August 23 through 24, partly due to the possibility of dry lightning
Storm Prediction Center’s Fire Weather Outlook for dry lightning August 23, 2020. SCTDRYT is scattered dry thunderstorms. ISODRYT is isolated dry thunderstorms. The colors of the labels apply to the same colors of the shaded areas.
The chance of lightning with little or no rain Sunday and Monday combined with high temperatures and low humidities has led to predictions of elevated fire danger.
Storm Prediction Center’s Fire Weather Outlook for dry lightning August 24, 2020. SCTDRYT is scattered dry thunderstorms. ISODRYT is isolated dry thunderstorms. The colors of the labels apply to the same colors of the shaded areas.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the northern half of California Sunday and Monday. The highest threat of dry lightning is Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Red Flag Warnings August 23, 2020
Thunderstorms with little or no rain is what started over 500 fires earlier last week. On Monday scattered or isolated dry thunderstorms could hit northern California and portions of Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. The storms are expected to move farther north Monday.
Nick Nauslar, a Fire Meteorologist at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise wrote about the forecast in a tweet at 11:30 p.m. Saturday, saying, “Hundreds of new fires are likely if this event pans out.”
The Hot Dry Windy Index (HDW) predicts higher than normal fire danger for the area of the Hennessey Fire in the Bay Area Sunday through Tuesday. On Sunday it is above the 90th percentile compared to the average for the date. The HDW is a fairly new tool developed for firefighters to predict weather conditions which can affect the spread of wildfires. It is relatively simple and only considers the atmospheric factors of heat, moisture, and wind. To be more precise, it is a multiplication of the maximum wind speed and maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the lowest 50 or so millibars in the atmosphere. The HDW only only uses weather information – fuels and topography are not considered by HDW at all. If the fuels are wet or have a high live or dead moisture content it will not be reflected in the data.
Red Flag Warning in effect for Northern California Sunday and Monday
August 24, 2020 | 7:45 a.m. PDT
Map of fires in the California Bay Area, August 23, 2020.
As if firefighters and residents evacuating or battling lightning-caused wildfires in California didn’t already have enough to worry about, another round of dry lightning is in the forecast for Sunday and Monday.
Thunderstorms with little or no rain is what ignited over 500 fires earlier last week. Now scattered or isolated dry thunderstorms could hit northern California and portions of Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado through Monday.
Nick Nauslar, a Fire Meteorologist at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, wrote about the forecast in a tweet at 11:30 p.m. Saturday:
Hundreds of new fires are likely if this event pans out. And thunderstorm outflow winds will impact some ongoing fires which would lead to an increase of fire spread/behavior. I hope I'm wrong and this forecast busts. But for now, data points to another big event.
So it’s not just the potential for new fires that that is cause for concern — the strong outflow winds associated with the thunderstorms could greatly increase the rate of spread of the existing fires. It can also put firefighters in even greater danger as the winds can shift 180 degrees very quickly changing the direction a fire is moving, possibly overrunning personnel.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the lightning fires in California, including the most recent, click HERE.)
Check out this video showing the effect the passage of a thunderstorm had on the just-ignited Hennessey Fire August 17 in Napa Valley. That fire has now burned 287,811 acres. The effect of outflow winds is temporary, but a blaze that is suddenly much larger can outstrip the ability of firefighters to quickly suppress it.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the northern half of California through Monday evening. The highest threat of dry lightning is Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
With existing shortages of personnel, equipment, engines, and firefighting aircraft, more fires would put further strain on the systems that are already being managed at the highest planning level nationally, Preparedness Level 5. In PL 5 over 80% of the nation’s incident management teams and wildland firefighting personnel are committed to incidents. Resource orders are being prioritized to fires across California and the west.
Aircraft that can map a fire using infrared imagery have not yet flown all of the large incidents and some maps and acreages are estimates. One of the two mapping aircraft owned by the U.S. Forest Service, N144Z which is the most capable, has not successfully mapped a fire since November 16, 2018 because an avionics issue has not been repaired. The Forest Service has hired privately owned mapping aircraft in an attempt to fill the void.
Below are updates on the largest incidents in California.
LNU Lightning Complex
Updated August 24, 2020 at 7:38 p.m. PDT
Location: North Bay
Counties: Napa, Lake, Yolo, Solano, Sonoma
Administrative Unit: CAL FIRE Sonoma-Lake-Napa
Acres: 350,030. The largest fire in the complex is the Hennessey Fire, 293,602. The Walbridge Fire west of Healdsburg is 54,068, and the Meyers Fire on the coast north of Jenner is 2,360.
Notes: The fires continue to actively burn above the marine layer in the heavy timber and thick undergrowth. Damage Inspection Teams have begun to survey areas where fire activity has diminished and it is safe to do so. The number of destroyed structures reflected may change as teams continue to make progress. Firefighting resources are limited due to the number of fires burning throughout California. Limited visibility due to smoke is hampering aircraft operations. Approximately 77,000 people have been evacuated.
Map of the SCU Lightning Complex and CZU August Lightning Complex of fires at 7:54 a.m. August 23, 2020.
River and Carmel Fires
Updated August 24, 2020 at 7:44 a.m. PDT
Location: Five miles south of Salinas, near Pine Canyon Rd. and River Rd.
Notes: The Carmel Fire 2 miles southwest of the River Fire has burned 6,695 acres and destroyed 37 structures.
Dolan Fire
Updated August 23, 2020 at 9:31 a.m. PDT
Location: on the coast 10 miles south of Big Sur
Counties: Monterey
Administrative Unit: U.S. Forest Service, Los Padres NF
Acres: 19,287
Structures destroyed: 0
Personnel assigned: 488
Evacuation information:
Notes: On private land and the Los Padres National Forest, threatening the communities of Hermitage, Partington Ridge, and Lucia. Multiple businesses, communications sites, parks and recreational sites are also threatened. On Saturday crews continued to focus on point protection operations around Hermitage and Lucia to the South, and Partington Ridge and Anderson Peak communications infrastructure to the North. As the threat diminishes these priorities will shift. After more resources arrive the plan will expand to include additional perimeter control operations. The fire was mapped for the first time Saturday night with a fixed wing aircraft. This accurate method is the reason for the large increase in the known acreage.
Map showing the locations of the River, Carmel, and Dolan Fires August 22, 2020.
August Complex
Updated August 24, 2020 at 7:44 a.m. PDT
Location: 18 miles southwest of Red Bluff
Counties: Tehama, Glenn, Lake, Mendocino, Trinity
Administrative Unit: Mendocino National Forest and CAL FIRE
Acres: 177,750
Structures destroyed: 10
Personnel assigned: 433
Evacuation information:
Notes: Of the 20 fires in the Complex the two largest are the Doe (136,430 acres) and Glade (13,088 acres). A Structure Damage Assessment Team has been ordered. Limited information is available about this incident.
August Complex Map, August 22, 2020. Incident Management Team.
Map of the SCU Lightning Complex and CZU August Lightning Complex of fires August 21, 2020.
Saturday, on the seventh day after a 72-hour lightning bust started hundreds of wildfires in California, firefighters are stretched thin attempting to suppress the blazes and protect residents and property. Shortages of personnel, fire apparatus, and aircraft are showing up statewide.
(To see all of the articles on Wildfire Today about the lightning-caused wildfires in California, including the most recent, click HERE.)
Nearly 12,000 firefighters are battling over 20 major fires and complexes of fires in California, most of which were started by about 12,000 lightning strikes. There have been 560 new fires in the last week, primarily a result of the lightning. Firefighters contained a large majority of the blazes, but in spite of their best efforts, over 771,000 acres had burned through Friday prompting evacuations of 175,000 residents. About 96 percent of CAL FIRE’s engines are committed throughout the state. The fires have killed at least five people and injured 33.
Governor Gavin Newsom said in a news conference Friday that he has requested the assistance of Australian and Canadian firefighters.
We’ve also reached out across the border into Canada for resources and support. And many of you up here recall, I think it was 2017, the support that we were provided and the support we provided in turn of some of the best wildfire firefighters in the world from Australia. We also have requests out for that talent as well.
The ability for the U.S. to send firefighters to assist Australia and New Zealand is authorized in a formal agreement under the Emergency Wildfire Suppression Act. Last winter the U.S. sent over 150 firefighters to assist with bushfires in Australia, and has been the recipient of assistance from down under on several occasions.
The Monterey Herald reported that due to the River and Carmel Fires prospective visitors to Monterey County have been asked to delay their travel plans. A joint statement released from U.S. Rep. Jimmy Panetta and four local politicians said, “We also ask anyone considering travel to Monterey County to delay your travel plans. This will ensure that already limited local resources are not strained.”
LNU Lightning Complex
Updated August 22, 2020 at 7:24 p.m. PDT, Aug. 22
Location: North Bay
Counties: Napa, Lake, Yolo, Solano, Sonoma
Administrative Unit: CAL FIRE Sonoma-Lake-Napa
Acres: 314,207. The largest fire in the complex is the Hennessey Fire, 261,793. The Walbridge Fire west of Healdsburg is 50,069, and the Meyers Fire on the coast north of Jenner is 2,345.
Notes: Significant fire growth is expected Saturday. Extreme fire behavior with short and long range spotting are continuing to challenge firefighting efforts. Fires that merged to become the Hennessey Fire include Gamble, Green, Spanish, 5-10, Morgan, and Markley Fires.
Map of the LNU Lightning Complex of fires at 9:26 p.m. PDT August 21, 2020.
SCU Lightning Complex
Updated August 22, 2020 at 7:25 p.m. PDT, Aug. 22
Location: South Bay
Counties: Santa Clara, Alameda, Stanislaus, Contra Costa, San Joaquin
Notes: Fire activity is expected to increase Saturday when the inversion lifts and smoke clears. The complex is comprised of approximately 20 separate fires broken into three zones; the Canyon Zone, the Calaveras Zone, and the Deer Zone.
CZU August Lightning
Updated August 22, 2020 at 7:27 p.m. PDT, Aug. 22
Location: South Bay
Counties: San Mateo, Santa Cruz
Administrative Unit: CAL FIRE San Mateo-Santa Cruz
Notes: Continued hot and dry weather is predicted for the remainder of the weekend and into next week. Damage Inspection Teams have begun to survey areas where fire activity has diminished and it safe to do so. Firefighting resources are limited due to the number of fires burning throughout California. Visibility reduced due to smoke has been hampering aircraft operations. Approximately 77,000 people have been evacuated.
River, Carmel, and Dolan Fires
Updated August 22, 2020 at 7:27 p.m. PDT, Aug. 22
Location: Five miles south of Salinas, near Pine Canyon Rd. and River Rd.
The Carmel Fire 2 miles southwest of the River Fire has burned 6,695 acres.
The Dolan Fire on the coast 10 miles south of Big Sur has spread to 8,500 acres on private land and the Los Padres National Forest.
Map showing the locations of the River, Carmel, and Dolan Fires August 21, 2020.
August Complex
Updated August 22, 2020 at 7:34 p.m. PDT, Aug. 22
Location: 18 miles southwest of Red Bluff
Counties: Tehama, Glenn, Lake, Mendocino, Trinity
Administrative Unit: Mendocino National Forest and CAL FIRE
Acres: 160,005
Structures destroyed: 10
Personnel assigned: 357
Evacuation information:
Notes: The Complex, comprised of 20 fires, grew by over 31,000 acres August 21. The two largest in the Complex are the Doe (120,875 acres) and Glade (86,028 acres). A Structure Damage Assessment Team has been ordered. Firefighters in a remote location were resupplied with a four-day supply of food via four motorized GPS-guided parachutes which descended through smoke.
August Complex of fires map, 3 p.m. PDT August 21, 2020.
The map shows the forecast for the distribution of near-surface wildfire smoke at 10 a.m. MDT August 22, 2020.
NASA, below, says there is going to be more of the same next week — lots of smoke. They apparently use a different unit of measurement than NOAA, above.
Smoke forecast for 9 p.m. MDT Wednesday August 26, 2020.
The largest fires in the Complex are the Sheep, Claremont, and Bear
August 21, 2020 | 7:26 p.m. PDT
Map showing the three largest fires in the North Complex in northeast California, August 20, 2020 — Bear, Claremont, and Sheep.
Many of the wildfires that started on the Plumas National Forest from lightning on August 17 have been contained, but three are large and active on the North Complex. It is being managed by California Incident Management Team 1 working closely and coordinating resources with CAL FIRE.
(To see all of the articles on Wildfire Today about the lightning-caused wildfires in California, including the most recent, click HERE.)
The largest fire in the complex is the Sheep Fire, a result of at least three fires merging into what is now a 10,241-acre blaze three miles southwest of Susanville, California. Three residences have been destroyed and 250 are threatened.
From the Incident Management Team the morning of August 21:
The Sheep Fire moderated overnight allowing crews to make considerable progress constructing dozer line in the areas of Golden Lane, Amesbury, Jura Road, and Old Archery and Scotts Logging Roads. This followed yesterday’s spread of the fire northwest into the front-country and into the flats moving into subdivisions on the southeast side of Susanville. Crews were able to defend the structures in those neighborhoods … and hold the line without losing any additional structures. Crews on the south and west sides of the fire took advantage of the favorable weather to halt the fire spread in those areas.
The Claremont Fire one mile south of East Quincy has burned 5,678 acres.
From the Incident Management Team August 21:
The Claremont Fire continued to spread toward the west side of Quincy-La Porte Road yesterday with a few spots on the other side of road, but crews were able to get to those spots and hold the fire to the west side. Active structure protection took place last night in East Quincy where 30 engines and other heavy equipment were battling blazes. Fire fighting objectives for crews today are centered around steering the fire away from town and the Highway 70 corridor.
The Bear Fire has burned 250 acres in steep, inaccessible terrain 10 miles southwest of Quincy near the Pacific Crest Trail.
