in an exodus of trained and experienced fire personnel to other organizations, and makes recruitment of their replacements difficult.
Currently, wildland firefighters are primarily classified as “forestry technicians,” paid an hourly wage of $13.45 at the starting GS-3 level, and are often can’t afford the costs of housing while on the job. According to recent studies, firefighters nationwide commit suicide 30 times as often as the general public and have a 30% increased risk for cardiovascular diseases, and 43% increase for lung cancer.
The proposed legislation was announced during a virtual press conference Tuesday. Speakers in support included Rep. Joe Neguse (CO) and co-sponsor Rep. Salud Carbajal (CA). Other co-sponsors include Rep. Katie Porter (CA) and Rep. Liz Cheney (WY). Mr. Neguse is Co-Chair of the Bipartisan Wildfire Caucus.
The bill is named after Tim Hart, a smokejumper who died May 24, 2021 after a hard landing while parachuting into the Eicks Fire in New Mexico. Mr. Hart’s widow, Michelle Hart, was one of the speakers at the virtual press conference, expressing her support of the legislation.
“Tim would be humbled and honored to have this legislation be a part of his legacy,” she said. “These issues were deeply important and personal to him. Wildland firefighters deserve to be recognized and compensated for the grueling conditions in which they work and for putting their lives on the line every day. This legislation is a major step forward in achieving that goal.”
The legislation has not yet been introduced, and after that step it has to make it through several committees before it can be voted on in the full House of Representatives. One of those committees, the National Parks, Forests, and Public Lands subcommittee, is chaired by Mr. Neguse who said he will arrange for a hearing on the bill.
Mr. Neguse said he was reasonably certain that a companion Senate bill will be introduced in the coming weeks.
The bill is endorsed by Grassroots Wildland Firefighters, International Association of Firefighters, U.S. Hotshots Association, National Smokejumper Association, Wildland Firefighter Foundation, Eric Marsh Foundation, National Federation of Federal Employees, and Team Rubicon.
The Grassroots Wildland Firefighters, one of the organizations that provided input as the legislation was being formulated, issued a statement on the legislation:
“We urge all members of congress to support Tim’s Act, if you represent a district impacted by wildfire or any type of natural disaster, please understand how these needed fixes impact the well-being of the men and women responding to those incidents.” said Luke Mayfield, GWF Vice President, adding that, “simultaneously Grassroots Wildland Firefighters will work to keep firefighters and their families briefed on how the bill would impact their lives.”
Yesterday the Bureau of Land Management published a slickly-produced three-minute video that is an introduction to the wildland fire management activities of the agency.
The BLM’s description of the video:
“The BLM, a leader in wildland fire management, conducts a broad range of actions to protect the public, natural landscapes, wildlife habitat, recreational areas, and other values and resources. The agency’s national fire and aviation program, BLM Fire, which focuses on public safety as its top priority, consists of fire suppression, preparedness, predictive services, vegetative fuels management, community assistance and protection, and fire prevention through education. To meet its wildland fire-related challenges, the BLM fields highly trained professional firefighters and managers who are committed to managing fire in the most effective and efficient manner.”
Upper-air profiles detected with sodar can measure upper-air winds before they begin at the surface
Sodar system used in the upper-air profiler pilot test. Image courtesy of Sonoma Technology.
A team of researchers with Pyregence have developed a system for predicting when strong upper-air winds will descend to the surface 8 to 10 hours in advance. Strong wind is the environmental factor that is virtually always present during catastrophic wildfire events that destroy hundreds of structures and put thousands of residents at great risk. Fuel conditions, humidity, and topography are also important factors, but few fires become fire storms without strong winds. Predicting the onset of a wind event can affect the deployment of firefighters, the tactics they employ on existing fires, and allow better decisions about preemptive power shutoffs, community warnings, and evacuations.
A device called sodar blasts a very loud 91-decibel pulsing beep into the sky which is then scattered by atmospheric turbulence back to the sodar, allowing profile calculations of wind speed, direction, and height.
Below is an excerpt from an article at Pyregence.org:
Profilers offer distinct advantages over other data collection methods. Most upper-atmosphere weather data is collected using radiosondes, instruments carried aloft, generally by balloon, two times a day. Profilers, by contrast, gather data two or three times every hour, and they also collect more detailed information throughout the lowest levels of the atmosphere—factors that allow for more accurate forecasts.
In 2003, for example, a profiler in New Mexico detected intensifying upper-air winds that had been missed by nearby radiosonde observations. The profiler helped forecasters accurately predict a midnight wind surge, giving fire crews the information they needed to rapidly contain the spread of the fire.
“Sodars have the ability to provide information that you can’t get from other instruments, and that are not available in the surface meteorological network,” says Kenneth Craig, a Senior Atmospheric Scientist and Meteorologist with Sonoma Technology, an environmental consulting firm that conducted the study for Pyregence.
DETECTING DESCENDING WINDS
For the Pyregence pilot test, the sodar system collected data from July 25 through October 26, 2020 [north of Santa Rosa in Northern California.]
Although a number of high-wind events occurred at the site during the pilot study period, a Diablo event that developed in late September proved particularly revealing.
Between 3 and 4 p.m. on September 25, strong winds developed 300–600 meters above ground level. Then, just after 1 a.m. that night, surface wind gusts of about 35 mph were recorded. The next day saw a similar pattern: strong winds developed aloft in the mid-afternoon and then gradually descended to the surface around midnight.
Both days, that is, saw high winds develop first in the upper atmosphere and then, about 8–10 hours later, descend to the surface. That time gap offers a window of opportunity to improve wildfire preparedness, especially during active fire situations.
[…]
BETTER DATA MEANS IMPROVED FIRE FORECASTS
The Extreme Weather Team concluded that a statewide network of strategically placed upper-air profilers could improve short-term forecasts of surface winds and help scientists who model fire behavior better understand the complex interactions of the atmosphere and wildfire.
How many sodars are needed? Although the scientists who led the study cautioned that they had not conducted a detailed analysis of this issue, they indicated that a relatively small number—perhaps in the range of 10–15 sodars carefully positioned across California—could dramatically improve the ability to predict strong winds.
“You don’t have to blanket every geographic area with instruments—there’s always a balance between the cost and the benefit,” Craig says. “But a handful of strategically placed sodars would fill gaps in our observing network and provide valuable information to support situational awareness and forecasting efforts.”
