Above: Map of the McDannald Fire showing the approximate perimeter early Thursday morning May 3, 2018.
(Originally published at 8:43 a.m. CDT May 3, 2018)
The McDannald Fire in western Texas slowed Wednesday and officials were able to lift the voluntary evacuations that were in effect for the Davis Mountain Resort area.
A mapping flight at about 2 a.m. Thursday estimated the fire had burned 22,053 acres.
Jeff Davis County released the following information Wednesday evening:
With the cooler temperatures and higher humidity today the McDannald Fire has shown minimal fire growth. The east side of Paradise Ridge has little fire activity at this time and the head of the fire appears to be north of the Davis Mountain Resort.
Given these conditions, the County Judge and County EMC will lift the voluntary evacuation order at 8:00 PM this evening. Residents will be allowed back in after that time.
We appreciate the cooperation of all residents. Your actions allowed the structure crews in the Davis Mountain Resort to perform their work with minimal trouble.
3D map of the McDannald Fire showing the approximate perimeter early Thursday morning May 3, 2018.
Personnel are mopping up in some areas, but Southwest Incident Management Team #1 reports “zero percent” of the fireline is contained.
The Tinder Fire between Payson and Winslow Arizona received light rain and snow over the last 24 hours. This raised the humidity and a satellite overflight early Wednesday morning detected no large heat sources. However, cloud cover may have blocked the sensors on the satellite. A fixed wing mapping flight scheduled overnight had to be cancelled due to weather.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Tinder Fire, click here.)
On Tuesday fire crews burned off seven miles of existing Forest Service roads to create continuous containment lines from along the west flank. Wednesday’s objective is to carry this new containment line north to Mogollon Ranchettes.
Fire crews working with the support of Type 1 heavy helicopters built containment line entirely around the spot fire near Leonard Canyon Tuesday. They were able to hold the spot at approximately 5 acres. As conditions allow, helicopters will continue with water drops to suppress remaining heat.
Coconino County will be notifying property owners about structures that have been damaged or destroyed.
The Coconino County Sheriff’s Office evacuation for all Blue Ridge Tinder Fire affected communities north, east and west of Hwy 87 remains in effect. The evacuation will remain in effect until firefighters are able to contain the west and north flanks of the fire and are confident there is no longer a threat to communities.
FEMA Region 9 and other sources are reporting that the fire was caused by an abandoned illegal campfire.
After the precipitation, personnel are mopping up further into the burn area in some areas rather than having to concentrate on building fireline. But Bea Day’s Incident Management Team (IMT) on Wednesday reported “zero percent containment” on the fire. According to the National Wildfire Coordinating Group’s Glossary, 100 percent containment would be when “a control line has been completed around the fire, and any associated spot fires, which can reasonably be expected to stop the fire’s spread”. If, for example, 10 percent of the fire perimeter has fireline (where fuel has been removed) and that section of the perimeter is not likely to spread, some IMTs will call it 10 percent contained. Other teams release to the public a containment figure using very different criteria. This is why Wildfire Today rarely includes containment percentages, since they can be meaningless.
Above: 3D map of the McDannald Fire showing the approximate perimeter at 4:23 a.m. CDT May 2, 2018.
(Originally published at 10:55 a.m. CDT May 2, 2018)
The McDannald Fire 13 miles west of Fort Davis, Texas was very active Tuesday and early Wednesday morning. Pushed by 10 to 20 mph winds out of the south and southwest it spread to within a mile west of Tomahawk Trail on the east side of the fire.
Our very unofficial estimate based on heat detections Wednesday morning by a satellite put it at about 18,000 acres. Most if not all of the fire is north of Highway 166.
Officials estimate that 400 homes are threatened. Evacuations are ongoing in the Davis Mountain Resort community.
The area is under a Red Flag Warning Wednesday for strong southwest winds of 16 to 30 mph gusting above 40 mph along with relative humidity in the mid-teens. These conditions could be conducive to the fire continuing to spread to the northeast toward Davis Mountain Resort. The McDonald Observatory is 8 miles northeast of the fire.
Map of the McDannald Fire showing the approximate perimeter at 4:23 a.m. CDT May 2, 2018.
The Texas Forest Service reports that lightning started the fire on Monday. A Type 1 Incident Management Team with Incident Commander Mike Dueitt is mobilizing.
McDannald Fire, April 30, 2018. Texas Forest Service photo.
The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches for areas in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.
The map was current at 8:15 a.m. MDT on Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts.
Above: Blue Sky’s prediction for PM2.5 particulate matter for May 1, 2018.
Smoke from four large wildfires, agricultural burning, and prescribed fires are pumping a great deal of smoke and particulate matter into the atmosphere. These maps, created by the Forest Service’s Blue Sky program, show predictions for the amount of very small smoke particles, 2.5 micrometers in diameter or smaller, which can only be seen with an electron microscope. Fine particles, known as PM 2.5, are produced from all types of combustion, including motor vehicles, power plants, residential wood burning, forest fires, agricultural burning, and some industrial processes.
Blue Sky’s prediction for PM2.5 particulate matter for May 2, 2018.
The Tinder Fire has burned 11,420 acres in central Arizona and is being suppressed.
The OK Bar Fire in extreme southern New Mexico is 44,000 acres and is not being fully suppressed.
A Type 1 Incident Management Team has been ordered for the 2,000-acre McDannel Fire in west Texas 21 miles west of Ft. Davis.
The 5,800-acre North County Road 7 Fire is burning in northern Minnesota five miles south of the Canadian border 11 miles northwest of Greenbush. The fuels burning are mostly grass and swampland, said Christi Powers, an information officer for the Minnesota Interagency Fire Center in Grand Rapids, Minn.
(Originally published at 12:03 p.m. MDT May 1, 2018)
On May 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for May through August. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If their analysis is correct, in July and August California, the northwest, and the northern Rockies will experience above normal wildfire activity.
Below are:
The highlights of the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts; and,
Drought Monitor.
“The significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services units and the National Predictive Services unit.
“Preexisting drought conditions along with several wind events allowed for fire activity across the southern Great Plains and New Mexico to increase in April. By month’s end, activity was beginning to spread westward into Arizona and southern California. Entering May, a normal progression of fire activity is being observed as the Great Plains begins to receive its spring rainfall while the Southwest continues to be dry. What is atypical is the drought severity that is in place across the Four Corners Region and now southern California. The drought coupled with the carryover of an above average fine fuel growth from last year is expected to lead to Above Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential in May and June across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and southern California. In the East, the elevated potential across Florida and portions of Georgia will return to Normal potential as summertime convective patterns ensue.
“The peak of the fire season in the Southwest is expected to occur by late June, just before the onset of the annual monsoon season which should gradually bring their season to a close. Data suggests that the monsoon’s arrival should occur by early July. The projected focus of the monsoon’s early surges will be across New Mexico and Colorado but will refocus westward as July progresses. A normal transition of fire season activity west and north is expected through July as warmer and drier than average conditions develop across the western states. Of concern is the preexisting grass crop from 2017 and the new growth which will cure by July across California, the Great Basin, and Oregon. Higher, timbered elevations in these areas will become a concern by July as the past winter’s below average snowpack melts allowing for the high elevation fuels to become dry enough to support fire activity.
“In August, seasonal transitions focus the fire activity over the northwestern quarter of the country, though central and southern California also continue to experience significant activity. With significant carryover of fine fuels from last year and average grass crop growth this year, elevated fire potential will continue into August across many of the lower and middle elevations from the central Great Basin and California northward to Canada. Higher elevations in the Cascades, Northern Sierras, and possibly the Northern Rockies may also see elevated fire potential as well should warmer and drier than average conditions develop as expected.
“In Alaska, Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected as the state experiences a typical transition into fire season. Conditions across the state have been generally wetter than average while temperatures have been warmer than average. Since this pattern is expected to continue through the core of the Alaskan fire season, the potential for Above Normal Significant Wildland Fire Activity is low.”
